A polity in turmoil?

The current political flashpoint in Pakistan points towards the structural flaws in the country's politics and its waning economic agency. That Imran Khan — who was ousted very recently from power through a non-confidence motion in the national parliament — is back with immense popularity in Pakistan's political landscape, is an indicator of the degree of volatility in the country's politics. In a span of a few months, the roles have been reversed. While Imran Khan is now on an offensive, the Shehbaz Sharif-led PML-N-PPP government is forced to defend itself. Desperate in his efforts to come back to power, Imran Khan is eying a pre-scheduling of general elections. The momentum appears to be going against the Shehbaz Sharif government, and Imran Khan is looking to make the most of this opportunity. It will, however, be important to see if the ex-PM manages to tide through multiple battles he has waged — against the ruling party, the judiciary, the all-powerful army and the external factor in the name of the US. Imran Khan's quest for regaining power began instantly with his ouster as the Prime Minister. He, very tactfully, painted his ouster as a US-dictated "regime change." Surprisingly, his claims have found a resonance among people, particularly his staunch followers. It may be pertinent here to pinpoint the prominent factors that led to his ouster in April. In the first place, it was the rising discontent among people around inflation and other economic woes. The second factor, as articulated by political experts, was Imran's attempt to interfere into the composition of rank and file of the Army. The Army, by being 'neutral', ensured that his ouster was seamless. On economic management, even after Imran Khan's regime, things continue to be worse in Pakistan. The claims of the PML-N government that these are outcomes of Imran Khan-led PTI government's policies have helped them little. Bringing Pakistan's economy back on track is an onerous task and the time with the regime is far too short. Added to this is the constant political pressure by Imran Khan. It must be noted that Imran Khan's PTI performed exceptionally well in the recent by-elections — leaving Shehbaz Sharif with little room for complacency. Furthermore, Imran Khan's claim of having support from a faction of Pakistani Army — true or untrue — adds to the political momentum he is enjoying. With the retirement of Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa due in November this year, the army's rank and file is expected to undergo a re-shuffle. In fact, the timing of Imran Khan upping the ante against the PML-N government may have a lot to do with this aspect as well. Bajwa, however, enjoys a headroom for expansion of his term. The very perception that Imran Khan has managed to withstand the pressure from the Pakistani Army makes him look more formidable. The way forward for him, however, will not at all be a cakewalk. In fact, he is charged under Anti-terrorism Law for threatening additional session judge, Zeba Chaudhry, and senior officers of the Islamabad Police. He is also facing contempt of court proceedings. Furthermore, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has ruled that the PTI received illegal foreign money, which may lead to a political ban on the party. ECP has also abstained from hinting towards preponement of general elections. Though Imran Khan may be riding on a wave of popularity currently, he finds a massive institutional inertia against him. Two things can be inferred from PTI's current standing. First, people's desperation for change in political and economic circumstances are growing stronger. Imran Khan's promise of 'Naya Pakistan', despite its failure, still finds resonance among people. People may be ready to rally in a direction where there's even a bleakest ray of hope. The second inference is that the role of institutions, particularly the Army, is being challenged. Irrespective of his policy failures and intent, Imran Khan appears to be withstanding a massive institutional resistance, and there are people to support him. At the top of everything, people of Pakistan need to be rid of the structural flaws of its economy and polity. Is Imran khan intending to bring any such change? If yes, will he succeed in his pursuit? These are the moot questions.