A mixed legacy
After a record seven years and eight months, Japan's longest-running Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, this week announced that he would be stepping down due to the worsening nature of his chronic colitis. This is not the first time this life long condition has forced him to step down from his position. In 2007, he resigned abruptly due to his illness. He returned afterwards when new medicine made his condition more manageable. It should be noted that the condition in question is said to be aggravated by stress.
As he leaves behind a shrinking Japanese economy, an ageing population and a tense geopolitical climate — not to mention a steadily worsening COVID-19 situation — his legacy and what it would mean for his successor is, safe to say, a mixed bag. There are those who see Abe's tenure as a hard act to follow up. Others see his contributions as being limited, symbolised by the many core promises he failed to fulfil even after holding power for so long. What everyone can agree on is that he has enjoyed a level of longevity in Japan's chaotic political field which few others can ever hope to emulate. Born to a politically significant lineage, Abe has nevertheless been seen as a pillar of stability in Japanese and indeed, global politics. One of the major parts of his mixed legacy are his economic measures, collectively termed as 'Abenomics'. Envisaged as a way of stabilising the Japanese economy and reducing inflation, Abenomics rest on 'three arrows', namely monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. While his aggressive Abenomics did have moderate success in raising nominal GDP and stabilising government debt, the structural reforms have not had the desired effects. Indeed, Abenomics has been deemed by many within Japan to be a policy for the rich that has little in the way of benefits for the common man. Nevertheless, discussing the full scope and effects of Abenomics on Japan and the world as a whole is its own seperate discussion and an ongoing one as it seems that Abenomics will not be retiring with Abe. Regardless of who may come gto power in Japan, Abenomics looks to be the favoured method of getting the Japanese economy back on its feet following the ravages of COVID-19.
His other big ticket political agenda was the controversial effort to revise Japan's pacifist constitution and allow the country to reform and use its armed forces in a non-defensive scenario. Abe termed the new stance as "pro-active pacifism", a tool for a new age where Japan had to confront the threat of China and North Korea. Abe worked to centralise and boost Japan's military and security policy under this agenda, starting by making defence a full cabinet ministry, enacting a new state secrecy law and finally, attempting to reinterpret Japan's Constitution to allow ' Collective self defence'. This change would allow the Japanese Government to send troops to help allies under attack. While the Japanese public offered pushback to all his security and military policies, it was his attempts to revise the Japanese Constitution that saw the most significant agitation by the public, with his approval ratings taking an enormous dive during this time period. Nevertheless, he persevered.
Major policy points aside, his career has also been marred by many of the other stands he took. Under his Government, many have claimed that the Japanese Government is trying to rewrite selective parts of its history, particularly in regards to war crimes committed against China and South Korea. This has naturally strained relations with the two nations, with his 2013 visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo being the subject of much international condemnation. He was also involved in several scandals from the more recent allegations of favouritism to the older Japanese imperial succession scandal and even the various corruption scandals in his party and government.
It would be foolish to consider summarising a long and varied career like Abe's in such a small column. To cap off all the controversy, it must be stated that Abe has been a steady friend to India. He has pursued closer economic, cultural and military ties with India since coming to power. In fact, many of his critics have accused him of being too much of an Indophile in his decisions regarding India.
What is certain now is that Japan's next leader will not have an easy task. Not only are there monumental challenges to tackle but there are also significant chasms in the Government and the ruling party to navigate, a tight rope act that Abe had somehow managed till now. With no one to unite the quibbling factions, Shinzo Abe's prime ministership may indeed turn out be a tough act to follow in these troubled times.
