A foreseeable crisis

The migrant crisis that erupted following the announcement of national lockdown was not unforeseeable. The 21-day lockdown was indeed a hard gamble for the internal migrants who could rarely have seen the tide. But it was a necessary step by all means. The countrywide exodus of migrants heading to their respective homes arose the worst fears of the Union. In all likelihood, there now exists a possibility of massive transmission given how migrants were stranded in different places and chose to break the lockdown regulations. The Union government rushed to direct states to make arrangements to pay the migrant labourers where they were working as thousands could be spotted outside, blatantly flouting the national curfew. Their reason also cannot be condemned. The Prime Minister had urged everyone to be home and with this announcement all transportation across the country shut down, leaving migrant workers stranded. Naturally, they all want to head home. But by walking outside, they are clearly jeopardising the lockdown. If anyone contracts the coronavirus, they will put an entire community, and village, at risk. Cases will compound and India will not be able to flatten the transmission curve. To this effect, the Union government's order for a mandatory 14-day quarantine of those who travelled despite the lockdown in place at government facilities is a massive effort to contain the spread. The Centre also put elaborate instructions for monitoring of such persons in place for states to carry out proficiently. While the step is to ensure the safety of countless villages that these migrant labourers were heading to, the move will now see a number of government facilities coming up to quarantine them. It is no easy job to simply quarantine a large number of people. The strained medical infrastructure will now have to wait as many more cases may arise in the wake of such exodus. The infection has already spread to more than 1,000 people as on Sunday afternoon with the death toll reaching thirty.

But could this exodus be avoided in the first place? India has 45.36 crore internal migrants as per 2011 Census. Now that figure may include many who were already home in time and those who stood ground following lockdown orders. But a significant portion ventured out nevertheless. It shows that the PM's message did not quite reach the migrant workers or even if it did, the situation was not at all suitable for them to stay put. The very fact that visuals of thousands outside, walking great distances before being intercepted by police, affirms that the labourer crisis should have been thought of on priority. The Union government's order that rent should not be asked from such labourers or students says it all. Financial security is a big issue. For those working on daily wages, lockdown means adversity in surviving. Even as the government prepared an economic relief package to deal with the adverse situation, the exodus was inevitable given the abrupt lockdown. Even as PM apologised to millions for the abrupt lockdown, citing the necessity, it remains to be understood as to why the government did not swing into action once the WHO announced the pandemic on March 11. Cases were restricted to those coming from outside. Migrant labourers could have been reached out to and informed of the impending crisis and could have been asked to leave in time. With railways and buses shutting down, there was anyway no scope left thereafter for them to travel home. Flouting rules to walk home was perhaps the only option as panic seeped in; more of financial security and family safety than coronavirus. Still, what has happened cannot be reversed and at best, those who ventured out can be quarantined which is exactly what the government is doing now. States will have to ensure strict compliance of this order as there looms a dangerous threat of community transmission that can knock the nation off its feet and give an exponential rise to the number of cases.