Millennium Post

Don’t you dare underestimate me!

The BJP managed to perform splendidly in the just-concluded assembly elections with 4-0 lead over the Congress. Despite an emphatic victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and narrow escape in Chhattisgarh, first-time politician Arvind Kejriwal successfully stopped BJP’s caravan in Delhi where still no government has been formed. Similar was the scene for the BJP in 2003, when despite their victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the saffron party had lost the battle of ballots in Delhi. In 2003, despite registering victory in the assembly elections, BJP had poorly performed in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP was the ruling party then and it had gone to elections after Godhra incident and the allies were leaving the BJP at mid-way. Nevertheless these results augur well for the BJP as after six months they are going to contest general elections and the whole momentum seems to be in their favour.

Modi’s way to PM post

Even after winning four states, no new ally has shown desire to come up and join the BJP in Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s situation in Andhra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Odisha is poor and none of the regional parties have come up to any alliance. Though TDP may become a part of NDA but differences on Telangana issue can send them different ways. Similarly, B S yeddyurappa has made up his mind on coming back to BJP in Karnataka, party is still in confusion over it. So the question rises how BJP will reach the magic figure of 272 seat in Lok Sabha elections and how Modi will become prime minister.

Kejriwal’s damage to Modi

Though Aam Aadmi Party could not reach 36-seat mark in Delhi, still their success in a short span of mere one year is commendable. Excited with their win on 28 seats in Delhi, the AAP is all set to jump into the fray of Lok Sabha polls. With a clear mandate against Congress, AAP is likely to eat into BJP’s votes. Having seen their performance in assembly election, BJP can’t take them lightly as something bigger is on stake this time. So BJP high command must be mulling option and ways to tackle Kejriwal factor without criticising the Aam Aadmi Party publically as the Congress did.

Modi as PM candidate

The announcement of Narendra Modi as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate has definitely helped the party and their future prospects. The political pundits are denying any Modi wave, still Modi factor did make difference in the Hindi belt and as a result of which the BJP managed to mark victory in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Modi’s arrival is visible in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as large number of people are thronging his rallies. Assumptions are also being made that in current situation BJP can secure seats between 210 to 230. Besides, Modi will have to work harder as people are fed up listening to him criticizing Congress. It’s high time now for Modi to tell people what he will be doing after becoming the prime minister and what would be his policies on difference spheres and opinion of difference issues.
Probability of NDA government

If NDA manages to win 230 seats, they can still form their government as after election, two of the three – J Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik – may support BJP. If NCP also comes to BJP support, forming government for BJP will not remain a distant dream. A lot will depend on BJP’s own performance as when a party surges ahead, lot many small groups do come to support. These are the all speculations in political arena but it is still possible that BJP will announce a lot ahead of elections and try to woo the voters. It will be interesting to see how BJP tackles the issue.

The author is a political analyst
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