Predicted June-July rainfall with over 80% accuracy: IMD chief

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department predicted rainfall over Delhi in June and July with more than 80 per cent accuracy and reports of multiple false warnings are not correct, its chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said. The IMD director general said the impact-based forecast is a recent phenomenon and it will improve with time to become "more granular, specific and accurate" by 2025.

Impact-based forecasts provide information needed to act before severe weather events to minimise the socio-economic costs. It includes colour-coded alerts with risk levels and suggested actions. These are: green (no action needed), yellow (watch and stay updated), orange (be prepared) and red (take action).

Dismissing reports of 'multiple false rainfall warnings' for Delhi in June and July, the MeT office chief said, "It is not a fact. In June and July, the IMD predicted rainfall over Delhi with more than 80 per cent accuracy."

He, however, acknowledged that the weather bureau issued an orange alert for two to three days on one occasion which was withdrawn immediately.

"This is the beauty of weather forecasting it is a non-linear system. Two plus two is not equal to four in weather forecasting and atmospheric science.

"So, weather agencies across the world update their forecast every day. We also removed the orange alert when we thought it was not required," Mohapatra said.

He said the department started issuing impact-based forecasts just three years ago.

"It is a new phenomenon. There are only a few countries which are providing location-specific, impact-based forecasts. So, certainly, there are some limitations but it will improve over time," he said.

Mohapatra said, "For example, we had impact-based forecasts for cyclones for a long time. It has matured now and we have moved onto dynamic impact-based forecasts for cyclones."

Meanwhile, Rains played truant with Delhi on Monday despite the weather department predicting light showers, with the maximum temperature settling at 35.2 degrees Celsius — a notch above the season's average.

The capital recorded a minimum temperature of 25.1 degrees Celsius, two degrees below normal, according to the India Meteorological Department

(IMD).