Millennium Post

Crisil cuts GDP growth forecast to 6.5%

Rating agency Crisil on Monday lowered India’s economic growth projection to 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal from earlier forecast of 7 per cent in view of global economic concerns and muted domestic investment demand. The forecast has been scaled down in view of rising downside risks from recession in the euro zone, muted domestic investment demand, a domestic policy logjam, and limited fiscal and monetary space to stimulate the economy, Crisil said in a statement.

‘Unlike the swift V-Shaped recovery from 6.8 per cent growth in the worst phase of the global financial crisis in 2008-09, economic growth will remain flat in 2012-13, the level of 6.5 per cent achieved in 2011-12. This will make fiscal year 2012-13 the second consecutive year of lowest growth, in the past decade,’ said Crisil CEO Roopa Kudva.

According to the government estimate, GDP growth was estimated at 7.6 per cent. Industry growth is projected to improve to 5 per cent over a very weak base of 3.4 per cent growth in 2011-12, it said. Under the assumption of normal monsoons, agriculture is expected to grow at the trend rate of 3 per cent.
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