Can Modi keep up the momentum till 2014?

 Last week when Modi was in Chhattisgarh to address a meeting in Ambikapur all the arrangements were satisfactory, the venue was large and the security was adequate but   the crowd was thin. In a BJP ruled state, few turned up to hear the BJP’s star campaigner. The people in Chhattisgarh do not know who Modi is. This has raised concern within the BJP‘s leadership. If Modi fails to make an impact in the Assembly elections, that may be the end of the Modi story.

Sonia Gandhi is back in action. After the goof ups by her son Rahul and his advisers, Congress President Sonia Gandhi has now decided to launch a collective campaign by her, the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi. The thinking in the Party is that it was wrong to push Rahul alone in the election battle making it a Rahul versus Narendra Modi referendum. Meanwhile as the battle of the ballot begins in four states there is some hope trickling in claiming that Congress is likely to retain its Delhi citadel and would snatch Chhattisgarh from the BJP. In Madhya Pradesh too. The Congress is hopeful that even if it loses the state, its vote share is likely to go up and the number of BJP seats will be reduced. In Rajasthan they are banking on Kirorilal Meena who they hope like Arvind Kejriwal would cut into the BJP’s vote bank. Meanwhile though the number of Rahul’s election rallies are expected to be cut short but the party is planning his image makeover. He is being advised that he should not roll up his sleeves when he goes to deliver his speech. He is also being advised not to make his speeches personal.

Now it is the turn of Mayawati to be worried. Jatavs, the core base of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party are unlikely to vote for her in West UP in Lok Sabha elections of 2014. Jatavs in West UP particularly in the riot affected Muzaffarnagar region are extremely upset with Mayawati and have decided to vote along with the Jats for the BJP. The reason for their anger against Behenji is that during the riots when they had to leave their homes as they fled in search of security Behenji did not even bother to come and enquire about their welfare. The Jats who used them in killings of Muslims also gave them shelter. These Jats have turned against Ajit Singh and they might vote for the BJP. Amit Shah and the RSS men who are working round the clock in that region have convinced the Jatavs that if they vote for Mayawati in Parliament she will not become the Prime Minister but on the contrary she will go with the Congress to stall Narendra Modi. If they want they can vote for her in the Assembly polls

Despite Narendra Modi‘s projection as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate, the party leadership is keeping its fingers crossed. Rajnath Singh is already at work. He has been meeting people and seeking their assurance that if Modi fails to make it they must support him as the PM candidate. Rajiv Pratap Rudy recently gave dinner to all the Thakur MPs cutting across party lines. And they were reportedly asked to extend support to Rajnath Singh a Rajput irrespective of their party allegiance. The BSP Rajput MP Dhananjay Singh who was arrested in the murder of his domestic maid was also in touch with the BJP president and was set to join the BJP. Again the BSP’s other Rajput MP Vijay Bahadur Singh who was expelled by Mayawati after he praised Narendra Modi is all set to join the BJP. Sanjay Singh the Sultanpur MP of the Congress who has been sidelined all these years is also set to join the BJP. There can be an exodus of the Rajput MPs cutting across party lines if Rajnath emerges as a substitute of Narendra Modi.

The government should have reasons to get panicky. The CBI has reportedly found a diary from Aditya Birla of Hindalco on type of hawala Jain diary where some top names of the government and the Congress are there who have received kickbacks. When the CBI director was asked, he did not deny about the diary but said that all the material discovered have been given to the courts. Sinha, clearly, flouted the secrecy norm.IPA