We may see a second spike in COVID-19 cases in winter, says AIIMS Director

New Delhi: AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria, who is closely involved in building strategies for prevention, containment, and management of COVID-19 in India, stressed "we have to live with COVID-19 for some time" and said a second spike in cases might happen in the winter.

"We should look at this as a long-term battle stretching beyond a year," Dr Guleria, who was the guest at an online session of a leading newspaper, said. He said the focus should be more on hotspots to bring down the number of cases.

"The new strategies will have to be based on COVID-19 being around. There needs to be different strategies for different areas in the country. One size fits all approach won't help. There needs to be granular monitoring in hotspot areas," he added.

Dr Guleria, who is part of the core team of top officials reviewing and monitoring the pandemic in the country, said community participation had helped in containing the spread of the infection. On the way ahead, Dr Guleria said the private sector needs to become active to handle the COVID-19 crisis. "So far, we have not seen much participation from private hospitals," Dr Guleria says.

Speaking on antibody tests, he added: "The utility of antibody tests is more towards surveillance. It's not a diagnostic tool. The test has not shown much promise in clinical tests done during SARs and MERs."

He further added that the COVID-19 curve is still not going downwards in India. He said: "We need to find ways to implement this new normal of social distancing and economic activity. The solution lies in aggressive community-level participation. The war has to be fought at the community level and not at the hospital level."

As India gears for a staggered exit from the lockdown, Dr Guleria gave his insights on preparations for a possible surge in cases if curbs are eased and if the country has enough beds, paramedical staff, intensive care units, and ventilators to face a possible spike.

The All India Institutes of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) is a group of autonomous government public medical colleges of higher education that also houses medical schools and hospitals. With agency inputs