Regions, issues and narratives to look for in LS polls
NEW DELHI: With 12 days to go for the first phase of polling on April 19 in the 2024 seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, the tone and tenor of the hectic pitch of campaigning by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led NDA and the counter-attack by the Opposition camp, led by the Congress, have indicated that the key issues may narrow down to “Modi ki guarantee’’ pitted against Congress’ “25 guarantees’’ in its just-released election manifesto.
Having described his government’s past decade in office as “appetiser’’, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third successive term by promising the people a “main course’’ that will make India a developed nation. The BJP is banking on PM Modi’s personal appeal who has given the slogan of “Abki Baar 400 Paar’’ for the expanded NDA grouping and the promises that it has fulfilled, including the abrogation of Article 370, implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), banning triple talaq and, Ram Temple consecration in Ayodhya. The slogan is for the BJP to win 370 seats on its own while the NDA combine scores 400 in all.
The BJP has also been keen to wrap up alliances with regional parties like Janata Dal (United) of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and JD(S) in Karnataka. The Lotus party has not been able to enter into alliance with its former allies like Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab.
If the 2019 Lok Sabha performance is taken as an indicator there are mainly Hindi heartland states where the BJP-led NDA would like to retain its hold and there are some states where it hopes to make inroads in the coming general elections.
While the BJP’s performance in 2019 elections was to the maximum in states like UP, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand, there are states like Punjab and in the Southern belt like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala where the NDA had won small number of seats and it would hope to make some gains.
While the Congress leaders have billed the 2024 polls as the last chance for democracy to survive in the country, the BJP is setting the narrative for making India a developed nation by 2047. Prime Minister Modi has already dubbed the Congress manifesto as a document bearing the imprint of the Muslim League, the grand old party has pressed upon issues like unemployment, promise of creation of more jobs and a nation-wide caste census. The party is seeking feedback from the people on its election manifesto.
In this backdrop, the key issues to look out for in the coming elections will be how Southern states will behave towards the BJP, if the Hindi heartland will again favour the saffron party, how CAA will impact voting patterns in West Bengal and Assam. For the Opposition’s INDIA alliance, it will be a battle to keep a check on the BJP’s juggernaut and keep the ruling party’s tally down by as many seats as it can by effectively thwarting the challenges being posed by the BJP.
If the Congress has witnessed some high-profile desertions from its ranks over the past couple of months, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which rules Delhi and Punjab has seen Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal being jailed in the excise policy case. Will the Opposition narrative and charges against the BJP relating to misuse of Central investigative agencies to target Opposition parties and leaders, electoral bonds, price rise and unemployment click with the voters?
Coming days are sure to witness attacks and counter-attacks from both the sides as campaigning for the two-month-long elections moves into top gear and prominent leaders criss-cross the length and breadth of the country.
