Normal monsoon likely for fourth straight year
New Delhi: In a major relief to farmers preparing to sow kharif crops, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has on Thursday predicted normal rainfall for the fourth year in a row during the southwest monsoon season.
While announcing the first phase of the monsoon forecast, IMD's director general (meteorology) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal ranging from 96 per cent to 104 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season towards the end of May.
At a time when global food prices have surged at record level due to a shortage amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the prediction of a normal monsoon may play a key role in increasing the domestic production of essential commodities such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, lentils, gram, and edible oils.
Notably, half of Indians depend on farm-derived income and nearly 40 per cent of India's net-sown area does not have access to irrigation.
As in India, the monsoon season begins in June and continues till September, the IMD has predicted that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 99 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ± 5 per cent and the LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88 cm of the 1961-2010 period.
"All-India rainfall normal based on 1971-2020 (period) for the southwest monsoon season is 868.6 mm. It will replace the normal of 880.6 mm based on 1961-2010," he said.
"Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over many areas in the northern part of peninsular India, central India, along the foothills of the Himalayas, and some parts of northwest India," he said, adding that below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northeast, some parts of northwest India and southern parts of the peninsula.
Citing last year's data, Mohapatra said, "The IMD's rainfall forecast for the monsoon was largely correct, excluding August. However, if observed rainfall in 2021 is looked at and it is compared to the normal forecast for June to September, then it was found to be largely correct."
India had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The IMD further said that La Nina, which is a condition over the equatorial Pacific region, is likely to continue during the monsoon season.
"Also, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevailing over the Indian Ocean are predicted to continue till the beginning of the southwest monsoon season. Thereafter, an enhanced probability of negative IOD condition is predicted," the IMD DG said.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular cycle of change in wind and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics.
The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Nino and the cooling phase as La Nina. El Nino is generally known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India while La Nina increases it.
Commenting on the IMD's predictions, Ganesh Nanote, who is a cotton and soyabean grower from Maharashtra's Vidarbha, said, "Normal monsoon predictions always help farmers in preparing for kharif crops sowing. Besides, the availability of water for monsoon seasonal crops, better rainfall helps in recharging depleting groundwater resources."
