Falling vote share of BSP may have helped BJP in UP
New Delhi: Even though the ruling BJP has lost 57 seats in Uttar Pradesh, their vote per cent has gone up by 1.84 per cent than the last Assembly polls in 2017. The saffron party crossed its 250-plus tally in the state with 41.51 per cent votes in 2022, as compared to 39.67 per cent in 2017, according to the ECI data till 10.00 pm on Thursday.
This apart, data says that there are around 50 Assembly constituencies, where BJP won by a narrow margin, in many of them even less than 5,000 votes. But one of the most surprising is the fall of Mayawati's Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). The party is at worst and its lowest tally since 1991, winning only one seat.
In 2017 the party won only 19 seats, down from 80 in 2012. When it comes to the vote share, in 2017, BSP received 22.23 per cent of votes and in 2022, the party managed only 12.81 per cent, a plummet of 9.42 per cent in vote share. Political experts feel that 5 per cent votes of the non-jatavs ( Dhobi, Khatik, Pasis, Bhangi, Koris and Dhanuks) shifted to the ruling BJP as they come under the 'Beneficiary Category' in the state. The SC community, which forms almost 21 per cent of UP's population- 'jatav' and 'non-jatav' voters traditionally inclined towards the BSP since it was established. Jatav shares 11 per cent of votes and non-jatavs are 10 per cent.
'M-Y' in UP politics traditionally signified the Muslim-Yadav vote bank. But the BJP gave it a whole new meaning, be it the 'Modi-Yogi' combo or 'Mahila and Youth-centric schemes'- it's all worked out in the party's favour.
According to data, over 1.4 million tonnes of wheat, 0.95 million tonnes of rice, 0.10 million tonnes of chana (gram), 10.19 crore litres of soybean oil and 0.10 million tonnes of salt was the free ration that the Yogi Adityanath government distributed in UP between December 2021 to February 2022 as part the Covid relief package just ahead of the state polls.
This also impacted the women voters, who were considered to be the 'silent voters'. The higher women percentage voting added to this BJP's win rising above caste and social lines that sent it rations and ensured the improved law and order. During this election, data showed that the proportion of women voters who turned out to vote 70.42 per cent was higher than that of the men 68.78 per cent. At the same time, Samajwadi Party (SP) also announced in its manifesto that it would provide free rations for the next five years if voted to power.
On the other hand, during the 2014 general elections, the BJP made a considerable dent in the 'non-jatav' vote as it swept the state with 72 seats. It is the Pasis who went with the BJP in 2014 and in 2017 too. In fact, BSP's wooing of the Brahmin community does not seem to have made an impact in the elections this time. This time BJP had given the ticket to the former Governor of Uttarakhand, Baby Rany Maurya, to contest from Agra's Reserved SC seat to dent the jatav and non-jatav vote of the BSP. Maurya was made the jatav face of the BJP, and it looks like the gamble of the party has played off this time around. Whereas another chunk of non-jatav vote that drifted away from BSP seems to have gone the SP way.
This apart, the Samajwadi Party power corridor time and again claimed that the BJP and the BSP of working together to garner more votes for the ruling party, especially in the last two phases of the elections, which covers the entire eastern part of Uttar Pradesh.
On the other side, contrary to the speculations the ruling BJP performed well in western Uttar Pradesh where it was expecting farmers' anger and consolidation of Muslim votes against it. As reported earlier the Jat community was up in arms against BJP due to the farm unrest, non-payment of cane dues and it was joined by Muslims at most of the seats to ensure the defeat of BJP candidates. However, the results proved speculators wrong and BJP not only managed to win a majority of seats in this part but also pushed the SP-RLD to second place. In Jat and Dalit-dominated west UP districts, the strike rate of BJP has been highest.
Experts feel that it is only Prime Minister Narendra Modi's persistent election programmes, that brought the BJP in the winning position in UP. PM Modi conducted a total of 29 election campaign programmesof which 23 are physical rallies and 6 are virtual communication programmes since January 18.
