Controversial CAB to be tabled in RS today
New Delhi: Despite easy passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB) in Lok Sabha on Monday midnight, the ruling party — Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — may face considerable challenge in the passage of the Bill in the Upper House as some of the allies of the NDA may switch sides during the voting.
The CAB is scheduled to be discussed in Rajya Sabha on Wednesday. According to political experts, it would not be a 'one-party show' in the Rajya Sabha as the ruling party would be dependent on its ally partners for the passage of the Bill.
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and Shiv Sena have joined the Opposition club to oppose the CAB in the House. Notably, Sena had supported the Bill in the Lok Sabha demanding a 25-year ban on voting rights for those given citizenship under the CAB.
Given that there are five seats vacant in Rajya Sabha, the ruling party would need 121 votes in the House of 240 for passage of the CAB.
It's the numbers that is going to play a major role. As of now, the NDA is having 106 members in the Elders House, while the UPA has 62 members and non-NDA and non-UPA parties have 44 members in the House. In the game of numbers, the NDA is looking comfortable provided its ally — JD(U) – don't make a last-minute swing.
The allies of the NDA include BJP's 83 MPs, JD(U)'s 6 MPs, SAD's 3 MPs, RPI's 1 MP and 13 other members, which include eight out of 12 nominated members who have joined the BJP, while three out of remaining four nominated members are likely to support the Bill.
The BJP is banking upon 11 votes of the AIADMK and seven votes of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). Given that AIADMK, BJD and YSRCP had supported the Bill in Lok Sabha, the chances are very rife that they may support the Bill in the Upper House too. If BJP manages to get the support of these three, the total number tally of the ruling party would be 126, which would be five more than the required number for the passage of the Bill.
Apart from the UPA's 62, the other 44 members belonging to non-NDA and non-UPA parties have decided to vote against the Bill. The group of non-NDA and non-UPA parties include TMC with 13 members, Samajwadi Party with nine members, TRS with six, CPM with five, BSP with four, AAP with three MPs, PDP with two, CPI and JD(S) with one each. The TDP with two MPs may not support the Bill.
The UPA alliance constitute the Congress with 46 MPs, RJD and NCP with four MPs each, DMK with five MPs and three other MPs (1 from the Muslim League, 1 from Kerala and 1 nominated).
Apart from the parties standing with the ruling party and the Opposition, there are 19 other members in the Rajya Sabha. A lot will depend on them as well. These include one Rajya Sabha member of the Assam Gana Parishad,
one from Bodoland People's Front, 1 from MDMK, one from Naga People, 1 from PMK and 1 from the Sikkim Democratic Front. Apart from this, six Rajya Sabha members are Independents and others.
