It is certainly a tough fight for Anubrata Mandal, Trinamool Congress district president to ensure victory for party candidate from this seat because of BJP’s strong presence.
Talking to Millennium Post, Anubrata Mandal said that TMC candidates would win in all the 11 seats in the districts. He said that Congress – CPI(M) alliance would not be a factor at all and even BJP was insignificant. But if we go by statistics we find that it will be a tough fight for Trinamool Congress. TMC leaders and workers are trying hard to ensure a smooth victory for Naresh Chandra Bauri and are speaking of the development that has taken place in the district in the past four and a half years, but there are other factors like infighting, strength of Opposition parties and floating voters which need to be considered while conducting a survey.
Bijoy Bagdi of Forward Bloc defeated TMC candidate Santoshi Saha by nearly 3000 votes despite Mamata Banerjee’s call for change in 2011. Interestingly, BJP candidate Paltupada Dhibar got 10,083 votes though there was no pro BJP wave.
In 2014 Lok Sabha election Trinamool candidate Satabdi Roy got 60, 834 votes while Kamre Illahi of Left Front got 52, 941 votes and Joy Banerjee of BJP got 44, 514 votes. Congress got 4076 votes. Thus Congress is the junior partner in the alliance and does not have any vote bank. But BJP’s pocket votes cannot be ignored.
The question is will BJP be able to retain its vote bank? As there is no Modi wave in all probability it will not be able to retain its vote bank. Then the next question will be what percentage of BJP votes, will TMC be able to bring to its side.
As BJP’s organisational strength is weak it is difficult to retain the vote bank. People are talking about Trinamool’s development. Khadyasathi by which Rs 2 a kg rice is given to the economically challenged people has gone in favour of TMC. Dubrajpur being a reserved seat, the benefits the SC people have got like issuance of caste certificates will also go in favour of TMC. But arrogance of some leaders has come in the way. Though BJP’s presence is not very much, RSS activists are working from behind. Dubrajpur is one of those constituencies where RSS presence is strong. If the committed BJP voters stick to their decision then we will have to wait till May 19 to see in whose favour the electorate have cast their judgement.