Trudging along the steep slope

The COP28 was held from November 30 to December 13, 2023 in Dubai. The conference attracted headlines and became controversial because of the venue, as the UAE was a large producer of oil and had prospered on the back of profits made from selling oil. Not only that, the comments of Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 President who also runs Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), became controversial. Sultan Al Jaber said that there was no science indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels was necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. He later claimed in a press conference that his statements were misreported and the phase-out and phase-down of fossil fuels was ‘inevitable and in fact, essential’. Another controversy was created by the OPEC letter of December 6, 2023, which asked its members to reject any agreement that targeted fossil fuels, rather than emissions. The conference also proved to be full of tough negotiations on issues such as the global stocktake, just transition, global goal on adaptation and many other issues that were discussed in earlier conferences. It was also decided to begin an expert dialogue on mountains and climate change and an expert dialogue on the disproportionate impacts of climate change on children at the Subsidiary Bodies meetings in June 2024. One bright spot was the decision to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund set up in COP26, which was taken in the Opening Plenary itself. This was made possible by constant discussions all through the year preceding the conference.

Discussions

The various issues discussed at COP28 are as follows:

· Loss and Damage Fund: The Loss and Damage Fund, set up in COP27, was operationalised and saw initial pledges of USD 300 million. While this was a significant achievement, financial commitments from developed countries would have to rise substantially to make any difference to the most vulnerable countries. The consortium of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN Office for Project Services were designated as the host of the Santiago Network on loss and damage.

· Climate finance: Developed countries reaffirmed their commitment to the long-standing goal of providing USD 100 billion. However, progress on this continued to be slow because of the different estimates of aid/assistance being used by developed countries.

· Adaptation: The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), announced in COP27, was taken forward and a framework for this was decided. This included targets on various steps to fight climate hazards and improve climate-resilient food production, water management and infrastructure development by 2030. National and Regional Adaptation Plans were also mandated to be drawn up and updated in line with the framework. It was also decided to integrate the GGA Framework with the Loss and Damage Fund to ensure alignment of adaptation efforts with extreme climate events in vulnerable countries.

· Global stocktake: After long and difficult discussions, countries decided that emissions reductions have to be rapid and sustained and accompany a view to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming target. This would require ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), covering all greenhouse gases and all sectors, tripling renewable energy targets by 2030, accelerating phase-down of ‘unabated’ coal power and a move to adopt low-emission technologies, increasing use of electric vehicles and phasing out subsidies to fossil fuels.

· Just transition: It was agreed that the transition away from fossil fuels has to be fast enough so as to reach the net-zero target by 2050. However, this has to be done in an equitable and just manner, so that workers in general, and the fossil fuel industry in particular, are protected by providing them training in new skills. For this, the necessary financial support has to come from developed countries, who are the leading emitters of greenhouse gases.

· Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement: This Article deals with aligning financial flows with pathways toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. This was discussed in detail at the conference and it was agreed that the scale of climate finance needed to be scaled up, private sector financing needed to increase, climate risks needed to be factored into financial decision making and Article 2.19 (c) needed to be integrated into national policies on climate change.

The COP28 discussions led to an agreement on operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, but defied a consensus on the issue of global stocktake till the last. Ultimately, a compromise was reached on global stocktake, but it came at the cost of ambition levels. The language ultimately agreed on coal power was weak and there was no clarity on fossil fuel phaseout. Furthermore, disagreements on raising finance continued with developing countries calling out the developed countries for their failure to meet the long-standing target of USD 100 billion per year. Another issue on which no agreement could be reached was on the implementation of Article 6, which dealt with international carbon markets and carbon trading. The discussions on Just Transition also showed the complex nature of the negotiations and how it was difficult to balance the need for rapid emissions reduction with the social and economic impact on the workers and communities in fossil fuel industries affected by this transition.

Conclusion

The COP28 was held in a year which witnessed record high temperatures and these high temperatures led to more extreme and wetter hurricanes leading to flooding in large parts of the world. The highlight of COP28 was the global stocktake, a decision to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner and operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund. But stubborn issues such as climate finance, just transition and carbon trading continued to defy a solution. Another criticism of COP28 was that it was soft on oil producers, one of whom was also the host of the conference. While COP28 has something to cheer about, the pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was only beginning and the road ahead was very steep. The stage was set for further work in the Subsidiary Bodies before the next COP in Azerbaijan.

The writer is Additional Chief Secretary, Department of Mass Education Extension and Library Services and Department of Cooperation, Government of West Bengal