The ‘lifeline’ conundrum

International trade geography has taught how the presence or absence of safe routes for trade and transportation shapes a nation’s economy and relationships with other nations, writes Tim Marshall (2015) in Prisoners of Geography. The book describes the impact geography can have on international affairs and geopolitics.

In this piece, we shall briefly describe four major happenings, occurred during the last few weeks, those have the potential to reshape the trade geography of the world in 21st century. These are: (i) Israel-Hamas war in Palestine; (ii) 3rd Summit of Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRFIC) in Beijing; (iii) 1st Global Gateway Forum (GGF) of European Union in Brussels; (iv) Civil war between the Meity and Kuki communities in Manipur which shares a long border with Myanmar — India’s gateway to East Asia.

Israel-Hamas war

During the G20 Summit, India and Saudi Arabia joined the European Union and the United States in launching the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). IMEC proposed to connect three major ports, namely Mundra (Gujarat), Kandla (Gujarat), and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (Navi Mumbai) situated in the West coast of India, with the Haifa port of Israel. The operation of the port is overseen by the Haifa Port Company, which is owned by the Adani-Gadot Group. Citing a document prepared by the European Commission, DW reported that IMEC would include a rail link, as well as an electricity cable, a hydrogen pipeline and a high-speed data cable. The planned corridor would run around 4,800 kilometres (2,982 miles) and will have two separate wings: The eastern wing will connect India with the Gulf states and the northern one will go from the Gulf states into Europe. Once completed, IMEC will be used as an alternative route to ship goods to Europe, bypassing the Suez Canal.

Welcoming the announcement of the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it as the “largest cooperation project in our history” that would “change the face of the Middle East, Israel, and will affect the entire world”

In the Middle East, at least five ports had been shortlisted to be connected to the Indian ports which include Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Abu Dhabi in the UAE as well as Dammam and Ras Al Khair ports in Saudi Arabia. From Haifa in Israel, landing destinations for Europe include Piraeus port in Greece, Messina in South Italy, and Marseille in France. Initial estimates suggest that developing each of these IMEC routes could cost anywhere between USD 3 billion to USD 8 billion, reports The Hindu. IMEC is viewed as a modern-day Spice route and an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. (BRI).

IMEC was launched on the assumption of a possible normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia gave its blessing to Gulf neighbours — United Arab Emirates and Bahrain — who established relations with Israel in 2020, when the Abraham accords were signed. The Abraham Accords are bilateral agreements on Arab-Israeli normalisation signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on September 15, 2020. The previous US President Donald Trump took the initiative in negotiating the accord. But the Israel Hamas war has changed the fate of IMEC.

The region has been plunged into instability as the conflict between Israel and Hamas becomes the deadliest of five Gaza wars. A White House statement suggests that the US President Joe Biden believes that the normalisation process and the agreement that the USA was trying to reach between Israel and Saudi Arabia was what might have motivated Hamas to attack Israel on October 7.

Third summit of the BRFIC

During October 17 and 18, ten years after the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) had been proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, foreign leaders and the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General gathered in Beijing for the third Summit of Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRFIC). BRI is an umbrella term for (i) the Silk Road Economic Belt’ (ii) the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, and (iii) the Digital Silk Road. India skipped BRFIC for the third consecutive time.

As of July 2023, a total of 149 countries joined the BRI. Region-wise breakup of the participant countries are: Sub-Saharan Africa (44); Europe and Central Asia (35); East Asia and Pacific (25); Latin America and Caribbean (21); Middle east and North Africa (18); Southeast Asia (6). Representatives of over 140 countries, 30 plus international organisations, business sector, academia and non-governmental organisations attended the 3rd BRFIC.

The table indicates the BRI membership status of countries included in ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations), BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). Among these four major groups of nations, in the Asia Pacific region, only three countries, Bhutan, India and Japan, are still not members of BRI.

India decided to boycott BRI and BRFIC “to highlight its stand on sovereignty issue on the controversial China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is being laid through the Pakistan occupied Kashmir”. Nonetheless, India has genuine reason to be upset, as full control of Kashmir would have given India a window into Central Asia and a border with Afghanistan. It would have also denied Pakistan a border with China, thus diminishing the usefulness of China-Pakistan relationship.

In his keynote address on October 18, the Chinese President recapped that the BRI has drawn inspiration from the ancient Silk Road. It focusses on enhancing connectivity and aims to enhance policy, infrastructure, and trade, foster financial and people-to-people connectivity, inject new impetus into the global economy, create new opportunities for global development, and build a new platform for international economic cooperation. Over these ten years, China has stayed committed to this founding mission, reiterated President Xi.

In his address, the Chinese president announced eight major steps China would take to support the joint pursuit of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. These are:

* Building a multidimensional Belt and Road connectivity network: China will speed up high-quality development of the China-Europe Railway Express, participate in the trans-Caspian international transportation corridor, host the China-Europe Railway Express Cooperation Forum, and make joint efforts to build a new logistics corridor across the Eurasian continent linked by direct railway and road transportation;

* Supporting an open world economy;

* Carrying out practical cooperation: China will promote both signature projects and “small yet smart” livelihood programmes;

* Promoting green development: China will continue to deepen cooperation in areas such as green infrastructure, green energy and green transportation, and step up support for the BRI International Green Development Coalition;

* Advancing scientific and technological innovation;

* Supporting people-to-people exchanges;

* Promoting integrity-based Belt and Road cooperation;

* Strengthening institutional building for international Belt and Road cooperation: China will continue to host the BRF and establish a secretariat for the Forum.

First Global Gateway Forum (GGF) of the EU

The European Union announced, on October 25, a portfolio of multimillion dollar deals at its first Global Gateway Forum (GGF) — the bloc’s new infrastructure partnership plan that is seen as an alternative to China’s worldwide Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The GGF kicked off in Brussels, featuring 90 top government representatives from more than 20 countries, including 40 leaders and ministers, mostly from across the Global South. Launched in late 2021, Global Gateway has earmarked 300 billion euros (USD 316 million) in a bid to streamline the EU’s investment and development cooperation across the globe.

The US President Biden also claimed that the US is working with other G7 members to compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through a network of infrastructure projects, including a railroad connecting Saudi Arabia with Europe, reports India Today.

Civil war in Manipur

Sectarian violence in Manipur has claimed over 175 lives and injured more than 1,000 since a conflict between the majority Meiteis and minority Kukis began in May 2023. Thousands of others have been displaced. The mostly Hindu Meiteis live in Manipur’s more prosperous Imphal Valley, while the largely Christian Kukis live mostly in the surrounding hills. Due to this prolonged ethnic conflict, the future of Asian Highway and Trans Asian Rail Network projects have become uncertain, as both the road and rail links are expected to enter into India from Myanmar (Burma) through Moreh — a town in Kuki-dominated Tengnoupal district in Manipur, bordering between India and Myanmar. On October 31, a Sub-Divisional Police Officer (SDPO) stationed in Moreh, was allegedly shot dead by suspected Kuki militants.

As China, in its unrelenting bid to propel the BRI initiative, has gained access to Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, circumventing India, through China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the ‘bypassed’ India is now desperately trying to revive the Trans Asian Highway (20,557 kilometre long highway which when completed will join Tokyo with European route E80) and Trans Asian Railway network (which will connect Japan with Istanbul) projects, reports Millennium Post. But prolonged ethnic conflicts in that region have jeopardised India’s plan.

Observations

Truncated Kashmir and emergence of an independent nation, in Bangladesh, between the Indian state of West Bengal and its north-eastern region have made India a ‘prisoner of geography’.

India’s ambitious plan to create a new trade route — India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) — has faced a roadblock due to an intense war between Hamas and Israel, which is likely to spread to neighbouring countries of the region. Prolonged civil conflicts in Manipur and increasing political unrest in Myanmar have made the Trans Asian Highway and Trans Asian Railway Network projects unrealisable in near future.

Currently, all trade between India and Europe happens via the sea route that passes through the Suez Canal, controlled by Egypt. The Suez Canal is a vital component of China’s Maritime Silk Road, a strategic piece of the Belt and Road Initiative. Recently, Egypt and China have signed several agreements on infrastructure construction and improvements. In addition to this, Egypt was not among the countries that launched IMEC on September 9. The IMEC MoU was signed by India, the US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, European Union, Italy, France and Germany, in the presence of all their leaders. The Hamas-Israel war will compel India to continue its trade with Europe through the Suez Canal.

As all the immediate neighbours (barring Bhutan) and regional trading partners (with the exception of Japan) of India are participants of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, India should rethink its policy on BRI participation. Sudheedra Kulkarni, noted political analyst and socio political activist, has rightly observed that the best, easiest and cost-effective way for India to have access to south Asia (Pakistan and Afghanistan), West Asia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe, is by joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to him, “India and China should be partners, not rivals, in the emerging New World Order to make it better, fairer and brighter for all”.

India cannot remain isolated as a ‘Prisoner of Geography’. It should explore new avenues to come out of its constrained space to emerge as a significant economic power in 21st century.

Views expressed are personal