Finding Feet amid Fragments

Enormous quantities of water have flowed through the Indus, Ganga, Volga and Huang He Rivers during the last six weeks since India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan on April 23, 2025, citing national security concerns, following a terrorist attack in Kashmir. A brief war (7-10 May) between India and Pakistan, which ended in a sudden ceasefire, mediated by the US President Donald Trump, apparently has tilted India to the China-led bloc–BRICS Plus—which President Trump vowed to destroy to ‘Make America Great Again’. Though India is one of the founding members of the Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) bloc-formed in 2009, the Narendra Modi-led government seemingly surrendered to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat. On February 14, US President Donald Trump issued a blunt warning to BRICS nations, threatening a 100 per cent tariff on all imports into the United States if they proceed with launching a common currency. Speaking just hours before a scheduled meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump dismissed the economic bloc’s relevance, declaring, “BRICS is dead.” Remarkably, when Trump’s tariff hikes had triggered a global backlash led by China and most of the countries, including US allies, planned to retaliate, India continued its engagement with the USA for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), eyeing trade opportunities.

The brief Indo-Pak war, during May 7-10, has exposed India’s isolation among the Western countries, which amended India’s recent geo-strategic policy with the BRICS bloc. For example, the Indian External Affairs Minister did not attend the BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting in Rio de Janeiro City, held on April 28-29. The meeting marked a historic milestone as the first official agenda of BRICS plus Foreign Ministers following the group’s expansion in 2024. Brazilian Minister Mauro Vieira coordinated the proceedings. At present, BRICS plus is a ten-member bloc comprising five old members—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—plus Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia. BRICS Foreign Ministers conveyed positions on reforming global governance, strengthening multilateralism, and promoting peace. It ended with one common belief: multilateral cooperation was the answer for promoting peace and development. In three discussion panels, the ministers addressed global and regional crises; reforming international institutions for a more inclusive and sustainable governance; and the role of the Global South in strengthening multilateralism.

In the absence of the Minister, Secretary (Economic Relations), Dammu Ravi represented Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meeting. The 15th BRICS Trade Ministers’ meeting which was held on May 21 under the presidency of Brazil, with the theme ‘Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance’, was also not attended by the concerned Indian minister. Representing India at the meeting, Yashvir Singh, the Economic Adviser with the Department of Commerce, emphasised the need to eliminate restrictive trade measures within the grouping that disrupt critical supply chains. This statement was targeted at China for imposing export restrictions on rare earth elements.

The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is expected to travel to Rio De Janeiro next month to attend the BRICS summit, scheduled during 6-7 July, reports The Hindu. The BRICS gathering is closely watched by the US Trump administration, which sees it as a counterweight to the G-7 group of developed nations. Indian PM’s decision to attend the event comes soon after the four-day conflict with Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also expected to attend the Canada-hosted Group of Seven (G7) summit as the Indian leader has received an invitation to the summit being held from June 15 to 17. Though India is not a member of the G-7, a grouping of seven of the world’s richest countries, comprising the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, and Japan, this South Asian nation has been invited to join the summit every year since 2019.

According to Reuters, the Indian government may consider sending an industry delegation to Beijing as no Indian company has received approval to import rare earth magnets from China since April 4 when the world’s largest rare earth magnet supplier and exporter, imposed export restrictions on seven medium to heavy rare earth elements and several magnets, requiring exporters to obtain licences. China has introduced a tracking system for its rare earth magnet sector as its export restrictions on them begin to cut off customers around the world.

Resurgent BRICS

The unrealistic trade war initiated by President Trump is helping China to consolidate its grip on the BRICS plus bloc. It has emerged as the undisputed leader of the Global South against the hegemonic dominance of G7, led by the USA. The BRICS-5 countries overtook the G7 countries’ share of the world’s total gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2018. By 2024, the difference had increased even further, the BRICS-10 now holding a total 35 per cent of the world’s GDP compared to 30 per cent held by the G7 countries.

President Trump’s misguided policies have put the US economy in trouble. Even his most trusted advisor, Elon Musk, has gone against him. It appears the ‘bromance’ between the world’s most powerful leader and richest man is over. Trump told the media that he was “very disappointed” with the man whom he once authorised to slash federal funding. Musk initially threatened to decommission a crucial spacecraft owned by his SpaceX Company, only to walk back from it hours later. Meanwhile, his other company, Tesla, saw share prices drop by 14 per cent. Last week, Musk officially left his government post, where he was tasked with rooting out excessive spending through Doge, reports BBC. On June 5, the US President spoke to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Thursday’s call was the first time the two leaders have had spoken since Trump launched a trade war with Beijing in February. Chinese state media reported that the call happened at the White House’s request. Trump wrote on social media that the hour-and-a-half conversation was primarily focused on trade and had “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries”.

While India was busy negotiating with different G7 members, China strengthened its ties with other BRICS members. During Xi Jinping’s 11th visit to Moscow since 2013, for the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war, which Russia celebrates on May 9 as Victory Day, China and Russia pledged to further deepen their already “no limits” partnership. Xi and Putin pledged to stand together, as ‘friends of steel’, against the USA, reports Reuters. On May 27, Malaysia organised the first trilateral summit between ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China. Though both China and the GCC—comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman—have established partnerships with ASEAN, this is the first time the Southeast Asian bloc has expanded a mechanism to include both a regional organisation and dialogue partner country. In January 2025, Indonesia—one of the founding members of ASEAN—became the 11th member of BRICS. Indonesia’s entry into BRICS marks a strategic milestone for its domestic economy and global trade landscape, said Alexander Michael Tjahjadi, an Indonesian economist at the think tank Indonesia China Partnership Studies. He stressed that BRICS is not merely an international cooperation platform but also a medium for developing countries to exchange experiences and best practices, providing tangible economic benefits.

Iran joined BRICS in January 2025, and made its first official appearance at the 11th BRICS Parliamentary Speakers’ Meeting held on June 4 in Brasília, where top officials of BRICS member countries were engaged in discussions on governance, economic cooperation, and defence strategy. Iran’s participation signals its growing diplomatic influence within BRICS, strengthening its ties with member nations on economic, security, and geopolitical matters. According to a Wall Street Journal report (June 5) Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ballistic missile ingredients from China as part of an effort to rebuild its military capabilities while navigating on-going nuclear talks with the United States.

Egypt was one of the first countries to support China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and is a natural partner in building the Belt and Road. With Egypt’s entry into the BRICS grouping with China, the fruits of economic cooperation between the two sides have multiplied, by a fixed and shared vision to modernise the countries of the Global South and global political and economic institutions in a way that serves the interests of the developing Global South. With the inclusion of Egypt and Ethiopia, Africa now has three member nations in BRICS-10 bloc.

China hosted the Ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC-9) Summit in Beijing in September 2024. The summit’s theme, “Joining Hands to Advance Modernisation and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future,” reflected a focus on strengthening bilateral relations and promoting shared development. China pledged 360 billion Yuan (approximately USD 50.7 billion) in financial support to Africa over the next three years. Leaders from all 53 African countries, excluding Eswatini, participated in the meeting. FOCAC 9 concluded with the adoption of two major agreements: the “Beijing Declaration on Jointly Building an All-Weather China-Africa Community with a Shared Future for the New Era” and the “FOCAC Beijing Action Plan (2025-2027)”. Importantly, the Beijing Declaration praises FOCAC as a model for “South-South Cooperation,” where countries of the Global South help each other achieve development, suggesting that China-Africa cooperation differs from the top-down, donor-driven approach taken by developed nations when engaging with Africa. The Chinese government hailed these as significant diplomatic achievements.

Latin American leaders gathered in Beijing in May for the fourth ministerial summit between the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and China. Founded in 2010, CELAC is a regional intergovernmental organisation that brings together all the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The China-CELAC Forum was established in 2014 to promote partnerships between the regions. Although the summit was officially a ministerial meeting, several national leaders attended: Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Gabriel Boric of Chile, and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—all travelled to Beijing for the opening ceremony. President Xi’s speech included the announcement of a CNY 66 billion (USD 9.15 billion) credit line to support development in CELAC countries.

It may be recalled that Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated a massive deep-water port in Peru in November 2024, which he called a “21st-century maritime Silk Road. “The Chancay mega port, a USD 1.3 billion (Euro 1.23 billion) investment from China, has transformed the quiet fishing town on Peru’s coast and highlights China’s growing influence in Latin America. It is South America’s first Chinese-funded port which aims to streamline trade between South America and Asia and marks a significant step in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As expected, it has raised alarm bells in Washington. In another significant development, Peru’s economy ministry said in a recent statement that the country will seek a high-level meeting with China and Brazil to advance a planned bi-oceanic railway project to avoid using the Panama Canal. The proposed railway would connect Brazil to a new port on Peru’s Pacific coast, creating a trade route with China that would allow it to avoid routes going through the Panama Canal and around the southern tip of South America.

China is also developing global institutions as an alternative to the existing ones established by the Western colonial powers. Establishment of the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed), on May 30, 2025, is one such institution—hoping it will rival the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as the world’s leading conflict resolution body. The Convention on the Establishment of the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed) was signed into law on May 30, in a ceremony presided over by Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, in Hong Kong. The ceremony was attended by representatives from several countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, and Serbia. Representatives from 20 international bodies, including the United Nations, also attended the ceremony. The other important multilateral system—the WTO’s dispute settlement system—which was established to prevent trade-related disputes, has been made defunct by the USA. Now, the WTO’s dispute settlement function is at risk of collapsing as the United States has blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO’s Appellate Body due to complaints over judicial activism at the WTO and concerns over US sovereignty. IOMed may evolve as an alternative to the ICJ and the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Mechanism (DSM).

BRICS Vs G7: a Clash of Civilisations

The relationship between BRICS and G7 can be viewed as a clash of cultures, with each group representing different values and approaches to governance and international affairs. G7 believes that they have the “civilisational” mandate to preserve the hegemony of white power and tell the world how it should be run. BRICS is generally considered a non-Western bloc that seeks to create a counterpoint to what they perceive as Western dominance in global governance. This includes challenging Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank, the IMF, and the Group of Seven (G7).

As the Western-led global order has failed to solve the major challenges of the world, conflicts persist, and the United Nations has not been able to prevent wars. War has now become a common aspect of contemporary geopolitics, and many countries around the world continue to suffer from fundamental issues like food security, basic education, and human rights. This indicates that the current global order is not only closed but also incapable of addressing these fundamental problems in a changing world. The Global South, therefore, is increasingly attracted to BRICS, which promotes itself as an economic platform focused on the exchange of views, experiences, and prosperity, aiming to restore economic stability, which in turn would contribute to political stability. While the G7 has only one non-Euro-Atlantic member, Japan, BRICS has diverse representation across the globe. Moreover, all the members of the G7 have a history of colonial exploitation and appropriation of wealth from their colonies.

Samuel P Huntington (1993) in his seminal essay titled, ‘The Clash of Civilisations?’ wrote, ‘During the Cold War, the world was divided into the First, Second and Third Worlds. Those divisions are no longer relevant. It is far more meaningful now to group countries not in terms of their political or economic systems or in terms of their level of economic development but rather in terms of their culture and civilisation.

According to his hypothesis, the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and

groups of different civilisations. The clash of civilisations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilisations will be the battle lines of the future. Conflict between civilisations will be the latest phase in the evolution of conflict in the modern world.

The emerging ‘trade war’ between China-led BRICS and USA-led G7 may be examined using Huntington’s hypothesis—’clash of civilisations’. As India’s clientele class—the affluent and influential individuals—exhibits a varying degree of pro-Western attitudes with evidence of a strong embrace of Western culture, traditions, and values, India does not fit into the BRICS’ anti-Western cultural war against the G7. India is a misfit in the BRICS+ bloc.

The writer is a professor of Business Administration who primarily writes on political economy, global trade, and sustainable development. Views expressed are personal