Whitewashed!

In the 2022 Global Hunger Index, released on October 15, India ranks 107th out of 121 countries. With a score of 29.1, India has a level of hunger that is termed as serious (GHI score 20-<35). However — like last year — the Ministry of Women and Child Development not only dismissed the GHI but also questioned the intent of its authors. The Press statement of the Ministry alleged that the "Global Hunger Index is an erroneous measure of hunger and suffers from serious methodological issues. Misinformation seems to be the hallmark of the annually released Global Hunger Index". As the statement has described the report as part of a "consistent effort'' to "taint India's image", in this piece, we shall primarily focus on the methodology used to measure GHI.

Methodology

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a tool for comprehensively measuring and tracking hunger at global, regional, and national levels. Each country's GHI score is classified by severity, from low (<10) to extremely alarming (>50).

While describing the methodology the authors have confessed that the problem of hunger is complex, and different terms are used to describe its various forms. To begin with, they have defined a few terms which are more often used in the report and in measuring the index. Here we quote a few such definitions as mentioned in the report:

Hunger is usually understood to refer to the distress associated with lack of sufficient calories. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations defines food deprivation, or undernourishment, as the habitual consumption of too few calories to provide the minimum dietary energy an individual requires to live a healthy and productive life, given that person's sex, age, stature, and physical activity level

Undernutrition goes beyond calories and signifies deficiencies in any or all of the following: energy, protein, and/ or essential vitamins and minerals. Undernutrition is the result of inadequate intake of food in terms of either quantity or quality, poor utilisation of nutrients due to infections or other illnesses, or a combination of these immediate causes. These, in turn, result from a range of underlying factors, including household food insecurity; inadequate maternal health or childcare practices; or inadequate access to health services, safe water, and sanitation.

Malnutrition refers more broadly to both undernutrition (problems caused by deficiencies) and overnutrition (problems caused by unbalanced diets that involve consuming too many calories in relation to requirements, with or without the low intake of micronutrient-rich foods). Overnutrition, resulting in overweight, obesity, and non-communicable diseases, is increasingly common throughout the world, with implications for human health, government expenditures, and food systems' development. While overnutrition is an important concern, the GHI focuses specifically on issues relating to undernutrition.

GHI was first released by the International Food Policy Research Institute and Welthungerhilfe in 2006. Since then, it has been published with updated data each year. Previously, the Index included the following three, equally weighted, no standardised indicators:

⁕ The proportion of the population that is undernourished;

⁕ The prevalence of underweight in children under five; and

⁕ The under-five mortality rate.

In 2015, the formula was revised to replace child underweight with child wasting and child stunting and to standardise each of the component indicators. The four major components of the GHI are:

⁕ Undernourishment: the share of the population with insufficient caloric intake. It measures inadequate food access, an important indicator of hunger, and refers to the entire population, both children and adults. It is used as a lead indicator for international hunger targets, including Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger)

⁕ Child stunting: the share of children under age five who have low height for their age, reflecting chronic undernutrition. It goes beyond calorie availability, considers aspects of diet quality and utilisation and reflects children's particular vulnerability to nutritional deficiencies. It is sensitive to uneven distribution of food within the household

⁕ Child wasting: the share of children under age five who have low weight for their height, reflecting acute undernutrition. As in the case of stunting, this indicator also goes beyond calorie availability.

⁕ Child mortality: the share of children who die before their fifth birthday, partly reflecting the fatal mix of inadequate nutrition and unhealthy environments. It reflects that death is the most serious consequence of hunger, and children are the most vulnerable. Stunting and wasting only partially capture the mortality risk of undernutrition.

Each country's GHI score is calculated based on a formula that combines the above four indicators that together capture the multidimensional nature of hunger. GHI scores are calculated using a three-step process:

⁕ Values are determined for the four component indicators for each country, drawing on the latest published data available from internationally recognised sources.

⁕ Each of the four component indicators is given a standardised score based on thresholds set slightly above the highest country-level values observed worldwide for that indicator since 1988.

For example, the highest value for undernourishment estimated in this period is 76.5 per cent, so the threshold for standardisation is set a bit higher, at 80 per cent. In a given year, if a country has an undernourishment prevalence of 40 per cent, its standardised undernourishment score for that year is 50. In other words, that country is approximately halfway between having no undernourishment and reaching the maximum observed level.

⁕ The standardised scores are aggregated to calculate the GHI score for each country. Undernourishment and child mortality each contribute one-third of the GHI score, while child stunting and child wasting each contributes one-sixth of the score.

This calculation results in GHI scores on a 100-point scale, where 0 is the best score (no hunger) and 100 is the worst. Data used in the calculation of GHI scores come from various UN and other multilateral agencies, as shown in Table 1. The GHI scores for India reflect the latest revised data available for the four indicators.

In this context, it should be mentioned that since 2015, there has been a change in the methodology of GHI ranking. In 2014, countries with GHI score less than 5 (a total of 44 countries) had been placed separately and did not form part of the rankings presented in the main table. A similar table was presented in the 2015 GHI report, wherein 13 nations with GHI score less than 5 were placed separately. However, in 2016, the nations with GHI scores below 5 were placed in the main table, thus causing a drastic shift in the rankings of nations. India's ranking dropped thus from 55 in 2014 to 97 in 2016. Simply put, if the nations with GHI score less than 5 were placed in the main table prior to 2016, then India's rank in 2014 would have been 55+44=99, and its 2015 rank would be 80+13=93.

If one has to analyse the GHI ranks of India, one should refer to table 2 where GHI scores are measured as per the new methodology followed since 2015.

Table 2 indicates that, between 2015 and 2022, though the GHI score has marginally deteriorated, the global rank of India has fallen drastically from 93 to 107. It is very likely that, during this period, countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have improved their GHI score, compared to their much larger neighbour India.

Instead of making senseless noises, Indian policymakers should ponder why the countries which boast of having the capacity to 'feed the world' are unable to feed their own citizens. It may be recalled that last May, the Indian Prime Minister, while recalling his conversation with the US President, said, "India is ready to supply food stocks to the world from tomorrow", reported the Economic Times.

Table 1 suggests that the child mortality rate has come down in recent years. But in India, 8.8 lakh children under five years – the highest in the world – died in 2018, says UNICEF. The report, which was released in October 2019, pointed out that malnutrition caused 69 per cent of under-five deaths in India. The report, 'State of the World's Children 2019', came a day after the Global Hunger Index placed India at the 102nd rank in the 'serious' category.

It may also be recalled that a petition, filed last year jointly by activists Anun Dhawan, Ishann Dhawan and Kunjana Singh, which drew the attention of the Supreme Court, highlighted how starvation deaths continued to eat into the right to life and dignity of society, and a "radical" new measure like community kitchen was needed to be set up across the country to feed the poor and the hungry. Responding to that, the Bench advised the Union Government to ask States to provide data on malnutrition, starvation deaths and other related issues within two weeks. When this question on deaths drew a near blank from the Union government, the Bench asked the Centre to explore the possibility of a "model" community kitchen scheme by which it could support the states to ensure food security for the poor.

The World Bank's report, 'Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting the Course' declared, "the COVID-19 pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty in decades". Given that India contributes significantly to global poverty levels due to the sheer size of its population, the World Bank flagged that the lack of official data on poverty from India had become a hindrance in drawing up global estimates. Since 2011, the Indian government has stopped publishing data on poverty. It noted that due to the lack of official data, the World Bank had relied upon the findings of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's (CMIE's) Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS). The report said the World Bank chose to use CHPS data for India over its own paper – published in April 2022 and estimated that 2.3 crores Indians additionally slipped into poverty in 2020. Poverty in India was "significantly higher" than its own estimates, the World Bank report said.

Global hunger is on the rise

"Zero hunger" by 2030 was one of 17 sustainable development goals set out by the UN in 2015. Now, the UN predicts that the number of people affected by hunger will surpass 840 million by 2030. Far from the situation improving, millions are trapped in the worst hunger crisis in living memory. The World Food Programme says 50 million people in 45 countries are teetering on the edge of famine. In a recent interview, FAO's chief economist said wheat and fertiliser supply shortages had driven up prices and increased food import bills for the most vulnerable countries by more than USD 25 billion, putting 1.7 billion people at risk of going hungry.

Critics allege that the long-term cost of depending on new varieties of 'miracle seed' has reduced soil fertility and genetic diversity, and increased vulnerability to pests. Not only do these 'high-yielding' seeds demand expensive fertilisers, they also need more water. Both are in short supply, and the revolution in plant breeding led to rural impoverishment, increased debt, social inequality and the displacement of a large number of peasant farmers.

The food-assistance branch of the United Nations, the World Food Programme (WFP), warns that 2023 might be even worse than the crippling events of 2022, underscored by food prices remaining stubbornly high. Currently, it is food prices that are the challenge, not food.

Russian fertiliser exports have been hit by sanctions, and Ukraine production and shipments have obviously been affected by the conflict. Prices have also been driven higher by the surge in natural gas cost, the raw material used to make fertilisers. Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in a May 2022 article, said:

⁕ More than 40 per cent of the world's caloric intake came from just three crops – wheat, corn and rice. Production of these grains was concentrated in just a few regions, with just a few players dominating each step of the value chain. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 30 per cent of global wheat exports and provided 12 per cent of the world's calories.

⁕ Some 1.7bn people – most of them in developing economies – could suffer greatly from heightened levels of food insecurity, high energy prices and debt burdens, according to the UN Task Team for the Global Crisis Response Group.

⁕ Most residents of countries where food made up less than 10 per cent of consumer spending, such as the US, Australia and the UK, would be modestly impacted by rising food prices.

⁕ The impact would be far more severe in many countries around the world where food comprised over 40 per cent of consumer spending. This included Pakistan, Guatemala, Kenya and Nigeria – and the most vulnerable populations in every country.

⁕ The looming global food crisis was not about the world's ability to produce enough food but was instead about storage and distribution.

Conclusion

GHI cannot be ignored just by raising methodological issues. The situation is serious and may deteriorate further. The main problem with India's poverty estimates, as the World Bank has rightly pointed out, is the non-availability of authentic official data. The last survey on consumer expenditure was conducted in the 68th round (July 2011 to June 2012). The NSS Consumer Expenditure Survey generates estimates of household Monthly Per Capita Consumer Expenditure (MPCE) and the distribution of households and persons over the MPCE classes.

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, carried out an all-India survey on household consumption expenditure in the 75th round during the period between July 2017 and June 2018. After seeing the media reports, stating that consumer spending was falling, the report has been withheld due to its 'adverse' findings. In a press release, dated November 15, 2019, the Government of India stated: "In view of the data quality issues, the Ministry has decided not to release the Consumer Expenditure Survey results of 2017-2018. The Ministry is separately examining the feasibility of conducting the next Consumer Expenditure Survey in 2020-2021 and 2021-22 after incorporating all data quality refinements in the survey process."

Nevertheless, the labour participation data indicates that the number of starving citizens in India could be much higher than what has been reported so far. It is estimated that only 40 per cent of Indians of legal working age were employed or were looking for jobs in 2021-22. In comparison, the labour force participation rate was above 46 per cent in 2016-17. In absolute terms, India's labour force has shrunk from about 445 million to 435 million in six years. Currently, about 1,085 million Indians aged 15 or above, can be legally employed. With no jobs, the purchasing power of millions of Indians has declined drastically in recent years. In the absence of a domestic food market, the government exported huge quantities of food grain in 2021.

With the rising food inflation, shrinking job market and tumbling Indian currency, the food crisis may intensify further and trigger social and political unrest in India. The situation is deteriorating very fast.

Views expressed are personal