Floods, Fury & Faultlines

Heavy monsoon rain swept across the Himalayas, spreading havoc in India and Pakistan and killing hundreds of people over the past month, forcing authorities to open major dams, in turn triggering floods on rivers in neighbouring Pakistan, which devastated Pakistan’s breadbasket — the province of Punjab. Pakistan alleged that India had ‘weaponised water’ by releasing huge quantities from dams upstream without prior warning. Massive, sudden downpours of rain known as cloudbursts have struck India and Pakistan during this monsoon season, killing hundreds of people in the flash floods and landslides they triggered. This year, the monsoon, which originates in the Bay of Bengal and then sweeps westwards across northern India to Pakistan every summer, has brought deadly cloudbursts. Weather studies say cloudbursts typically occur in South Asia when warm, monsoon winds laden with moisture meet the cold mountain air in the north of India and Pakistan, causing condensation. With a warming planet, the monsoon has hotter air, which can carry more moisture. India’s weather department data shows cloudbursts are most common in the Himalayan regions of Indian Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The cloudbursts are more common in the Himalayan and Western Ghats regions, where orographic lift is available.

In Pakistan, rising moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean runs into the mountainous terrain of the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, causing sudden downpours. Till August 21, more than 430 people had been killed after intense deluges swallowed entire villages in mountainous India and Pakistan as climate change intensifies what are called “rain bombs,” or cloudbursts. A majority of the victims were in Pakistan, where more than 370 people were killed in the northwest province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during August 15–21. At least 228 deaths were in a single district, Buner, with dozens more missing. In neighbouring India, at least 60 people were dead and over 200 were missing till the 3rd week of August after water surged through the village of Chashoti in Kashmir.

A new study reveals that cloudbursts are increasing in frequency across Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh based on analysis from 1970 to 2024. Uttarakhand emerged as the most affected area, with Himachal Pradesh experiencing frequent events and Jammu and Kashmir showing rising trends. According to scientists, both the frequency and the time of occurrence have altered over the last few years due to human-induced climate change.

Cloud Bursts – a new menace

‘Cloud Bursts’ are no longer limited to high altitude areas only. On August 30, IMD recorded five cloudbursts (rainfall above 100 mm/hour over a small area of 20–30 square km) in Chennai — a coastal city. The area in Chennai where the cloudburst rainfall occurred is at an elevation of only a few meters above mean sea level and very close to the coast. There are no hills or mountains anywhere nearby. This makes the rainfall event the rarest of rare.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported an excess of 341% rainfall during August 22–28 in the Indian state of Punjab. The districts of Barnala (887% excess rain), Tarn Taran (628% excess) and Gurdaspur (627% excess) were devastated. This amount of additional rainfall, combined with all the water coming from Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, played havoc in north India. A Kisan Mazdoor Sangarsh Committee (KMSC) leader claimed on Sunday (August 31) evening that his union had forced officials at the Harike Headwork in Tarn Taran to open the gates of the Rajasthan feeder canal to protect fields in Punjab from flooding. On September 4, Punjab had been put on high alert as the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) was to increase the outflows from the Bhakra Dam by 10,000 cusecs on Thursday afternoon. Due to continued increased inflows and the dam’s storage capacity reaching its optimum level, the BBMB authorities informed the administration that they would release 85,000 cusecs of water from the dam.

On September 1, the Himachal Pradesh government declared the entire rain-battered state as “disaster-affected” following widespread devastation caused by incessant monsoon rains, landslides and cloudbursts since June 20. The CM said, “The monsoon reactivated on August 21, triggering a fresh wave of extreme rainfall, landslides, and cloudbursts, affecting Chamba, Kullu, Lahaul-Spiti, Mandi, Shimla, Kangra, and Hamirpur districts the most.” The chief minister, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, informed the Himachal assembly on Monday that the widespread devastation faced by the state has sustained ₹3,560 crore losses so far. The much-awaited Manimahesh Yatra, dedicated to Lord Shiva, in Himachal Pradesh’s Chamba district began on Krishna Janmashtami (August 16) but had to be suspended midway on August 25 in the face of devastation wreaked by a series of cloudburst-triggered flash floods and incessant heavy rain. According to an official estimate, 60,000 to 70,000 pilgrims visit Manimahesh Lake during the official yatra in 15 days every year. Himachal Pradesh has witnessed, during the ongoing monsoon season, 91 flash floods, 45 cloudbursts and 93 major landslides, the State Emergency Operation Centre (SEOC) data showed. Between June 20 and August 30, at least 320 people have died in rain-related incidents in Himachal Pradesh, while 40 have gone missing, according to the SEOC.

In Uttarakhand, the situation is equally frightening. Nearly half of Dharali village was submerged on August 5 in a mudslide caused by heavy rains and flash floods. An army camp nearby also suffered extensive damage. On September 1, the Uttarakhand government suspended the revered Char Dham and Hemkund Sahib pilgrimages until September 5, citing relentless and devastating monsoon rains wreaking havoc across the state. A total of 4,627,242 pilgrims visited Char Dham and Hemkund Sahib in 2022, 5,618,497 in 2023, and 4,804,215 this year to date, underscoring both the immense devotional significance and the ecological impact of these journeys.

Ecologists argue that the disaster in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand serves as a reminder of the permanent risk of destabilisation in the Himalayas. At least four were killed and at least 60 are feared washed away after a mass of water, debris and muck triggered by torrential rain hit the Kheer Ganga river. The flood hit hotels and residential buildings in Dharali town, situated 8,600 feet above sea level, where video footage recorded by residents showed giant waves of water gushing through the area, engulfing people and homes. Several Indian Army personnel are also feared dead.

The immediate cause of the Uttarakhand disaster was the extremely heavy rainfall from August 3 to 5, with some parts of the district reporting nearly 300 mm of rainfall over a single day due to the monsoon and its active phase over North India. The fury and the volume of the water that gushed through the town seemed to suggest that this was a sudden event, prompting State officials to categorise it as a ‘cloudburst’. The lack of weather radars at those altitudes made the IMD incapable of such a computation. It could very well be that continuous heavy rain over the past 48 hours may have loosened the soil and, combined with the rocky, undulating terrain, unleashed large volumes of silt along with abundant amounts of water. Whether it was a sudden event or the result of a gradual build-up might seem only of academic interest. The knee-jerk categorisation as a ‘cloudburst’ allows state authorities to claim helplessness.

Ecologists and climate activists observe that global warming alone is not the cause of cloudbursts and flash floods. Insatiable human greed, unchecked devotional tourism, large-scale logging and destruction of biodiversity of the Himalayan region are also equally responsible. The Supreme Court on September 4 took serious note of videos showing a huge number of timber logs washed down by floodwaters in Himachal Pradesh, and said it “prima facie” appears to be a case of “illegal felling of the trees going on up the hills”.

The all-weather road project, under the guise of “religious growth” and the influx of millions from the plains, is erasing indigenous knowledge while deepening vulnerability. For centuries, mountain life was built on adaptation. Communities practised “verticality” and moved families and flocks across altitudes to exploit every ecological niche. The 2011 Census recorded 1,048 “ghost villages” in Kumaon and Garhwal, their terraced fields overgrown, their sowing festivals missing. Traditional houses of wood, mud and stone — scattered across ridges but never built on floodplains — embodied resilience. They stayed cool in the summer, warm in the winter. In contrast, the booming infrastructure along the Char Dham Yatra route represents an epistemic shift. Traditional wisdom is dismissed as “backwards” while concrete hotels and homes rise on riverbeds in the name of modernity and religious growth. Sonprayag, flooded in 2013, has since been swallowed up even more.

Global South suffers most

The climate activists of the Global South argue that though the climate crisis is a global issue, it has a more destructive and noticeable effect on communities living in the Global South, which have been marginalised and have fewer resources to adapt or respond to natural catastrophes. The industrialisation of the Global North over the past two centuries has generated most of the human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. In fact, it is estimated that the Global North is responsible for 92 per cent of GHG emissions. The largest global polluter — the USA — has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, a key global climate agreement. The withdrawal process was initiated in January 2025 and is set to be complete in January 2026.

According to the Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2025, climate change manifests in the increased intensity and severity of extreme weather events. Between 1993 and 2022, more than 9,400 such events Former President, Shri Pranab Mukherjee presenting the Padma Shri Award to Prof. Jagmohan Singh Rajput, at a Civil Investiture Ceremony, at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on April 08, 2015 Former President, Shri Pranab Mukherjee presenting the Padma Shri Award to Prof. Jagmohan Singh Rajput, at a Civil Investiture Ceremony, at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on April 08, 2015 worldwide directly caused the death of over 7,65,000 people, economic losses of an estimated USD 4.2 trillion (inflation-adjusted) and affected nearly 5 billion people. Among the ten most affected countries, seven — namely Dominica (ranked 1), China (ranked 2), Honduras (3), Myanmar (4), India (6), Vanuatu (9) and the Philippines (10) — were from the Global South. Three Northern countries badly affected were Italy (5), Greece (7) and Spain (8) (Refer to the Table).

Asia remained the world’s most disaster-hit region from weather, climate and water-related hazards in 2023. Floods and storms caused the highest number of reported casualties and economic losses, whilst the impact of heatwaves became more severe, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The State of the Climate in Asia 2023 report highlighted that Asia was warming faster than the global average. The warming trend has nearly doubled since the 1961–1990 period. In 2023, a total of 79 disasters associated with hydro-meteorological hazard events were reported in Asia. Of these, over 80% were related to flood and storm events, with more than 2,000 fatalities and nine million people directly affected. Twenty out of 22 observed glaciers in the High Mountain Asia region showed continued mass loss. During the period 2022–2023, Urumqi Glacier No. 1, in Eastern Tien Shan, recorded its second-highest negative mass balance since measurements began in 1959.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report indicated 2024 as the hottest year on record, which set out a trail of destruction from extreme weather that took lives, demolished buildings and ravaged vital crops. More than 800,000 people were displaced and made homeless, the highest yearly number since 2008. The report listed 151 unprecedented extreme weather events in 2024, worse than any ever recorded in the region.

Natural disasters continue unabated. Their impact becomes magnified in Southern countries where governance is either weak (Sudan, Myanmar, Afghanistan) or neglectful of the emerging danger (India). On August 31, 2025, a landslide destroyed an entire village in Sudan’s western Darfur region in the Marrah Mountains, killing an estimated 1,000 people, according to a rebel group that controls the area.

Cloud seeding – a controversial and risky experiment

“Controlling the weather” and using it as a weapon is an old war strategy of the post-WW2 era. In his book The Weather Weapon (1977), Seshagiri N. narrated how developed countries during the early Cold War planned to create artificial drought and heavy rain by using scientific techniques. Cloud seeding was one such weapon.

Cloud seeding has a long history, going back to 1946, when General Electric research laboratories caused snow to fall near Mount Greylock in Massachusetts. Since 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which monitors cloud seeding operations in the United States, has recorded over 50 projects. As governments and private companies weigh benefits against risks, cloud seeding remains a polarising subject. The historical dimension of this debate resonates with events like Operation Popeye during the Vietnam War, where weather modification was a military tool. The extended monsoon season and resulting floods led to an international treaty in 1977 prohibiting the military use of weather modification. Countries like Russia and Thailand are successfully using it for suppressing heatwaves and wildfires, while the USA, China, and Australia are applying its potential for maximising water utilisation during rainfall for drought mitigation. In the United Arab Emirates, the technique is used to trigger rain. Indonesia uses cloud seeding to stop heavy rains as floods hit Jakarta. Cloud seeding helps steer rainfall away from flood-hit areas or limit the formation of heavier downpours. It is reported that an experiment to induce artificial rain through cloud seeding has begun at the Ramgarh Dam in Jaipur.

Although cloud seeding is often described as “creating” rain, it can be more accurately described as moving rain from one location to another, and it may simply redistribute risk. Cloud seeding is already being coordinated at a regional scale across the Colorado River Basin. If adopted widely, it could be used politically to deprive certain regions of rainfall (for example, as a weapon of war) or to claim water that would otherwise be more widely distributed. In 2020, China announced its “Sky River Plan” to divert water vapour from the Yangtze River basin to the Yellow River basin, a cloud seeding initiative that would cover an area half the size of India. This raises large governance questions about how to ethically divide water and who controls the sky. Without clear policies, including an international policy to address