Bulwarking Bangladesh

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as the chief adviser of the new interim government of Bangladesh in Dhaka on August 8, 2024. Bangladesh’s President Mohammed Shahabuddin administered the oath. Among others, student leaders Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud have also joined the 17 member interim government led by Muhammad Yunus. The need for an interim government has arisen as Sheikh Hasina resigned as the Prime Minister on Monday (August 5) after lakhs of students had hit the streets, demanding that she should step down. Yunus was picked by President Mohammed Shahabuddin to lead an interim government to fulfil the demand of student leaders.

The 84-year-old economist, who was awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for pioneering microcredit and microfinance projects implemented through the Grameen Bank, was sworn in hours after he returned to Dhaka from Paris, where he had been undergoing medical treatment. “I will uphold, support and protect the constitution and will perform my duties sincerely,” Yunus said at the swearing-in event. Earlier, Yunus asked the youth to be calm and get ready to build the country. “I congratulate the brave students who took the lead in making our ‘Second Victory Day’ possible and to the people for giving your total support to them. Let us make the best use of our new victory. Let us not let this slip away because of our mistakes,” he said in a statement. The Indian Prime Minister, while extending his best wishes to Yunus, has expressed hope for a swift return to normalcy in Bangladesh, and called for the ‘safety and protection of Hindus and other minority communities’.

On Tuesday, President Mohammed Shahabuddin announced that Parliament had been dissolved. The announcement came after a scheduled meeting between the protest organisers and the army chief. The primary task of the interim government is to hold elections within 90 days from the dissolving of the country’s Parliament. Bangladeshi President has ordered the release of former Bangladesh Prime Minister and key opposition leader Khaleda Zia from jail a day after Hasina fled the country. Mrs Zia was sentenced to 17 years in prison on corruption charges in 2018. It was decided to free all those arrested during the student protests. It is reported that the head of interim government in Bangladesh has also been acquitted in a labour law violation case; a Dhaka tribunal delivered the verdict, acquitting Yunus and three top officials of Grameen Telecom. In January this year, a court sentenced Prof Yunus, then chairman of Grameen Telecom, and its three directors to six months imprisonment each for violating labour laws. The four were also fined Tk 30,000 each, in default of which they would have to serve 25 more days in prison.

Analysts believe that a new chapter has begun after 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s rule as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. Hasina resigned on Monday and fled to India, bringing an abrupt end to her reign. She had been the Prime Minister of Bangladesh for over two decades—first during June 23, 1996 to July 15, 2001 and then during January 6, 2009 to August 5, 2024. A peaceful student demonstration against reservation quickly evolved into a nationwide movement (Students Against Discrimination movement), exposing the deep-seated discontent with Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian rule and the unchecked corruption, nepotism, and high-handedness that overshadowed whatever economic and development successes she flaunted, both at home and abroad. Parliamentary elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were marred by low turnout, violence, and boycotts by opposition parties. On Wednesday, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), held a rally at Naya Paltan in Dhaka, where thousands of people gathered from different parts of the country.

Anarchic violence raged across Bangladesh since Monday, leading to revenge killings of Awami League leaders and police, as well as attacks on minorities and the torching of hotels and clubs, as many supporters of the old regime went into hiding or attempted to flee the country. Amid the bloodbath, the estimated death toll during the first three days of Hasina’s ouster was put at 1,000, reports the Telegraph.

Call for an anti-discriminatory, democratic Bangladesh

Though the recent protest has been led by the students, teachers also played a significant role along with their students. On the eve of Sheikh Hasina’s decision to resign and flee the country, the Bangladeshi University Teachers’ Network (UTN) – whose members have been active in the mass protests, alongside the students – held a press conference where they released a proposal for transforming Bangladesh into “an anti-discriminatory, democratic” nation, including the formation of an interim government and constitutional assembly with a mandate to eradicate from the country’s current constitution “all autocratic, communal, anti-people and discriminatory clauses.”

It may be recalled that Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (popularly known as Bangabandhu)—the founding father of Bangladesh—made two major amendments (2nd and 4th) in the Constitution of Bangladesh which came into force in 1972. He was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh during April 17, 1971-January 24, 1975. Between January 25, 1975 and August 15, 1975, he served as the 1st President of Bangladesh. Sheikh Mujibur was assassinated on August 15, 1975.

The Constitution of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh has been amended 17 times to date. Here are few major ones:

- The second amendment: The actual Constitution did not have any prerequisite for declaration of state of emergency and defensive detention. By the Constitution Act of 1973, Article 33 was amended to incorporate defensive detention and Part IXA was inserted conferring authority on Parliament and the administration to deal with state of emergency and provide for postponement of enforcement of the fundamental privileges during episodes of emergency.

- The fourth amendment: The Constitution Act of 1975 introduced major changes into the Constitution. The presidential system of the government was introduced in place of the parliamentary system; a one-party system instead of a multi-party system was the main important part; the authority of the Parliament was shortened; the Judiciary lost much of its liberty; the Supreme Court was underprivileged of its command over the protection and enforcement of basic rights. Armed with this amendment, Bangabandhu became the first President of Bangladesh.

- Fifth Amendment: The Constitution Act was accepted by the Jatiya Sangsad on April 6, 1979. The phrase ‘Bismillah ar-Rahman ar-Rahim’ was added before the preface of the Constitution. The Fifth Amendment of the constitution was declared illegal by the High Court of Bangladesh in 2005. The government restored a constitution “in the spirit of the constitution of 1972 which also included secularism as one of the state principles. Nevertheless, the opening words ‘bismillah-ar-rahman-ar rahim’ (In the name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful) remained in the constitution.

- Eighth Amendment: The Constitution Act 1988 made ‘Islam’ the state religion of Bangladesh. General HM Ershad was the President.

- Twelfth Amendment: The Constitution Act 1991 re-established the parliamentary system of government; the President became the legitimate chief of the State; the Prime Minister became the executive chief; the cabinet led by the Prime Minister became liable to the Jatiya Sangsad; the post of the Vice-President was brought to an end; and the President was compulsory to be voted by the members of the Jatiya Sangsad.

- The Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution of Bangladesh was passed on June 30, 2011 when Hasina came to power. This amendment made some significant changes to the constitution, namely: (i) Incorporated four original fundamental state policies of the 1972 constitution—nationalism, socialism, democracy and secularism, (ii) Abolished referendum system from the constitution, and (iii) Acknowledged Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as the Father of the Nation.

After the Eighth Amendment of the constitution on June 7, 1988, 15 personalities had filed a public interest litigation challenging the provision of state religion. On August 1, 2015, a Supreme Court lawyer filed another petition with the High Court, challenging the legality of the constitutional provision of Islam as the state religion despite revival of “secularism” as a fundamental state policy under a 2011 amendment to the Constitution. On March 28, 2016, the High Court rejected the petition and retained Islam as the state religion. Hasina has been unsuccessful in amending this despite her huge majority in the Parliament.

It is apparent that the people of Bangladesh failed to enjoy the spirit of parliamentary democracy during the reign of Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman and his daughter Sheikh Hasina—both of whom were very close to India. This could be one of the reasons why, of late, a section of Bangladeshi citizens have developed anti-Indian feelings and called for the boycott of Indian goods. At the start of 2024, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh National Party (BNP), the main Opposition party, ran an anti-India campaign, which received massive public support that eventually succeeded in forcing Hasina to step down.

Conspiracy theories for Hasina’s downfall

At least four conspiracy theories are being debated for the downfall of Hasina government in Bangladesh. However, it cannot be denied that Bangladesh has a glorious history of sacrifice for attaining independence. Nearly three million people were killed during their struggle for independence from the Pakistani rulers.

Theory 1: India Today’s Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team found thousands of posts on X (formerly Twitter), falsely accusing the Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) of committing violence in Bangladesh. Many of the accounts participating in the drive were also part of an earlier social media campaign containing hashtags like #BoycottIndia.

Theory 2: China engineered the ouster. Mathrubhumi reported that the Indian intelligence agencies suspect the hand of Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, ISI, and its Chinese counterpart in recent developments. It is alleged that Bangladesh has failed to maintain the balance between China and India, though one of the cabinet ministers commented before the China visit, which began on July 8,, “India is a time-tested political friend of Bangladesh, and China is a friend necessary for Bangladesh to attain its developmental goals”. During her China visit, there were basically two issues: one, Teesta river water management project, and two, Chinese financial assistance for Bangladesh to overcome its economic crisis and foreign currency crunch. Bangladesh decided to award the Teesta project to India. Moreover, it is observed that it didn’t have anything to offer to China on Hasina’s trip, which could be tangible enough for China to reciprocate by meeting Bangladesh’s needs. Quite to the contrary, China noted that only recently, Bangladesh provided India with a railway corridor, getting nothing visible in return. And in future if India and China get involved in any heated confrontation, this corridor may prove to be an alternative to India’s Chicken’s Neck or Siliguri corridor. This has made China upset and it decided to oust her.

It may be mentioned that India is set to develop an alternative network of railway tracks through Bangladesh to connect the Northeast with the rest of the country, reducing reliance on the existing route through the Siliguri Corridor, commonly known as “Chicken’s Neck”—a 22-km-wide strip hemmed in by Nepal to the north and Bangladesh on its south. The project will feature 14 new routes connecting Bangladesh, spanning 861 km, and alternative routes to the Northeast, bringing the total length of sanctioned tracks to 1,275.5 km. The initiative will involve gauge conversion of existing tracks and construction of new ones in Bangladesh.

Theory 3: Press report suggests that Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson had claimed that US ambassador to Bangladesh and a high-ranking representative of the local opposition discussed plans to organise mass anti-government protests in the country during the meeting.

Hasina also alleged that she was fighting a battle everywhere, both at home and abroad, and the “conspiracies are still on” to carve a new country out of Bangladesh. “Like East Timor...they will carve out a Christian country, taking parts of Bangladesh (Chattogram) and Myanmar with a base in the Bay of Bengal,” Hasina said without giving details. She said conspiracies were being hatched to topple her government and that she might have to face the same consequences as her father. A section of Indian media is also propagating this theory, maybe to divert attention from the intelligence failure of Hasina’s most reliable political ally.

Theory 4: Sajeeb Wazed Joy, son of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, said that they suspect the role of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, in the toppling of the government and the unrest. He said that the attacks and protests were quite coordinated, and the weapons in use could only have been provided by terror outfits. While dismissing the involvement of Chinese agents, Joy said there is also no evidence regarding the involvement of US intelligence agency CIA. However, they can’t be ruled out either.

The fourth theory sounds logical, as Pakistan would like to divert the conflicts from its own border to the Bangladesh border. This author also wrote in 2019 that the Indian ruling establishment would prefer, for various reasons, to shift the present war zone from the North West to the East and North-east border of India. This might lead to the emergence of another Kashmir like condition in the Indo-Bangladesh border. Bangladesh, at this stage, is a softer target compared to Pakistan, and a communal conflict in Bangladesh will pay huge political dividends to the Indian Hindu nationalist parties like BJP.

Observations

India Bangladesh relations became bitter, especially since 2018, when Bangladesh had surpassed India in many development parameters. Bangladesh’s per capita GDP was higher than India during 2020 -2022. During the last five years, the Indian policymakers and leaders of the ruling political parties have made a few insensitive decisions that have hurt the common citizens of Bangladesh. Though India remained very cordial to their Prime Minister, apparently it took the citizens of Bangladesh for granted. Few examples:

- In April 2018, The Indian Council of Cultural Relations (ICCR), under the Ministry of External Affairs, committed itself to fund an Urdu Chair named after Rabindranath Tagore at the University of Dhaka. It was to be called ‘ICCR Robindro Chair for Urdu’. They forgot that on February 21, 1952, Dhaka witnessed a huge demonstration against the imposition of Urdu. Seven persons died in police firing, earning them the nickname ‘Bhasha Shaheed’ (language martyr). The blood of these martyrs became the seed of an independent nation. Bangladesh manifested on the world map two decades later in 1971.

- The National Register of Citizenship (NRC) and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are primarily aimed at Bangladeshi refugees and migrants. The President of BJP repeatedly termed them ‘termites’ in 2018-19 election rallies.

- By limiting citizenship only to migrants from an arbitrary group of neighbouring nations and to narrow the definition only to “religious persecution”, and to further constrict this to not include Muslims, atheists, and agnostics among others, would suggest that the reasoning to provide citizenship has less to do with humanitarianism and more to do with a warped and perverse understanding of Indian citizenship. In a significant development, when the Bangladesh crisis was at its peak, the Lieutenant Governor administration in Jammu and Kashmir on July 31 announced ownership rights of land to West Pakistan Refugees (WPRs), who have been living in J&K after their migration from Pakistan since 1947. The land ownership rights were also granted to 1965 PoJK refugees.

Political and economic stability in Bangladesh is crucial for West Bengal and North Eastern states of Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya which share thousands of kilometres of international border with Bangladesh. These states of India will be the worst hit if Bangladesh disintegrates on religious lines.

Views expressed are personalAs Bangladesh strives to rebuild itself as a democratic nation after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s despotic regime, India, as a responsible neighbour, should align its priorities with the interests of battered Bangladeshi population, which will help nullify ‘anti-India’ sentiments in the country and secure the interests and stability of North-eastern states