Asia's New Uncertainty

An impromptu remark by Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi triggered Japan’s biggest fight in years with China. Japan’s first female prime minister, suggested in her parliamentary address on November 7, since taking office on October 21, that Japan could become militarily involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan. Though Japan’s post-war constitution forbids it from using force as a means of settling international disputes, a 2015 law – passed when Takaichi’s mentor, Shinzo Abe, was the prime minister – permits it to exercise ‘collective self-defence’ in certain situations, even if it is not directly under attack. Until now, Japanese leaders have avoided mentioning Taiwan when publicly discussing such scenarios, maintaining a strategic ambiguity, also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally- the United States, observes Reuters.

According to Nikkei Asia, Takaichi’s Taiwan remark highlights issue of Japan’s collective defence. ‘No country would tolerate crude interference by foreign leaders in its internal affairs, nor would any accept threats by foreign leaders to use force against it,’ commented China’s ‘Zhong Sheng’- a pen name often used by People’s Daily to express its views on foreign policy and international affairs.

Both countries’ foreign ministries have since lodged serious protests with each other. Japan has warned its citizens to stay safe in China, while China urged its citizens to avoid travelling to Japan. Some Chinese airlines have even offered refunds for flights to Japan. The release of two popular Japanese films in China have also been postponed. A meeting of culture ministers from Japan, China, and South Korea, scheduled for Monday (November 24) in Macau, has been postponed by China. As China has suspended Japanese seafood imports, Indian seafood exports, which was hit by steep US tariffs, to China have been rising, reports India Today.

China-Japan wrangle over Taiwan

Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), has a complicated history. The Dutch East India Company founded a small colony on Taiwan’s southwest coast in 1624, at Tainan. Some years later, they established another base in the north, at Tamsui. The Dutch traded in sugar, rice, pepper, silk and satin, porcelain, pepper, nutmeg, and cinnamon. In 1661, Koxinga - an ardent supporter of China’s Ming Dynasty escaped the mainland after the fall of the Ming emperor and invaded the island by defeating the Dutch. The state he created in Taiwan, the Kingdom of Dongning, lasted for 21 years. When Qing forces attacked Taiwan in 1683, Koxinga’s teenage grandson surrendered the island to the Chinese empire. By 1885, Taiwan was upgraded to a province of China.

The island was under Japanese colonial rule from 1895 to 1945. China’s defeat in the 1894 war to Japan, after the first Sino-Japanese war (1894-95), led to the Qing empire ceding Taiwan and the Penghu islands to Japan. History reveals that over five decades of Japanese colonial rule, Taiwan residents endured profound suffering. The colonial government imposed forced assimilation through unfair education and cultural suppression, exploited people across all social classes via ruthless economic policies, and violently quashed countless forms of resistance. In the 1930 Wushe Rebellion (also known as the Musha Incident) rebels killed over 100 Japanese before being suppressed by military force with poison gas. During the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese aggression, many Taiwan compatriots joined the War of Resistance in the Chinese mainland. Within Taiwan, people maintained resistance through cultural preservation, rejecting Japanese names, and sustaining Chinese language and traditions.

During the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) that preceded World War II, the Japanese Imperial Army, after its seizure of Nanjing- the capital of the Nationalist Chinese government from 1928 to 1937, killed more than 2,00,000 unarmed civilians during its occupation, and raped and tortured tens of thousands of women and girls, in what is known as the Nanjing Massacre, one of the most notorious wartime atrocities of the 20th century. By July 1937, practically all Chinese regional military and political groups had rallied to support the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek in their decision to oppose Japan by every means. The communists, who had urged a united front against Japan since 1935, pledged their support and put their armies nominally under command of the government.

In the last phase of the war, from early 1944 to August 1945, some help was beginning to come to China from the outside, chiefly from the United States. By then, the Nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek had been seriously undermined by seven years of war and inflation, while the strength of the communists, under Mao Zedong, had grown. The U.S. government was drawn into China’s domestic crisis because the United States had provided the main external supports—financial, military, and diplomatic—for the Nationalist government. Japan announced its surrender on August 15, and surrendered to the Allied force on September 2, 1945 which marked the end of WWII. On 25 October 1945, Japan handed over Taiwan and Penghu to the Nationalist-run Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shek. This marked the end of Japanese rule and the beginning of the postwar era of Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China in 1949 after emerging victorious from a civil war, while the defeated Nationalists retreated to Taiwan. However, due to the Chinese Civil War (1945-1949) and the interference of external forces, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have been in a state of prolonged political confrontation since 1949. In 1971, the United Nations voted to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with its capital Beijing, instead of the Republic of China (ROC), as the sole representative of China.

Taiwan at the crossroads

On Friday, October 24, 2025, the “Chinese National Legislature” voted to designate October 25 as a ‘Commemoration Day of Taiwan’s Restoration’. Designating this day to commemorate Taiwan’s restoration has several important connotations. This commemoration day reinforces the historical and legal facts that Taiwan has always been an inseparable part of China’s sacred territory since ancient times.

The decision by China’s National Legislative Assembly to designate October 25 as the anniversary of Taiwan’s restoration coincides with the victory of former parliamentarian and Taiwanese Kuomintang (KMT) official Cheng Li-wen in the Taiwanese elections. This represents a significant opportunity to unify Chinese ranks, given the KMT’s longstanding support for strengthening relations with China and its preferred dialogue partner with Beijing. China also categorically refuses to speak with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration, which Beijing describes as a “separatist” for its support of Washington and the West’s agenda of dividing China and achieving Taiwan’s independence from the mainland’s stronghold in Beijing, observed the Modern Diplomacy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. approved the sale of fighter jet and other aircraft parts to Taiwan for USD 330 million on November 14, marking the first such transaction since President Donald Trump took office in January. Reacting to this, Beijing warned Trump that the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan “gravely infringes” on China’s sovereignty and interests and that it would take “all necessary measures” in response. Prior to this, Washington deliberately remained vague on how it would respond to a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan by China, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.” Analysts fear that Japanese PM’s remark on Taiwan may once again trigger Japanese military ambitions in the Asia Pacific region though China never invaded Japan while Japan launched a brutal invasion of China. Earlier, Japan’s turn toward imperialism—heavily influenced by European powers—led to war, while China remained focused on internal stability. After a crushing defeat in WW2, Japan followed a strategy of peaceful co-existence which the new Prime Minister does not approve of.

Make Japan Great Again

Japan’s first woman prime minister Sanae Takaichi on October 24 took the Parliament rostrum to deliver her first policy address in a male-dominated political landscape. She delivered her address from a position of strength with high Cabinet approval ratings. Takaichi prioritised economic growth, aiming to boost incomes and support strategic sectors, and pledged to meet the 2 per cent GDP defence spending target by March 2026. In her speech, Takaichi, an ardent follower of Britain’s Margaret Thatcher- dubbed as the Iron Lady’, laid out Japan’s national vision to return to ‘top of global stage’, reports the Straits Times. She wants to develop a strong Japanese military to Make Japan Great Again (MJGA).

Japan’s demilitarisation during post-WW II to its present-day military transformation, the evolution has always been dictated by the US’ interests. Only under Shinzo Abe’s leadership, Japan tried to emerge from the American shadow. Since last decade, Japan’s foreign policy has been organised around a strategic purpose: promote and defend the international rules-based order. Former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his successors, Suga Yoshihide and Kishida Fumio, emphasised this Japanese interest even as the post-war order was under increasing challenge. Japan’s foreign policy challenges have only grown since Abe left office. Like Suga and Kishida, Takaichi will face a complex world, one in which she will face greater pressures on Japan’s defences.

At present Japan is an important economic partner of the USA and the alliance between Japan and USA is no more dependent on strategic compulsion alone. Japan is the largest non-US holder of US Treasuries, with USD 1.189 trillion in September 2025, its highest level since August 2022. Japan also leads with the highest FDI position in the US, totalling USD 754.07 billion in 2024.

It will be difficult for Takaichi to reclaim the military might of 19th century Japan. China continues to demonstrate its military power. Moscow’s new security agreement with Pyongyang demonstrates the complex strategic dynamics that Tokyo must navigate. Russia has declared Japan an unfriendly nation and has placed reciprocal sanctions on groups and individuals it deems especially problematic.

India in the Indo-Pacific

It is generally believed that the first official use of the broad notion of a geopolitical confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans was made by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In August 2007, Abe called for a “broader Asia” spanning the Pacific and Indian Oceans—“seas of freedom and prosperity, which will be open and transparent to all”—in a speech to the Indian Parliament. Although Abe did not explicitly mention the concept of the Indo-Pacific, he provided the initial inspiration for the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, writes Monthly Review.

In their first telephonic conversation since Takaichi became Japan’s prime minister, she assured her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi that Japan and India share “fundamental values and strategic interests” and would continue working together to realise a “‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, including through Japan-Australia-India-US (Quad)”.

The political equations have changed since US president Donald Trump’s decision to skip the APEC summit (in South Korea) after a brief meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 31. This gave China an opportunity to shape Asia’s economic agenda and global trade leadership. India’s hopes of hosting the fifth Quad Leaders’ Summit this year become uncertain with US President Donald Trump deciding not to travel to New Delhi amid the downward spiral in bilateral ties. With a defunct QUAD, India has no other significant geostrategic role to play in the Indo-Pacific region.