A War Built on Suspicion

In the charged geopolitics of West Asia, wars rarely begin without echoes from the past—and this one is no exception. Israel’s strike on Iran marks not only a military escalation but a dangerous revival of the doctrine of anticipatory self-defence, one that history has seen unravel with grave consequences. From the unverified weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to the covert sabotage campaigns against Iran’s nuclear scientists, the present moment is woven from threads of distrust, failed diplomacy, and shadow wars. What makes this war different is its timing: a moment when global power is splintering into a multipolar order, and traditional alliances are fraying. The United States stands hesitant, divided between hardline support for Israel and growing dissent within its own intelligence ranks. Meanwhile, Russia and China are no longer passive observers—they are vocal, aligned, and invested in reshaping the narrative of global security. In this climate, Israel’s operation is more than a tactical strike—it is a gambit with cascading consequences. As missiles fly and doctrines are bent, the world must confront an unsettling truth: this war is not just about Iran’s nuclear ambitions or Israel’s security—it’s about the future architecture of international legitimacy, and who gets to define it.

On Friday, June 13, Israel declared war against Iran by launching “Operation Rising Lion” in response to an intelligence report, it claimed, that showed Iran was “approaching the point of no return” in the development of a nuclear weapon. Calling the series of missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military commanders “a decisive moment in Israel’s history”, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the operation would continue for as long as necessary. Iran has labelled the attacks as ‘a declaration of war’, and has responded with its missile salvoes. As of Thursday (June 18) morning, a Washington-based human rights group estimated that at least 639 Iranians have been killed by Israeli strikes, while at least 24 have been killed in Israel, reports The Independent.

Israel’s military said about 200 aircraft were involved in the initial attack on about 100 targets. It’s Mossad spy agency positioned explosive drones and precision weapons inside Iran ahead of time and used them to target Iranian air defences and missile launchers near Tehran. US President Donald Trump claimed that the USA was not involved in the latest conflict between Israel and Iran.

Israel argues that it has carried out attacks on Iran’s military and nuclear sites over the past week in anticipation of an Iranian nuclear attack. However, the United Nations Charter, the founding document for states’ rights since World War II, outlaws aggressive war, allowing military action only as self-defence. The question of the legality of Israel’s strikes on Iran, therefore, revolves around whether Israel – and any allies coming to its aid – can justify its attacks on Iran as “anticipatory” self-defence.

Significantly, after a week of intense fighting when Israel has met with substantial loss and repeatedly appealed to the USA to join the war, President Donald Trump is considering joining Israel in what it claims are its efforts to ‘destroy Iran’s nuclear programme’, based on its stated belief that Iran is “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. Ironically, on June 17, the US President dismissed the assessment of his National Intelligence Director- Tulsi Gabbard, who while testifying to Congress about Iran’s nuclear program in March this year, claimed that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and its supreme leader had not reauthorized the dormant program it suspended in 2003 even though it had enriched uranium to higher levels. “I don’t care what she said,” Trump told reporters. In his view, Iran was “very close” to having a nuclear bomb.

Strikingly similar false allegations against Iraq and Iran

It may be recalled that Iraq actively researched weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and used chemical weapons from 1962 to 1991, after which it destroyed its chemical weapons stockpile and halted its biological and nuclear weapon programs as required by the United Nations Security Council. In the early 2000s, U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair both falsely asserted that Saddam’s weapons programs were still active and that large stockpiles of WMD were hidden in Iraq. Inspections by the UN to resolve the status of unresolved disarmament questions restarted between November 2002 and March 2003, under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441, which demanded Hussein provide “immediate, unconditional and active cooperation” to UN and IAEA inspections. The United States asserted that Hussein’s lack of cooperation was a breach of Resolution 1441, but failed to convince the United Nations Security Council to pass a new resolution authorising the use of force.

Despite this, Bush asserted that peaceful measures could not disarm Iraq and launched the Iraq War. A year later, the U.S. Senate released its Report of Pre-war Intelligence on Iraq, which concluded that many of the pre-war statements about Iraqi WMD were not supported by the underlying intelligence. The claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD), particularly chemical weapons, was a key justification for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but this claim proved to be false. Subsequent investigations revealed that the intelligence used to support this assertion was flawed and, in some cases, deliberately misleading.

Suggestively, in a recent statement, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz cautioned that Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, might meet a fate like Saddam Hussein’s. Saddam Hussein was convicted of crimes against humanity —including wilful killing, illegal imprisonment, deportation, and torture — and was sentenced to death by hanging. Saddam’s half-brother (an intelligence officer) and Iraq’s former chief judge were also sentenced to death. Days after an Iraqi court upheld his sentence in December 2006, Saddam was executed.

Following the 1991 Gulf War, Israel viewed Saddam as a dangerous and unpredictable threat. Determined to eliminate the threat, Israeli military and intelligence planners designed a mission to assassinate Saddam at a public event. The plan, codenamed Operation Bramble Bush, was to be carried out by Sayeret Matkal, Israel’s most elite commando unit. Mossad provided the intelligence, while the IDF’s top brass approved the operation. Fortunately for Saddam, the plan failed. Three decades later, Israel finds itself once again targeting the top-tier leaders and nuclear scientists of another country, this time not in Baghdad but in Tehran.

Anticipating Mossad’s plan, on June 18, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delegated sweeping authority to the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), allowing the powerful military body to act independently on core national security matters without seeking the supreme leader’s approval or requiring clerical endorsement. With the new delegation of power, the IRGC is now able to undertake major actions—including nuclear decisions and large-scale military operations—without the need for clerical oversight or religious edicts.

Nuclear Program of Israel and Iran

During the 1960s, Israel built the nuclear bomb in near-absolute secrecy—even deceiving the U.S. government about its activities and goals. Israel’s first leader, David Ben-Gurion, initiated Israel’s nuclear project in the mid-to-late 1950s, establishing Israel’s nuclear complex at Dimona during a period when only three countries had nuclear weapons. A decade later, on the eve of the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel secretly assembled its first nuclear devices, writes, Avner Cohen and William Burr in Foreign Policy.

1967 -Iran took possession of its Tehran Research Reactor under America’s “Atoms for Peace” program. In August 2002, Western intelligence services and an Iranian opposition group revealed Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. Subsequently, in June 2003, Britain, France, and Germany initiated nuclear negotiations with Iran. In October 2003, Iran suspended uranium enrichment.

October 2009 — Under President Barack Obama, the US and Iran opened a secret backchannel for messages in the sultanate of Oman. In.July 14, 2015 — World powers and Iran announce a long-term, comprehensive nuclear agreement that limits Tehran’s enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleged Israel obtained tens of thousands of pages of data showing Iran covered up its nuclear program before signing a deal with world powers in 2015. In 2018, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers. July 2020 — A mysterious explosion tore apart a centrifuge production plant at Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. Iran blamed the attack on Israel.

In November 2020, a top Iranian military nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun. On April 11, 2021, an attack targeted Iran’s underground nuclear facility in Natanz. Iran blamed Israel.

April 16, 2021 — Iran began enriching uranium up to 60%, its highest purity ever, and a technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. On Friday, June 13, 2025, Israel launches blistering attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure.

Compared to Israel, Iran’s nuclear program is very transparent. Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in July 1968 and ratified it in February 1970 as a non-nuclear-weapon state. It has since said its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes and research. The IAEA has conducted inspections under the treaty’s safeguards system. The NPT is a landmark international treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Israel remains the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons – despite never officially acknowledging its arsenal or being a signatory to the NPT.

Genesis of Israel-Iran conflict: A historical perspective

On May 14, 1948, in Tel Aviv, Jewish Agency Chairman David Ben-Gurion proclaimed the State of Israel, establishing the first Jewish state in 2,000 years. Ben-Gurion became Israel’s first premier. A fight broke out between Jews and Arabs immediately following the British army’s withdrawal earlier that day. Egypt launched an air assault against Israel that evening. Despite a blackout in Tel Aviv and the expected Arab invasion, Jews celebrated the birth of their new nation, especially after the news that the United States had recognised the Jewish state. At midnight, the State of Israel officially came into being upon termination of the British mandate in Palestine.

Since the creation of the Zionist Israel, the US supremacy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region began. Currently, there are about 40,000 to 50,000 US troops at around 19 locations across the Middle East. There are US personnel based in Cyprus and a US naval facility in Bahrain. To retain its regional hegemony, the US has spent an estimated $8 trillion on Middle East wars since 2001, covering Iraq, Afghanistan, and related operations. About 7,000 U.S. soldiers died, and many were wounded.

The current Israeli-Iran conflict is rooted in a century-long territorial dispute between Israel and Palestine over the ‘Holy Land’, which commonly refers to the region of Israel and Palestine, particularly the area encompassing Jerusalem and its surrounding territories, specifically the area between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. The Holy Land has great religious and historical significance to Christians, Jews, and Muslims.

Following the 1896 publication of Theodor Herzl’s ‘The Jewish State’, which promoted the idea of a haven for Jews in their ancient homeland to escape antisemitism in Europe, growing numbers of Jews began moving to Ottoman Palestine—a predominantly Arab region. The migration accelerated after the Holocaust of World War II, in which Nazi Germany killed six million Jews. In 1947, after years of Arab-Jewish violence, the UN General Assembly voted for the establishment of two states in Palestine, one Jewish and the other Arab. Shortly after, the Jewish community in Palestine declared Israel an independent state, prompting hundreds of thousands more Jews to emigrate, and precipitating a war launched by neighbouring Arab states. Since then, Israel, with active support from the USA and its Western European allies, is trying to establish the ‘Greater Israel’ state by invading neighbouring Arab lands.

According to the founding father of Zionism, Theodore Herzl, ‘Greater Israel’ is a Jewish State stretching “from the Brook of Egypt to the Euphrates”. The promised land of Israel, as described in the badge photo, includes regions from the Nile to the Euphrates, from Medina to Lebanon, including territories from Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the entire Jordan, and the Occupied Palestinian territories. The inclusion of parts of Saudi Arabia in the proposed ‘Greater Israel’ is the main reason why the Saudi Prince refused to sign the Abraham Peace Accord with Israel despite repeated requests from US President Donald Trump.

Though Iran and Turkey are not part of the proposed “Greater Israel’ (refer to the map), the Western Judeo-Christian allies of Zionist Israel consider these two Muslim states, which bear the legacy of the great Persian and Ottoman empires, as the major challengers to the Zionist expansionism in the MENA region. It may be mentioned that Israel and Iran maintained a very cordial relationship during the Pahlavi Shah’s regime (1953-79). The return of the Shah’s rule in Iran, following an alleged CIA-engineered coup in 1953, marked a turning point in Iran-Israel relations. The Pahlavi regime viewed Israel as a natural ally, particularly because of common adversaries such as Egypt, then under Gamal Abdel Nasser, and the Iraqi Republic, ruled by the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party. Under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, Iran and Israel forged a multifaceted alliance of economic, military, and intelligence cooperation between the two countries. They have turned adversaries since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when the Shah dynasty was overthrown by the people of Iran.

The current war between Israel and Iran could be a “dry run” for a future conflict between Israel and Turkey, warns Michael Rubin-a Security analyst. According to him, Turkish President Erdoğan is following a similar path as Iran’s Ayatollahs: pursuing a domestic military industry, building a nuclear program under a civilian guise, and acting as a state sponsor of terror by supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. This trajectory, combined with anti-Israel rhetoric, creates a dangerous parallel with Iran, observes Rabin.

Is Israel’s Strike Legal?

✻ Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter explicitly prohibits the use of force by one state against another.

✻ Article 51 permits the use of force only in self-defence in response to an armed attack.

✻ Israel has justified its June 13 attack as “anticipatory self-defence”, claiming Iran was nearing the nuclear threshold.

✻ Preemptive self-defence remains highly controversial in international law.

✻ Most legal scholars argue that a speculative threat, however serious, does not meet the threshold of an armed attack.

✻ ICJ rulings and precedents stress that force cannot be used preemptively without an imminent and unavoidable threat.

Under prevailing interpretations of international law, Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” likely violates the UN Charter. Without clear evidence of an imminent Iranian strike, the legal case for preemptive self-defence remains weak—raising concerns about a return to unilateral use of force seen in the 2003 Iraq War.

Global Support for Iran – Peace Initiatives

Iran has received support from countries of Asia and Afro-Eurasia in their fight against Israel and its Western allies.

After the outbreak of war, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated, Beijing was “deeply worried” about Israel’s military strikes against Iran. Later, amid the escalating tensions, China has warned the United States against the “use of force” as US President Donald Trump mulls American intervention.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned on Wednesday that direct U.S. military assistance to Israel could radically destabilise the situation in the Middle East, Ryabkov warned the U.S. against direct military assistance to Israel or even considering such “speculative options,” Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in January signed a strategic partnership treaty with Iran, has called for a cessation of hostilities between the two sides.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday addressed the conflict in the Middle East, emphasising support for Iran’s right to self-defence against Israel. He also condemned Israel’s leadership: “(Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu has long surpassed the tyrant Hitler in the crime of genocide. We hope their fates will not be the same.”, he said.

Twenty-one Arab and Muslim countries issued a joint statement Monday condemning Israel’s airstrikes on Iran and calling for regional de-escalation, nuclear disarmament “without selectivity” and respect for international law, according to Egypt’s official news agency MENA. The statement was the result of an initiative by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty following consultations with his counterparts across the region. The initiative includes Türkiye, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Brunei, Chad, Gambia, Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, Egypt and Mauritania.

However, a week after the crisis, a meeting between Iran’s foreign minister and top European diplomats on Friday yielded hopes of further talks but no immediate concrete breakthrough was made, reports AP.

Observations

Middle East oil has lost its golden period. The USA has surplus oil, and the ‘crude equivalent standard of petro-dollar’ is fast losing its relevance. President Trump and his close team, including family members, are more inclined to promote cryptocurrency as an alternative to the US dollar. The growing insecurity of Israel and its allies in an emerging multipolar world is one of the main reasons why Israel has attacked Iran’s nuclear sites and assassinated prominent nuclear scientists.

The century-old conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have manifested into a clash between the ‘‘Old World’’, and the “New World”. The American continent, discovered by the Europeans in the late fifteenth century, was called the New World. The Afro Eurasia-- a supercontinent, with the Suez isthmus connecting its parts of Africa and Eurasia is referred to as the ‘Old World’ because it has the Earth’s oldest civilisations. The Earth’s largest landmass and ancient Afro-Eurasian Rivers enabled various river valley civilisations to flourish in this region. The Western Judeo-Christian countries of Europe and North America, along with the newly created ‘Zionist homeland’ in Palestine, now represent the ‘New World’.

Since WW2, these New World countries, led by the USA, have continuously targeted the ancient countries of the MENA region to destroy the earliest civilisations. During the last eight decades, the USA, in collaboration with its Zionist and other Western allies, has invaded major Muslim-dominated countries - Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Syria, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Afghanistan to destroy their land, history, and long preserved inheritance.

Currently, a multipolar clash of civilisations, involving Western Judeo-Christian civilisation, Chinese Confucianism, Islamic resurgence, and Russian Eurasianism, is competing to shape the future of the Old World. While Israel enjoys the backing of the Western Judeo-Christians, the other three have aligned with Iran. The outcome of this war will determine the future of the Earth in the 21st century.

Significantly, in this major conflict, India, which bears the legacy of one of the oldest civilisations of Asia, has aligned with the Western Judeo-Christian bloc of the New World, and has arisen as the major ally of Zionist Israel, ditching its longstanding reliable friend, Iran.

Views expressed are personal

A Timeline of European and US Interventions in the Middle East and North Africa since WW1

1916: The Ottoman Empire fell after the Ottomans fought on the losing side of World War I. The war’s victors, England and France, then took over. Beginning with the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916 and continuing through a series of later treaties, the British and French carved up Ottoman lands for themselves. They drew borders in the Middle East that supported their own goals—such as access to trade routes—with little regard for those living in the region.

1932: King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud conquered the Arabian Peninsula and established the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.

1938: Saudi Arabia discovers Oil. Oil brought the Kingdom immediately into contact with the United States. Toward the end of World War II, U.S. energy experts feared American oil fields would run out. Securing new oil abroad became a national security priority.

1945: US President Franklin D. Roosevelt began to pursue closer relations with Ibn Saud. The two leaders met in February 1945, marking an important start to a bilateral relationship that continues to this day.

1947: The British, who had taken control of Palestine following the fall of Ottoman rule, announced their support for building a Jewish home in Palestine. In 1947, following World War II and the horrors of the Holocaust, the United Nations announced that Palestine would be partitioned into separate Jewish and Arab countries. Once the British left, Jewish leaders declared independence. Arabs, however, rejected the UN partition, which—in their view—seized their ancestral lands.

1948: The Arab-Israeli War broke out. Israelis refer to this conflict as their War of Independence, Arabs know it as the Nakba (Arabic for “catastrophe”), since it forced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to flee their homes. The United States supported Israel’s independence for moral, political, and strategic reasons. They also believed backing this young democracy would prevent the Soviet Union and communism from gaining a foothold in the region. Israel declares U.S.-backed Independence

1949: U.S. involvement in the Syrian coup d’état, supporting the overthrow of a nationalist government.

1953: CIA-backed coup in Iran to oust Prime Minister Mossadegh and restore the Shah. The Iranian parliament had nationalised the British Anglo-Iranian oil company in 1951.

1954: Iranian oil re-privatised, with the US and Britain in control. Popular opposition compels the Shah to rule through a reign of terror unrivalled in the region. The US helps fund a huge military and police build-up, and trains Savak, the notorious secret police.

1956: Egypt claims the Suez Canal. In the early twentieth century, Britain and France jointly managed the Suez Canal. But in 1956, Egypt’s charismatic leader, the anti-imperialist Gamal Abdel Nasser, announced his country would take over (“nationalise”) the canal. In response, Britain and France—along with Israel, which viewed Nasser as a potentially powerful enemy—invaded Egypt. The United States strongly opposed the invasion, worrying it would push Egypt closer to the Soviet Union and Communism. The United States forced Britain and France to withdraw from Egypt. The conflict changed the balance of power in the Middle East.

1957-58: Syria and Egypt take steps toward a merger, reflecting the revolutionary yearning of the Arab masses to unite against Western imperialism. The US Sixth Fleet is dispatched, and huge arms shipments are delivered to US client regimes.

1958: Two weeks after the Egypt/Syria merger, the US establishes the “Baghdad Pact,” uniting monarchies and puppet regimes against the threat of Nasserism and growing Soviet influence. The Baghdad Pact was a military alliance among Turkey, Iraq, Great Britain, Pakistan, and Iran. It aimed to prevent communist expansion into the Middle East and foster regional stability, with the US playing a significant role despite not formally joining. The pact was renamed the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) in 1959 after Iraq withdrew.

1967: The US provided military aid to Israel during the Six-Day War. Israel launched an attack against its Arab neighbours on June 5, 1967. These strikes destroyed the air forces of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, paving the way for rapid Israeli ground advances. By June 10, the land Israel controlled had tripled in size, as it took over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula to the banks of the Suez Canal, Syria’s Golan Heights, and the territories of East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank.

1970s: The US supported Jordan during Black September, a conflict with Palestinian factions.

1979: Striking oil workers and students in Iran call for the ousting of the Shah, sparking a revolutionary uprising. The US tells Shah it supports him “without reservation” and urges him to violently crush protests, but Shah is overthrown.

1980-1988: The US provided support to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, despite Iraq’s use of chemical weapons.

1990-1991: The US led a coalition to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi invasion in the Gulf War.

2001: The US invaded Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks, targeting al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

2003: The US invaded Iraq, leading to the ousting of Saddam Hussein’s regime.

2011: The US participated in a NATO-led intervention in Libya, resulting in the ousting and death of Muammar Gaddafi.

2011-Present: The US has been involved in the Syrian Civil War, supporting various factions and conducting airstrikes against ISIS.

2014-Present: The US has been involved in military operations in Iraq against ISIS.

2015-Present: The U.S. has been involved in Yemen, supporting the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi rebels.

2023-Present: Ongoing tensions and military actions in the region, including strikes against Iranian-backed groups and continued support for Israel during the Gaza genocide.