A Volatile Subcontinental Shift

Religious authoritarianism on the subcontinent, especially in Pakistan and India, is not new. The two nations were born based on religious identity. Bangladesh, which was established in 1971 based on linguistic and cultural identity, has also joined the dominant trend of the subcontinent, where the religion of the majority determines the identity and governance of the state. Although the Indian Constitution enshrines the principle of secularism and entitles every person in India to equal protection of the law, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) of 2019 clearly contradicts this fundamental constitutional principle. This CAA makes illegal migrants living in India from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh who belong to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi, and Christian religious communities eligible for Indian citizenship. The act notably excludes Muslim migrants.

India’s CAA 2019 has a resemblance to the Myanmar Citizenship Law of 1982, enacted by an unelected and xenophobic Burmese (Myanmar) military junta. Under the 1982 Citizenship Law, nationality in Myanmar is primarily acquired based on race or ethnicity rather than objective, non-discriminatory criteria. The 1982 Law embedded in legislation the concept of “national races,” replacing the concept of “indigenous races,” which had existed in the national law since 1948. The 1982 Law attributes the “national races” to eight specific ethnic groups. Despite living in Myanmar for many generations, the Rohingyas, mostly Muslims by religion, are not recognised as an official ethnic group and have been denied citizenship.

Wither Secular Bangladesh

On January 7, 2025, the Constitutional Reform Commission (CRC) of Bangladesh, headed by Professor Ali Riaz, submitted its report to Mohammad Yunus, the chief advisor to the interim government in Bangladesh. It is revealed that the CRC has proposed to remove the state principles of secularism, socialism, and nationalism from the constitution. It may be recalled that in 1977, General Ziaur Rahman, who assumed power through a military coup by ousting President Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayem and later founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), had removed ‘secularism,’ one of the four foundational principles of Bangladesh’s Constitution. This historical precedent underscores the recurring challenges to the constitutional framework and ideological identity of the state.

In the current context, several observable trends point toward the potential rise of Islamist radical entities in Bangladesh. One prominent indicator is the incorporation of radical Islamist political organisations, such as Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) and like-minded groups, into the interim government after the fall of the Hasina government in August 2024. Subsequently, the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus lifted the ban on BJI, its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, and “all associated organisations.” This development mirrors the events under the government led by General Ziaur Rahman (1975–1981). BJI, the largest Islamic political party in Bangladesh, is widely criticised for its unwavering support of the Pakistani Army during the 1971 Liberation War and its involvement in war crimes against the freedom fighters of East Pakistan, according to political analysts.

Since August 2024, taking advantage of the political vacuum after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government, several Islamist groups, primarily Hizb ut-Tahrir, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Hefazat-e-Islam, have become very active. Mufti Jashimuddin Rahmani, the leader of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), who was released following Hasina’s ouster, wasted no time in calling for jihad against India, urging the liberation of West Bengal from “Modi’s rule.” He has also sought help from Pakistan and Afghanistan in the fight for “independence in Jammu and Kashmir.” Suggestively, a recent investigative report published by BLITZ, a leading Bangladesh weekly, has alleged that Muhammad Yunus’ global ‘Grameen Network’ has connections with individuals identified by Western intelligence agencies as financiers of Osama Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda Network.

Emerging Bangladesh-Pakistan Axis

After Biden’s defeat to Trump in 2024, Muhammad Yunus, a major donor to the Clinton Foundation who enjoys long-standing ties to influential figures like the Clintons, Barack Obama, and George Soros, hurriedly met the Chinese president to shield himself from Trump’s wrath. Following Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, when Yunus referred to the election outcome as a “solar eclipse,” China has apparently shown a cold shoulder to Yunus, especially after the successful completion of the 25th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), held from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin. Post-SCO Summit, the new geostrategic alliance among India, China, and Russia, which has very high stakes in Bangladesh, significantly changed Bangladesh’s strategic importance to China.

As the Bangladesh interim government does not fit into the new geostrategic axis of India–China–Russia, Muhammad Yunus has turned to General Munir of Pakistan, who is close to President Trump, to establish a Pakistan–Bangladesh alliance. Yunus has steered foreign policy away from India, creating an opportunity for Pakistan to re-engage with Bangladesh. On June 20, 2025, Bangladesh became the first South Asian country, and 56th overall, to accede to the Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (UN Water Convention). By joining the UN Water Convention, Bangladesh signalled a clear lack of confidence in India, with which it shares 57 transboundary rivers. This move by the Yunus government might complicate water-sharing agreements in the future.

During the last year, Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have met at least three times. Trade between Bangladesh and Pakistan grew by 27 per cent in the five months following Hasina’s ouster. Pakistani artists have performed in Dhaka to packed audiences, signalling a new cultural warmth. Pakistan also announced 500 scholarships for Bangladeshi students. Cargo vessels carrying essential commodities from Pakistan have docked at Chittagong for the first time since 1971.

In the last week of October, an eight-member delegation of the Pakistan Army—led by General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Army Chief General Asim Munir’s top lieutenant—visited Bangladesh. During his visit, he met Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus, the army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, and the navy and air force chiefs, discussing trade, investment, and defence collaboration. Muhammad Yunus stirred fresh controversy after presenting a gift to the visiting Pakistani general that featured a distorted map of Northeast India in Bangladesh. The controversial map appears to represent the idea of a “Greater Bangladesh,” a concept propagated by the Dhaka-based Islamist group Sultanat-e-Bangla. The group’s version of the map extends Bangladesh’s borders to include all of India’s Northeast, West Bengal, parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Myanmar’s Arakan region. In 2024, Yunus’s close associate Nahidul Islam had circulated a similar map online, suggesting the inclusion of West Bengal, Tripura, and Assam within Bangladesh’s territory. The issue was later raised in India’s Rajya Sabha in August 2025 by Congress MP Randeep Singh Surjewala, reports The Economic Times.

It appears Bangladesh is going the Pakistani way. The economic instability and the rise of religious extremism in Bangladesh could mirror the challenges Pakistan has faced over the last eight decades, leading it to the verge of economic and political bankruptcy. Pakistan’s ongoing political crisis has escalated due to a constitutional dispute over the military chief’s authority and the government’s attempts to centralise power. The 27th Constitutional Amendment, signed on November 13 by Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, grants broad new powers to Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, who will now serve as Chief of Defence Forces, bringing the Navy and Air Force under his command.

The recent rumours of ousted Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s death in jail hardly came as a shock to anyone, as in Pakistan, most ex-Prime Ministers were jailed, exiled, or even killed. Imran Khan himself had prophesied his possible death in jail, warning that “if anything happens,” army chief Asim Munir must be held responsible.” Imran’s warning and the repeated rumours about his death have revived memories of one of Pakistan’s bleakest political chapters—the Bhutto–Zia era, as noted by Moneycontrol. It may be recalled that in 1977, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, was toppled in a military coup by General Zia-ul-Haq. Bhutto was jailed, tried on contentious charges, and eventually executed inside prison. His 1979 hanging is still described by many observers as a “judicial murder,” a politically driven elimination of a popular civilian leader.

Political analysts mention that the death sentence for Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh has a disturbing echo of the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto saga from 1978 Pakistan. The farce of a trial against Sheikh Hasina in 2025 bears a striking resemblance to the 1978 trial and execution (in 1979) of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto under the regime of military dictator General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. Much like Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, Bhutto, the founder of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), was ousted in a 1977 coup.

A Bubbling Volcano

At a time when the interim administration has promised elections by April, Bangladesh is passing through a political vacuum. Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League is barred from contesting the election, and two-time former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the Chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is hospitalised due to her deteriorating health condition. Her son, acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman, is still abroad. Bangladesh is facing a serious political crisis—especially after Hasina’s conviction for her crime against humanity. Myanmar, devastated by prolonged civil war, will also hold elections in the next few weeks. Added to these, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI) in West Bengal and a few other poll-bound states has created panic and political unrest. In West Bengal alone, over 40 people have died due to the ill-planned SIR process, which is perceived by many as an exercise to disfranchise a section of citizens, as was done to the Rohingya community in Myanmar.

The political condition of India and its neighbouring countries—Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—individually and collectively resembles a bubbling volcano waiting to erupt. Though the “neighbourhood first policy” was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s signature foreign policy initiative that sought to develop better relations with the country’s neighbours, it has made more enemies than friends in the region. Experts believe that the policy has failed to take meaningful direction, as Modi’s aggressive posture has prevented the country from winning allies in the region. Immature handling of the Bangladesh crisis after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster is a case in point.

As Modi’s foreign policy has miserably failed, India must revisit the Gujral Doctrine—a set of five principles to guide the conduct of foreign relations with India’s immediate neighbours. I.K. Gujral, India’s former Prime Minister, introduced this doctrine in 1996. These principles arise from the belief that India’s stature and strength cannot be divorced from the quality of its relations with its neighbours. These principles are:

(i) With neighbours like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, India does not ask for reciprocity but gives and accommodates what it can in good faith and trust;

(ii) No South Asian country should allow its territory to be used against the interests of another country of the region;

(iii) No country should interfere in the internal affairs of another;

(iv) All South Asian countries must respect each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; and

(v) They should settle all their disputes through peaceful bilateral negotiations.

For a peaceful South Asia, Narendra Modi’s “security-centric approach” should be replaced with Gujral’s “friendship-centric approach” to regain the confidence and trust of neighbours who have developed closer relations with China, discarding India.