A recalibration window
As Pakistan hosts the 23rd session of the Heads of Government meeting of the SCO, India stands a chance to renew its approach towards the grouping, so as to improve relations with Pakistan, China, and West Asia, and ward off potential isolation in the neighbourhood
The 23rd session of the Heads of Government (HOG) meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be held on October 15-16, 2024, in Islamabad, Pakistan. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited by his Pakistani counterpart, who is host of the meeting, to participate in this conclave. The 22nd meeting of the Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) Council of the SCO was hosted in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on October 26, 2023.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), created in 2001, has ten countries as its members. These countries work together on security and economic issues. The present members are: China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India was admitted as a full member of SCO in 2017, and in 2023, Iran officially joined the SCO as the ninth member country. In July 2024 Belarus was admitted as the tenth member of the group. Belarus is the first European member of SCO. SCO also has two observer countries in Afghanistan and Mongolia. It also has 14 dialogue partners: Sri Lanka, Turkey, Cambodia, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Armenia, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Myanmar, the Maldives, and the United Arab Emirates.
Every year, SCO holds two very important meets on a regular basis: (i) Council of Heads of State (HOS) meeting where the leaders of the countries in the SCO come together to discuss important issues and make decisions, (ii) Council of Heads of Government (HOG) meeting, another important meeting where the heads of government (like Prime Ministers) of the SCO countries discuss and plan their cooperation.
India, under its first-ever presidency of SCO, hosted the 23rd meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State (HOS) on July 4, 2023 in virtual format. The 24th Summit of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ended on July 4 at Astana—the capital city of Kazakhstan. With the summit’s conclusion, the People’s Republic of China assumed the SCO chairmanship for the next term. China will be responsible for hosting the 25th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State (HOS) in 2025.
Importance of SCO
SCO’s origins lie in the ‘Shanghai Five’, formed in 1996 and consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In June 2001, the SCO was established as an international organisation, with Uzbekistan joining as the sixth founding member to combat terrorism and promote border security.
The SCO is one of the few international organisations that deal with security issues and primarily has Asian members. Analysts see Iran’s inclusion as a step toward further enhancing the international status and influence of the organisation, and for Iran, it is an important step in breaking the US diplomatic blockade.
It is believed that China uses SCO summits to promote what it calls a “multilateral” world order, one not dominated by the US. Analysts argue that Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, advocate for establishing a multipolar world order to appeal to countries in the Global South, which have felt let down by US-dominated geopolitics. The SCO is a suitable platform to send a message to the Western world that there are many voices from emerging economies that need to be heard and represented. Along with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), Russia and China are seen as positioning the SCO against US influence.
Nonetheless, tension exists among SCO members. There is a sense of friendly competition between China and Russia over who wields greater influence at forums like the SCO and BRICS. Although the Central Asian republics have traditionally been viewed as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, China has sought to leverage the oil- and gas-rich nations through investments in massive infrastructure projects in the region. This has occurred alongside China’s rising economic strength in recent years, with the projects being part of its larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The inclusion of both India and Pakistan in 2017 can also be viewed from the perspective of balancing power within the SCO. It is said that Russia supported India’s entry as a longstanding strategic partner, while China backed its ally Pakistan to prevent the balance of power from tilting in Russia’s favour.
One of the main objectives of the SCO is to safeguard regional peace, security, and stability. To achieve this, the SCO established the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), a permanent body that coordinates counterterrorism efforts among member states. Established in 2002, RATS promotes cooperation between member states to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. India is an active participant in RATS activities.
The Islamabad Summit
The 23rd HOG meeting of the SCO will gather top leaders from over ten regional countries, including notable figures such as the Russian and Chinese prime ministers. However, protests by the opposition PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and a major suicide bombing outside Karachi airport that killed Chinese civilians have cast a shadow over the event.
The Pakistan government has announced a three-day holiday in the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and Rawalpindi District starting on October 14 to ensure the safety and protection of delegates attending the SCO summit. Reuters reported that Pakistani authorities are seeking to curb the movements of Chinese citizens during the SCO meeting due to security risks from militant groups targeting them. This decision follows the killing of two Chinese engineers in a bombing near Karachi's international airport on Sunday, claimed by the separatist militant group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). The government has also decided to deploy the army to maintain law and order during the summit.
Political commentators believe that the upcoming SCO summit in Islamabad offers Pakistan an unprecedented opportunity to redefine its role in the Global South and elevate its position on the global stage. Given its focus on regional security, economic cooperation, and political coordination, the SCO’s growing relevance in global geopolitics aligns with Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives. At a time when Pakistan is mired in economic and political crises, the SCO summit provides an opportunity for Pakistan to present itself as a country capable of hosting and addressing global summits and issues, analysts say.
Pakistani media is bullish about the event. According to them, historically, Pakistan has been a bridge between South and Central Asia due to its geographical positioning, and the SCO summit is expected to reinforce this role. Moreover, the organisation’s focus resonates deeply with Pakistan, a country that has faced significant internal and external security challenges. As the SCO expands its role beyond security into areas of economic and infrastructural development, Pakistan has the potential to play a pivotal role, particularly as an energy and trade corridor linking Central Asia to the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a tangible manifestation of this connectivity, and the SCO summit can further amplify Pakistan’s role in regional trade and commerce. Pakistan’s Federal Information Minister Attaullah Tarar emphasised on Wednesday that the summit offers a valuable opportunity to showcase Pakistan’s soft and positive image to the world, reports Dawn. For Pakistan, the SCO offers an opportunity to reinvigorate the platform and sharpen its focus on promoting closer economic cooperation, particularly regional trade, connectivity, the digital economy, and youth engagement.
The Islamabad SCO Summit will also give Iran the opportunity to discuss, among other topics, its position on the ongoing war between Iran and Israel with Chinese and Russian leaders. The summit gains further importance following unconfirmed reports that Iran has conducted its first-ever nuclear bomb test. The Hindustan Times (HT) writes that reports of Iran testing its first nuclear weapon appear to have sparked a tectonic shift in the Middle East's dynamics. According to HT, a major Arab ally of the United States seems to be wooing Iran, especially in light of Tehran's clear threats against US allies in the region, aimed at deterring an Israeli attack. As tensions escalate, several key Arab powers are making overtures to Iran in an attempt to curry favour, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of alliances that could challenge US dominance in the region.
If Iran becomes a nuclear power, the SCO will boast five of its members—China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran—possessing nuclear bombs, which can serve as a deterrent against any form of aggression in an emerging multipolar world order.
SCO and India
The SCO Summit in Pakistan offers an opportunity to amend India’s misguided foreign policy, which has left India friendless in South Asia. India’s diplomatic strategies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government have backfired, leaving the nation with few allies in its own neighbourhood. India’s much-hyped ‘neighbours first’ policy has failed miserably. Regional players and India’s traditional allies, like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, have tilted towards China. According to Nikkei Asia, these tensions have reportedly been fuelled by a combination of internal political dynamics, mismanagement of regional partnerships, and India’s perceived alignment with global powers like the US and Japan.
India, which became a member of the SCO in 2017, has never taken the SCO seriously. It is alleged that due to India’s close ties with Western countries and its active membership in QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)—a grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—the SCO’s primary objective of creating a multilateral world order has not been achieved. Though QUAD was established in 2007, it was nearly defunct until it was revived in 2017, the same year India joined the SCO.
Lately, India has been seen downgrading its participation in SCO activities. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stayed away from the Astana summit, and India shifted the SCO summit it hosted last year to a virtual format. In an article published in Nikkei Asia, scholar Brahma Chellaney observed that India seems to be having “second thoughts” about its involvement in the SCO, mainly because of the latter’s “anti-Western orientation,” which conflicts with the pro-Western tilt of Modi’s foreign policy. India’s hostile approach toward Pakistan seems to be guided by what Ajit Doval terms “offensive defence.” This aggressive tactic has undermined the work of SCO’s most important mechanism, the Tashkent-based Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), writes Dawn.
India can also use the SCO platform to leverage its investments in Iran’s Chabahar port. In May this year, a ten-year agreement was signed between Indian Ports Global Ltd. (IPGL) and the Port and Maritime Organisation (PMO) of Iran, enabling the operation of the Shahid-Beheshti terminal. Iran, historically close to India, can play an important role in India’s strategic outreach in West Asia, especially with members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). However, India’s increasing friendship with Zionist Israel is isolating it in Middle Eastern politics.
Apparently, India has not changed its policy of ignoring the SCO, though it could have used the platform to resolve issues like the sharing of Indus waters with Pakistan. Instead of the Indian Prime Minister, the External Affairs Minister (EAM) is expected to participate in the Islamabad Summit. This will be the first visit by an Indian EAM to Pakistan in nine years, following Sushma Swaraj’s last visit. According to a press report, the External Affairs Minister says India won’t change its stance on boycotting SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), criticising Nehru for a ‘serious misjudgement’ of Pakistan. Asserting that he is attending a multilateral meeting and not discussing bilateral ties, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar clarified on Saturday (October 5, 2024) that his visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) does not change India’s position on boycotting SAARC in Pakistan, reports The Hindu.
The last ministerial visit to Pakistan was in December 2016, when then Home Minister Rajnath Singh attended the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) ministers’ meeting. SAARC has since become defunct. After the 2019 Pulwama incident in February, followed by the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir in August, Pakistan snapped its trade and travel links with India, expelled India’s High Commissioner, and recalled its own High Commissioner. The SCO platform may help bring these two neighbours closer and serve as an inflexion point for India-Pakistan ties.
Observation
India has become increasingly isolated from its immediate neighbours. Making SAARC defunct was a diplomatic blunder. The SCO offers a ready platform to improve strained relations with Pakistan and China. Moreover, the SCO will also help India leverage its investments in Iran and develop more cordial relations with West Asian countries. India’s growing friendship with Zionist Israel and its decision to supply weapons to Israel do not align with the spirit of the SCO. India must rethink its recent Israel policy and follow the Nehruvian policy of non-alignment, aligning itself with the countries of the Global South.
Views expressed are personal