Undoing the raw deal

Russia's invasion is not only a clear and brutal violation of Ukraine's sovereignty but also an outrageous assault on the foundation of the world order that has been in place since the end of World War II.

The invasion threatens to destabilise the already volatile post-Soviet region with serious ramifications for the security structure that has governed Europe since the 1990s. Russian president Vladimir Putin has long lamented the loss of Ukraine and other republics since the Soviet Union disintegrated.

Putin has described the Soviet disintegration as a catastrophe that robbed Russia of its rightful place among the world's great powers and put it at the mercy of a predatory West.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO expanded eastward, eventually taking in most of the European nations that had been dominated by the Communists. The Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, once parts of the Soviet Union, joined NATO, as did Poland, Romania and others.

As a result, NATO moved hundreds of miles closer to Russia. What enraged Putin was Ukraine's willingness to become part of NATO. Putin calls NATO's expansion menacing, and the prospect of Ukraine joining it a major threat to his country.

Russia presented NATO and the US last December a set of written demands that it said were needed to ensure its security. Foremost among them was a guarantee that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO and that NATO would reduce its forces in the Eastern Europe. The West dismissed these demands.

The timing of Putin's "special military action" in Ukraine could be related to the transition from President Donald Trump, who was friendly to him and critical of NATO, to President Joe Biden, who is committed to the alliance and suspicious of Moscow.

Biden, who had forewarned Putin of "economic consequences like one he's ever seen", began putting them in place after the Russian troops launched an offensive against Ukraine.

The West had also warned Putin before the invasion that although it would not send troops to defend Ukraine, it would roll out a wide-ranging and unforgiving set of economic sanctions.

Soon after the invasion, Biden announced tough sanctions aimed at cutting off Russia's largest banks and some oligarchs from much of the global financial system, and preventing the country from importing American technology critical to its defence, aerospace and maritime industries.

The US is also freezing trillions of dollars in Russian assets, including the funds controlled by Russian elites and their families, making them pay for what Biden said "a premeditated attack" against a free nation in Europe.

Western governments have also vowed to freeze assets belonging to Putin, but very little is known about what and where he owns. The West seems to be determined to isolate Putin politically and strangulate Russia economically.

The critical question is, however, whether the biting sanctions will force Russia to regret the war or will the isolation lead it to further upping the ante. Let us not forget that Russia is a nuclear power and Putin has already put nuclear forces on high alert.

The track record of economic sanctions is mixed at the best. The US has imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. For both the regimes, the sanctions have had little effect on the political stance.

Iraq was subjected to the UN sanctions after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. While millions of Iraqis suffered, the regime survived, even after the bulk of Saddam Hussain's army was destroyed in the first Gulf war. Saddam Hussain's survival, despite the sanctions, angered the then US President George W Bush so much that he finally invaded Iraq under a flimsy pretext of it having nuclear weapons.

Iraq continues to struggle to this day as a result of the 2003 invasion by the US. While Putin is being held accountable for his invasion of Ukraine, no one ever pointed a finger at the US or the UK for starting a war that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians and destroyed much of the country.

Syria is also under international sanctions following Basher al Assad regime's bloody clampdown on a popular uprising in 2011. Even though much of the country has been ravaged by war, Basher has survived and is slowly coming out of the regional isolation.

Libya's Muammar Qaddafi regime was also put under various sanctions and, if it were not for the Western military intervention in 2011, he would have crushed the popular uprising against his dictatorship.

The small island nation of Cuba has faced decades of American sanctions, while Fidel Castro regime withstood attempts by the CIA and Cuban exiles to topple or liquidate him.

North Korea is another example. The regime here has managed to stay intact despite Western sanctions. Economic sanctions have failed to deter its leader Kim Jong-un from carrying out a dangerous nuclear programme.

India also faced sanctions by the US, Japan and certain European countries immediately after the Pokhran nuclear tests in May 1998.

The sanctions consisted of cutting off all assistance to India, except humanitarian aid, banning the export of certain defence materials and technologies, ending American credit and credit guarantees and requiring the US to oppose lending by international financial institutions to India.

The proactive diplomacy undertaken by India in June 1998 culminated in a whole new relationship built between the US and India. The US became the first country to have a nuclear deal with India and the countries that had advocated for sanctions pushed for the waiver for India at the Nuclear Suppliers Group in 2008. India is now a member of multilateral export control regimes — MTCR, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group — and is in the reckoning for membership of the NSG.

Even Russia under Putin's leadership came under a much-diluted set of sanctions when it unilaterally annexed Crimea in 2014. Russia's economy faltered for a couple of years and then slowly recovered.

The sanctions now imposed on Russia aim to completely remove it from the global economic map. However, it will also affect the rest of the world. Europe has important trade ties with Russia, and stands to lose far more than the US from sanctions. It is also dependent on Russian gas supplies, a weakness that Putin has exploited in past disputes.

Also at stake for Europe is the security structure that has helped keep the peace in the continent since World War II.

The act of war by Russia should be regarded as a serious challenge to the norms and values of not just Europe but the entire global community. Countries need to stand against Russia in unity and provide support to Ukraine.

However, despite the punitive action, it would be wise for the world not to give up diplomatic efforts to persuade Russia into halting its military operation that has resulted in deaths and destruction in Ukraine. The international community needs to make serious efforts to bring Russia to reason.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent for the same. Views expressed are personal