The festival of ballot

The attention of the entire country is concurrently riveted on two IPLs – the annual Indian Premier League cricket matches, and the quinquennial Indian Political League ballot matches. However, with engaging news, debates of experts, analyses of psephologists, stargazers and others on channels and other media, with the hustle of colourful rallies and road shows and house visits by politicians across the country, it is the IPL ballot which assumes the proportions of a grand festival.

Festival time is marked by holidays, gaiety, and melas. Households begin preparations much in advance – cleaning and painting, preparing sweet-meats, purchasing gold and new clothes. Children wait in anticipation of gifts and money. And, melas are full of entertainment – amusements, eateries, and games like balloon-shooting, throwing rings over coveted articles; musicians and tricksters; betting games and gambling. Face readers, parrot-predictions and astrologers are inescapable. There are also cock-fights, street plays, and dramas, and at some places even special shows of glamorous actors. Then, on the festival day, apart from religious rituals, there would be non-stop entertainment on TV – with cinemas, Veda Pathanam, astrological predictions, etc. There is incessant gambling for days at several places, like in Arunachal Pradesh, where people initially mortgage their vehicles and finally sell them at throwaway prices. Features of the ballot festival are similar, although much bigger and pan-Indian.

Much before the election dates have been announced, a festive mood was set in when work on new roads began; old roads and pot-holes repaired and black-topping done; existing roads widened. Murk and slush of five years' accumulation in gutters and streets began vanishing, depriving mosquitoes of happy times; saplings planted with pressmen and photographers standing in attendance. Street lights, with new fixtures, suddenly began shattering the darkness in several places which had remained unattended in spite of several complaints. Increasing the frequency of their visits, MLAs, with glowing faces, broad smiles, and beseeching expressions, began greeting people. But, people are aware that the glow is of satiation of authority; the smile, of satisfaction – of having recovered his investment in the last elections; and also of having saved enough for his posterity.

Political parties and candidates have already begun their preparations to distribute liquor, money and gifts in exchange for ballot. Right contacts, like caste and group leaders, have been established. Rallies and road-shows have also begun.

Finally, dates were announced to choose the 17th Lok Sabha – polling in seven phases, beginning April 11 and ending on May 19; with results on May 23. We have also come a long way – from 'psephos' (pebbles) of ancient Greeks to paper ballots to EVMs and VVPATs. It is not an easy task with India being the 7th largest in the area and 2nd most populous country in the world; there being nearly 2000 parties and 8000 candidates to contest for 543 seats. Voters' lists had already been updated. There would be 90 crore eligible voters, increase by 9 crores over the past.

Elaborate arrangements would have to be made, presuming everyone would vote; in the past elections 27.3 crore people did not vote. Millions of poll workers, police and security personnel will have to be put on job in cities, towns, villages and hamlets. In addition to SUVs, trucks, etc., arrangements would also have to made for planes, boats, trains, helicopters, elephants, camels, and travel on foot, for them to reach far-flung voters, since every vote counts.

While the election officials are burning the midnight oil to get ready to manage the mammoth task, excitement is growing in every nook and corner as the festive day is closing up; everyone speaking about elections, candidates, and parties. There are constant debates even in homes. There are also tussles over TV rights – to watch cricket or electioneering. As a rare phenomenon, families are shunning soap operas in favour of the non-stop entertainment on channels – election news and the games of the Indian Political League, youngsters reconciling to watch cricket on their smartphones. Print media does not lag behind. Telephones are constantly buzzing; conversations mostly veering around politics – local, state and national.

The festival of ballot is now in full swing; rallies and road shows in place of street plays – old actors in new outfits and head-gears, and also new ones; holding bows and arrows and maces; new plots and new technology; LCD screens; dialogues increasingly becoming vitriolic. Lured by money, biryani and liquor, workers happily desert their daily jobs in shops and construction works to join the rallies and road shows. Sometimes, film personalities add spice to the occasions. Paid girls cheer in cricket matches, and hired crowds applaud political games! It is also a good time for script and dialogue writers, make-up artists, and event managers, and transporters.

Candidates reach every potential area for votes, speak their language and act as one among them – a fisherman among the fishing community; a tailor for the tailors, a farmer for farmers, a businessman among businessmen, and so on. People only wonder whether the minister in Andhra Pradesh against whom a transgender is contesting would also act as a transgender to woo that community since in the presence of media he tries to make pots along with potters!

People know the wiles and guiles of politicians well. And the politicians know the people too well. They compete in the bidding of promises and sops; make arrangements for flow of liquor in place of the spoonful of sacred 'teerath' in puja; plenty of biryani instead of measly langar as 'prashad'. People, in their wisdom, are only waiting for the election day to collect money and gifts from every party; yet, to vote for the one from their caste and community.

With two phases of voting already gone by, excitement has subdued in these places. Only those people at chowks, hotels, offices, houses, keep talking, keeping their fingers crossed. 'Who will win?' asks one. 'Surely, the BJP', says a supporter. 'No, I bet, it will be Rahul,' says another. 'Still, five phases of voting are left. Only God will decide,' tells another. The others agree. Predictions and betting are striking features of ballot festival too.

Astrology, numerology, tarot cards, etc., whichever expert matters, he is on the TV; is in newspapers. Some favour Modi and BJP while some, Congress, and some expect a hung Parliament; each one strongly justifying his prediction because of the positions of planets and stars as applied to birth charts of leaders and also their parties. Some cautious astrologers, however, add a caveat, saying, in spite of their predictions, everything could be changed with efforts – like EVM tampering.

Politicians, being very shrewd, are aware that Heaven does not decide the result; it is the people. They use every trick known in the trade; and also innovate for newer ones, including the extensive use of technology. With 430 million smartphone users; half billion using the Internet; 300 million Facebook; 200 million sending messages on Whatsapp; 30 million using Twitter, they are aggressively using new technology and social media in order to win the hearts and minds of people, especially the 13 crore first-time voters. They even engage their own psephologists to guide them with their analyses.

Derived from the word 'psephos', psephologists, who are supposedly politically-neutral, analyse elections. Using tools like past election's facts and figures and public opinion polls, they study election patterns and deviations; trends of voting, swings in votes, number of votes polled or percentage of total votes polled translating into the number of seats in the government. While exciting people with their analyses, they also help parties in strategising.

Their strategies become all the more important when a party came to power in the previous elections on razor-thin edge in several constituencies. For example, in Andhra Pradesh, in the last elections, both the parties were evenly poised, and the Opposition YSRC lost 46 seats with very thin margins. A mere one per cent swing can change their fates this time too. So, as the election day was nearing, the second rung leaders were put into action, by both the parties, to distribute cash – Rs 25000 per family, and also gold, silver, sports kits etc; caste-based votes were also targeted by inducing their leaders. Farmers across the country are the most sought after by every party; hence the myriad schemes, concessions, and freebies.

While the parties are strategising, quite many punters use the predictions, and analyses of psephologists to play their betting games on the outcome, alongside their gambling on cricket matches. Social evils cannot go that easily. It will go on till the rest of five phases of voting is over and the results are announced. With hate-speeches also stopped with SC's reprimand to Election Commission, the excitement of the festival will continue.

However, amidst all the excitement, people are also anxious, waiting for better days. The surgical strike did not ease the pain of demonetisation; the title of 'Chowkidar' has not relieved the pangs of loss and non-creation of jobs, and closure of businesses. Neither the Shakti of A-SAT nor the raining of cash and doles, freebies and sops, would change the lives of the common man. None of these can compensate for the deprivation of their right for equal distribution of wealth; freedom of thought and expression; and real democracy. And none of these can improve India's ranking from among the unhappiest countries in the world.

A Christian proverb says: 'Give a man fish; you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish; you feed him for a lifetime.' Educated or illiterate; urbanite or rustic, no one wants to be a beggar to receive alms. They all want jobs and decent livelihood, amenities like drinking water, affordable healthcare and subsidised loans. They want to live with dignity. Now, the choice is theirs. In the elections, they are the masters.

(Dr. N Dilip Kumar is a retired IPS officer and a former member of Public Grievances Commission, Delhi. The views expressed are strictly personal)