Talking Shop: Belly-up syndrome

“A Government’s view of the

economy can be summed up

thus—if it moves, tax it; if it

keeps moving, regulate it; if

it stops moving, subsidize it.”

—Ronald Reagan

Former United States President Ronald Reagan wasn’t just emphatic in his statement, he was acerbic and assertive too. He had to be. As head of the largest and strongest economy in the world, the US President was privy to myriad strings being pulled and lies spread to keep the truth from people (or the people from the truth, whichever is caustically more appropriate). Decades after his term, a diabolical Governmental economic subterfuge continues, and not just in the United States. Regimes large and small, democratic, communist or anarchist, all speak with a forked tongue, in a language ridden with lies, malintent and the singular objective of spreading the feel-good myth of well-being and security, even as economies and financial edifices fall and lives are driven asunder.

Slowdown gizmos are not explosives, but deadlier in their potential, for while bombs may annihilate everything within a blast radius, economic strike-dead doodads can decapitate a nation. Worldwide, the timer is ticking and the countdown is moving inexorably towards zilch. Unless corrective action is taken fast, the weights cramping economies will iron-bloat till balance sheets turn crimson, with Corporate growth caught dead-centre in the crosshairs. The West has been facing this dilemma for a while, with Corporate numbers dwindling, demand falling, inflation rising and central banks gnawing away at half-chewed nails with blunted teeth, desperate to conjure up a solution. The pain is now East-bound, with Japan already ringing the economic alarm bells. What comes next? Belly up.

Predictable US jaw-flexing

I thank US President Joe Biden for helping me revisit the Sippy father-son duo who blessed us with Sholay in 1975 and the famous dialogue: “Gabbar, tum ek maroge, hum char maarenge (You kill one, we will kill four).” Almost exactly 50 years later, the US is flexing its jaw muscles, with Biden issuing a stern warning after bloody US military strikes in Iraq and Syria and heightened tensions in the Middle-East. “The US does not seek a conflict in the Middle-East, but if any American is harmed, the country will respond,” he said, marking the beginning of what could be a series of substantial strikes against Iran-backed militias which have been implicated in attacks on US troops in the region.

That’s rich, coming from a country fighting a quasi- proxy-war with Iran in the Red Sea, igniting a South Asian supply chain and inventory crisis that threatens manufacturing operations in the region, impacting facilities and factories which were anyway operating at record lows. The ‘Red Sea Crisis’ has been disrupting supplies and pushing up input raw material costs (and eventually end-product prices) since the proxy war began in October. Indian firms are impacted too as they use the Red Sea route through the Suez Canal to trade with Europe, North America, North Africa and the Middle-East. The disruption is catalysing supply constraints across sectors, leading to wasted production capacities, lower inventories and higher prices. The only people still smiling are those working in shipping and freight companies, which are demanding higher transportation rates. Belly up.

Job fairy runs away

Till but a few years back, India was in the driver’s seat of the global recruitment juggernaut, with millions of freshers securing appointment letters for high-paying jobs even before they passed out of engineering and management institutes, some the best in the world. Today, the white-skirted fairy has run away, with her deserted silvery wand that could conjure up magical employment being trodden over by those running after her in vain. The number of runners in this uphill ‘I-need-a-job’ race is sobering in itself, as even the most premier of Indian employers are opting to re-skill those employees who they haven’t sacked, putting on hold further new recruitments.

What does one say when even those passing out of the most prestigious management institutes are depending on their alumni to find employment of any kind? One such institute recently sent out a clarion call to former passouts, asking them for help in these hard times. Case in point: IIM Lucknow reportedly reached out to its alumni for help after 72 students failed to get employment. A message asked students from the 2011 batch to use their “unique connections and networks” to find jobs for these students to help maintain a historical 100-per cent placement record. Those passing out of premier engineering institutes are faring no better, with software majors like Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Infosys and HCL Tech either abstaining from campus hiring or hiring fewer freshers.

If this be the case with the cream of India’s fresh management and engineering talent, what lies in store for those without these boast-worthy degrees, or none at all? What of blue-collar workers caught up in these times when joblessness is at a 45-year high? Well, belly up.

Freak times. Freakier climes

This year, those living in the plains of Northern India have been battling weather conditions colder than those witnessed even in the higher Himalayas. The National Capital Region of Delhi has not just notched up the coldest sustained winter in recorded history, ever, it has also seen the highest-ever sales of room heaters and allied appliances. In the oscillating process of shivering and sweating (both over the weather and electricity bills), Delhi also saw its highest-ever demand for electric power.

Whilst on power, let’s move to the hill stations of Manali and Shimla, which saw their latest-ever recorded first-snowfall dates, January 26 and February 1, respectively. Little or no snow means less melting water once the seasons switch gears, which leads to lower water tables. Lower water tables mean stunted power generation at the battery of hydel projects that now visually-stigmatize our once-beautiful mountain landscapes. Stunted power generation, while a blessing for electricity bills, means a curse for those living in North India when Summer Chacha comes knocking—and he is almost at the door. What happens in a power crunch in the heart of the Indian summer? Belly up.

Recipe of the day… Into this freakish boiling pot, add a pinch of the possible PayTM collapse; some new temple-mosque issues; the blow-hot, blow-cold Maldives standoff; continued atrocities in Hamas-Israel; detention of ‘leaders’ in lock-ups globally; cross-country yatras that turn into dharnas and logjams; loco-man recruitment ads that (t)rack up their own storm; incandescent and indiscreet videos that go viral; static repo rates in the Developing World as central bankers scratch their heads; and, hell, even Djokovic’s lumpy-limpy loss at the Australian Open. Things aren’t good. Belly up.

After all this smelly belly business, I can only offer you another quote from Reagan: “Recession is when a neighbour loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours.” The intrinsic moral of his words is to not just have a heart, but to show it too. We have shown enough of our bellies, and most of them aren’t all that rousing or inspiring. It is time then to wake up to today’s reality. Belly down.

The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. He can be reached on narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com. Views expressed are personal