Our own bargain

The world powers are in a state of shock over the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan within days of withdrawal of American forces. The citadel of democratic and Constitutional government has fallen like a pack of cards or a sandcastle built near a seashore. The chilling scenes of human bodies falling from airborne planes is a grim reminder that modern humanity had failed to vouch for a civilized world whatever we, or the fangless United Nation, may act or pretend to act. The withdrawal of the US forces is one of the worst forms of chicanery exhibited by the so-called superpower of the world. World leaders need to ponder over this and resolve to prevent uncertainties arising out of such takeover of a country, and leaving them in the lurch suddenly. Indian government must chart out a strict national policy based on its interests without harping on widely reported polemics by other national governments after the debacle of the Ashraf Ghani government. Let us discuss the genesis of this problem.

The Taliban took over Afghanistan in 1996 after publicly hanging the then President Najibullah from a lamp post in Kabul; Najibullah was mercilessly dragged on the road by the Taliban forces which showed how the Taliban was going to govern the country. The rest is the history of its torture, annihilation of modern ways of living, and imposition of strict Islamic principles in governance. Then, the World Trade Centre attack in September 2001 brought back Americans in Afghanistan and the new set-up ruled for 20 years until recently. It amassed a huge army with the latest weapons and a lot of money was pumped in for developmental projects. But this foreign-driven so-called modern regime in Afghanistan proved out to be very superficial and unsustainable.

American strategists have either always been inefficient in charting out a policy or they do it deliberately to create chaos, as they only boast about their superior weapons and electronic warfare technologies. Notwithstanding their superior projections, so far, they have always been defeated in all their ventures — be it in Vietnam or now in Afghanistan. The question that people must ask is who is responsible for so much bloodshed in both instances. Have the Americans ever introspected why they have brazenly ignored the nexus between Pakistan and the Taliban for over two decades; bombing the Taliban forces in Afghanistan and allowing Pakistan to become a safe haven for them?

The former US President Donald Trump, under pressure from the US public, and the ensuing elections, had started hobnobbing with the Taliban leadership and signed an agreement with them in Doha in February 2020, promising US forces withdrawal. After that, it was well known that American withdrawal was a matter of time. The biggest defeat of the US strategy was seen when the Taliban had wasted little time in taking over sophisticated USD 80 billion aid for Afghan forces and US weapons like fighter planes, M24 sniper rifles, M18 assault weapons, piles of materials like tanks, artillery etc., and Humvees and UD-made military trucks. This had been a big bonanza for the Taliban with six lakh small arms, 76,000 vehicles, more than 200 planes, anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, about three million rounds of ammunition and more than one lakh rockets. All this arsenal is deadly and the Americans gleefully ignored what was going wrong with the Afghan forces and the Ashraf Ghani regime had no plans. His incompetent regime proved out to be a sitting duck for the Taliban.

Ashraf Ghani — a US-settled professional — was prompted to power by the US but was never rooted in the Afghan tribal psyche. He was surrounded by a completely incompetent team of advisors and never had his pulse on people's feelings, Afghan administration in provinces, and the Army. After February 2020 agreement with the Taliban, he should have assessed his weaknesses but he rather allowed things to drift apart. It was good that he fled Kabul to save himself from the gallows. It is said that Afghan army personnel did not use to get their salaries for many months and their commanders were bribed by the Taliban. The Taliban strategically first killed the pilots of the Afghan Air force and crippled the airpower. Pakistan had been guiding and deploying its regular army men to the Taliban and the US knew it very well.

Now the question is what the options for India are? India had so far invested around USD 2 billion dollars in developmental projects like Salman Dam, Delaram-Zaranj High way and Afghanistan Parliament. India had not recognized the previous Taliban regime during the late 1990s. This time around, the Taliban leadership is interested in seeking global recognition; though, one never knows how they will behave ultimately. But Indian leadership should not fall into the trap of these Western countries that harp on democracy but ditch the poor people like the US did. India is having an excellent diplomatic relation with Saudi Arabia which governs its people under Islamic principles of Sharia. If Afghanistan wants to govern itself through the Sharia then we should have no problem with the Taliban leadership in making diplomatic relations, provided they agree not to allow any base for anti-Indian forces and terrorists. It is also a fact that Afghan people never like the Pakistani establishment and, in the long run, it may not be the hanky-dory relations between Pakistan and the Taliban. Many Taliban leaders were jailed by Pakistan. Therefore, Indian national interests are paramount and we need to deal with whosoever controls Kabul as we cannot trust the US too much on this. We need to come out of the seized mindset and bolster our security arrangements in Kashmir. One of the top Taliban leaders, Sher Mohammad Stanikzai, was trained in the Indian Military Academy who could prove a link between the Taliban leadership and Indian diplomats. After all, we are maintaining diplomatic relations with Pakistan which is bleeding us so much for so long then why not deal with any government that controls Afghanistan and chalk out a firm strategy to deal with emerging security threats.

The writer is Chairman of the Centre for Resource Management and Environment. Views expressed are personal.