Undoing of Iran

The thawing of the United States of America's relationships with Cuba and Iran are the previous Barack Obama administration's signature imprints of successful diplomacy that were punctuated with patient creativity, progressive outlook, and commitment, and spared of the spotlight and unnecessary bravado.

With the end of the Cold War and therefore, the support of Soviet Union, Cuba had paled to a fraction of the original threat. However, Iran remained a dangerous flashpoint in the Islamic world, where the US calculus had consistently backfired in countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, and even the 'Arab Spring' had recoiled on American interests. Therefore, the definitive turnaround with Iran was monumental in resolving one essential part of the US interests in the quagmire of the Middle East.

The seeds of anti-US sentiments were sown much earlier with the overwhelming Iranian belief that the CIA had played an infamous role in the 1953 coup to oust the government of the popular Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, in favour of the monarchy. US-Iran relations completely collapsed with the success of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's Iranian Revolution or 'Islamic Revolution' in 1979. It was soon followed by the longest recorded hostage drama of 444 days with 52 US diplomats and citizens. Soon the relationship spiralled even further downwards with the US openly courting Saddam Hussein's Iraq in the bloody Iran-Iraq war that accounted for nearly a million deaths. After that chants like 'Death to America' became the operative expressions in Iran and the term 'Great Satan' was synonymous with the US.

Soon Iran flexed its sectarian muscle with its co-Shia proxies like the Hezbollah in Lebanon and supporting the anti-West, Hafez al-Assad's (father of Bashar al-Assad) minority Shia-Alawite regime in Syria, much to the consternation of the US and its allies.

The 1983 bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut that killed 63 people was claimed by a pro-Iranian group, calling itself the Islamic Jihad Organisation. Successive governments in Tehran and Washington DC could not bridge the divide, and in 2002, US President George W Bush branded Iran and its 'terrorist allies' as the 'an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world'. By then, America's tryst with terror on its soil with '9/11' had happened, and even though the Iranian angularity was far-stretched in the same, Iran was included in the 'axis of terror'. The Iran fixation soon shifted to its nuclear program with the CIA reporting: "Iran remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire technology from abroad - primarily from Russia, China, and North Korea - that can be used to develop weapons of mass destruction. In doing so, Tehran is attempting to develop a domestic capability to produce various types of weapons - chemical, biological, and nuclear - and their delivery systems."

In retaining hostile postures, the establishments in both countries were unnaturally denying the logical opportunity of joining hands in tackling the common enemy in the form of ISIS, which was rewriting the definition, composition, and geography of terror in the Middle East. Iran remained the proverbial punching bag for the US and Iran wholeheartedly reciprocated the sentiment.

In this backdrop of uninterrupted intransigence and extreme mistrust, that former US President Barack Obama alluded to the significance and brilliance of the Iranian rapprochement in his farewell speech when he noted that the US had, "shut down Iran's nuclear weapons program without firing a shot". The landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA), signed on July 14, 2015, in Lausanne, between the P5+1 (US, UK, Germany, Russia, France, and China), European Union and Iran, established the framework for lifting the contentious Iranian sanctions in exchange for limiting the Iranian nuclear program towards peaceful utilisation. With this, Iran entered the global economic highway and was able to partake its blocked assets, ending years of angst.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had hailed the thawing with glowing expressions like 'golden page', 'turning point', and 'historic day'. "We should use this atmosphere and these conditions for the sake of growth and development of our country, and for the sake of the welfare of the people, for the progress of our country, and also for the progress, stability, and security of the region," he noted rather sagely. The tentative steps towards US-Iranian rapprochement evolved with informal understandings taking place in the anti-ISIS efforts in places like Mosul and Raqqa.

However, the advent of Donald Trump Presidency has threatened the applecart with his constant reiteration of undoing the Iran deal as his, 'number one priority'. His Cabinet is potentially rife with anti-Iran hawks like Secretary of Defence-select, Retired General James Mattis, who still call Iran the, "single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East".

Expectedly, this undoing has riled the Iranian establishment. They have flatly said that 'any renegotiation on the deal is out of question'. Perhaps the most prudent and timely warning was given by the former US President Barack Obama who said that "The Iran deal must be measured against the alternatives. A diplomatic resolution that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is far preferable to an unconstrained Iranian nuclear programme or another war in the Middle East".

It is hoped that Donald Trump will tone down the rhetoric and nuance the campaign-mode threats with a more realistic appreciation of the ground situation in the Middle East, which unequivocally suggests enhanced threat to the US interests, lives and assets in the region, should the relationship come undone.

An unnecessary reopening of old wounds that were undergoing a transformative healing process could regress into the familiar territory of bitterness and hostility.

This US-Iranian rupture even goes against the strategic Indian interest. The recent convergence and joint-working of the Indo-Iranian understanding was expressing itself with the development of the Chabahar port, Afghanistan region, and in the commercial domains.

The US could again, arm-twist the Indians in a flashback to the earlier pressures that disallowed progress on the Iran-India gas pipeline. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has not held back on his campaign threats like undoing Obamacare, reinstatement of plans to build the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines, and issuing gag orders on foreign aid groups. However, undoing the spadework done in Iran could be fatal for the region and global security as a whole - it is hoped that Donald Trump resists the political instincts of undoing his predecessor's legacy and tenure.