A vital prerequisite

The United States is pushing for a landmark pact for normalisation of ties between its top Middle East allies and regional powerhouses, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But will it materialise without addressing the Palestinian issue?

Any breakthrough in the US-led negotiations would not only lead to the establishment of diplomatic ties between the Sunni Muslim world’s most influential country and the Jewish state, a former taboo in the Arab world, but also herald a change in the politics of the Middle East.

Top leadership of both the countries and the US have signalled progress in the negotiations. However, a substantial outcome seems very difficult without any tangible resolution of the Palestinian problem. Israel will have to make significant concessions to the Palestinians for any deal to succeed.

There are several other hurdles in the way of an agreement, including the Saudis’ demand for progress in the creation of a Palestine state — a hard sell for Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government, the most religious and nationalist in Israel’s history.

In return for recognising Israel, Saudis are also seeking a defence pact with the US, and want help in building their own civilian nuclear programme and uranium enrichment capability, which has fuelled fears of an arms race with Iran.

Saudi Arabia, a leader of the Arab and Islamic world, that has never recognised the Jewish state since its creation in 1948, cannot think of a deal unless the Palestinian issues are addressed. For the oil-rich kingdom, resolving the Palestinian issues is critical for any normalisation deal with Israel.

“…. What we hear from the Saudis is that if this process is to move forward, the Palestinian piece is going to be very important too,” US Secretary of state Antony Blinken recently said.

“For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part,” Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, said in an interview to Fox News during his recent visit to the US to attend the UN General Assembly.

Talking about the negotiations, he said, “every day we get closer…. We have good negotiations that continue until now…. We hope that we will reach a place, that it will ease the life of the Palestinians, and get Israel as a player in the Middle East.” He did not provide much details about the US-led negotiations. He also declined to specify what exactly the Saudis are seeking for the Palestinians.

On the domestic front, he has to assuage his own people who are historically opposed to Israel and deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

For a deal to succeed, Israel will have to give significant concessions to the Palestinians. However, any Israeli concession is almost certain to be rejected by the ultra-nationalists in Netanyahu’s coalition government, creating a stumbling block in the process.

The ultra-right-wing elements have to choose between annexing further Palestinian territory or accepting peace with the Arab and Islamic world.

Netanyahu, in his address to the UN General Assembly on September 22, said that Israel is “at the cusp” of a historic breakthrough leading to a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.

“There is no question the Abraham Accords heralded the dawn of a new age of peace. But I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough, a historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” he said, adding, “peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia will truly create a new Middle East.”

He also spoke to Fox News where he said that a “window of opportunity” for the deal with the Saudis was in “the next few months.”

“If we don’t achieve it in the next few months, we might delay it by quite a few years,” Netanyahu said.

Israel has grown closer to its neighbours in recent years over their shared concerns about Iran, especially since 2020 agreements brokered by Donald Trump’s administration, known as Abraham Accords.

Abraham Accords are a series of treaties normalising diplomatic relations between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. These four Arab states joined Egypt and Jordan in making peace with Israel. The agreements were called “The Abraham Accords” in honour of Abraham — the Patriarch of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Palestinians strongly condemned the accords labelling them as a betrayal to their quest for peace and a two-state solution.

As the backdoor negotiations continued, Palestinian Authority (PA) conveyed their demands during a meeting with the US Assistant Secretary of State, Barbara Leaf, recently in Amman, which include Israel granting it more control over large parts of the West Bank, a complete cessation of Israeli settlement building and expansion in the West Bank, and resumption of Saudi financial support to the PA, which slowed from 2016 and stopped completely three years ago, to the tune of around USD 200 million

Saudi Arabia sent a delegation led by its first ambassador to Palestine, Naid bin Bandar Al Sudairi, last week, three decades since the 1993 Oslo Accords, to the West Bank to reassure Palestinians that the Kingdom will defend their cause even as it forges closer ties with Israel. The Oslo Accords were meant to create an independent Palestinian state, but years of stalled negotiations and deadly violence have left any peaceful resolution of the Palestinian problem a far cry.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has expressed strong reservations about the Arab countries normalising ties with Israel. “Those who think that peace can prevail in the Middle East without Palestinian people enjoying their full, legitimate national rights would be mistaken,” he told the UN General Assembly.

Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians broke down more than a decade ago, and violence has soared over in the last year and a half, with Israel carrying out frequent military raids in the occupied West Bank and Palestinians attacking Israelis.

Netanyahu’s government has approved thousands of new settlement homes in the West Bank, captured by Israel in the 1967 war and which the Palestinians want for the main part of their future state.

The success of the negotiations would largely depend on Israel’s willingness to accommodate, to a large extent, Saudi Arabia’s demands with regard to the Palestinian issue.

These may include strengthening the Palestinian Authority and expanding its areas of control now in Israeli occupation, limiting or stopping additional Israeli settlement activity, and possibly a commitment from Israel not to annex more territory in the occupied West Bank.

Any deal will be deeply controversial but something is better that nothing if it opens a new chapter between Israel and the Arab world, diplomatic observers said.

They say that the US would have to agree to Saudi Arabia’s demand for a security pact that would guarantee American military intervention in the event of an attack on the Kingdom by Iran, as it reportedly moves ever closer to enriching uranium to nuclear weapons grade.

Despite the China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia last March to resume diplomatic ties after a seven-year pause, their relationship continues to be fraught with mistrust.

President Joe Biden is keen that the two Middle Eastern countries strike a deal, which would be a major foreign policy achievement for him before the end of his term late next year. Whether he succeeds or not only time will tell.

The writer is a former Editor of PTI and served as the West Asia correspondent. Views expressed are personal