Ladakh face-off: Status quo to be restored soon
26 Sept 2014 4:51 AM IST
Amongst informed experts in New Delhi, a view is congealing that the Chinese and the Indian side will de-escalate the ‘jaw-jaw’ situation in eastern Ladakh, at Chumar, and return to ‘status quo ante in 72-96 hours’
The recently retired director general of military operations of the Indian Army, Lt Gen Vinode Bhatia, says that while both sides have maintained high degree of professionalism in the face of provocations from both sides and incremental escalations, they will now ‘move back to where they were earlier.’
Retired brigadier, and current analyst and war-gamer, Arun Sahgal: ‘The prime minister had mentioned it to president Xi Jinping twice. And now behind-the-scenes diplomacy at the national security adviser level is kicking in. The de-escalation will take place in three to four days.’
Sahgal says that this is the new assertive China under Xi who is mixing coercive measures to match diplomacy. But the Chinese know that they cannot push India too much to the US-led Indo-Pacific quadrilateral of Japan, Australia and India.
Bhatia points at the meeting of 27 March, 2013, between then prime minister Manmohan Singh and Xi, on the sidelines of the Durban BRICS summit, the latter had said that boundary issue needs to be resolved at the earliest possible opportunity.
This indicates, no longer are the Chinese toeing the Deng Xiaoping line that let the Sino-Indian relationship grow in other areas even as the border issue takes its own time. By all indications, Xi wants to take the boundary issue ‘bull by the horns’ and settle it during his decadal tenure.
Now that Narendra Modi is still untested in the international waters, he is being driven through a grinder to test his instincts. With a summit coming up in Washington, will he succumb to the American charm offensive as he seemingly did to the Japanese entreaties?
Sahgal’s point about the national security adviser — himself a gung-ho personality — coming into play, the solution to the immediate problem is being firmed up in a manner that does not give a bloody nose to any party.
Meanwhile, this mix of coercion with high diplomacy is now China’s way of settling long festering issues like in the South and East China Sea with Vietnam and ASEAN nations. Only in case of Japan,
the Chinese leave out the diplomacy part for their long memories of ‘humiliation.’
In case of India, China acknowledges the ‘strategic autonomy’ desire of the Indian policymaking elite and wishes to take advantage of that. So, it takes careful measures to no push it out of its orbit and into the hands of the Americans.
This angle adds an additional edge to the Indo-US summit at the end of this month.
The recently retired director general of military operations of the Indian Army, Lt Gen Vinode Bhatia, says that while both sides have maintained high degree of professionalism in the face of provocations from both sides and incremental escalations, they will now ‘move back to where they were earlier.’
Retired brigadier, and current analyst and war-gamer, Arun Sahgal: ‘The prime minister had mentioned it to president Xi Jinping twice. And now behind-the-scenes diplomacy at the national security adviser level is kicking in. The de-escalation will take place in three to four days.’
Sahgal says that this is the new assertive China under Xi who is mixing coercive measures to match diplomacy. But the Chinese know that they cannot push India too much to the US-led Indo-Pacific quadrilateral of Japan, Australia and India.
Bhatia points at the meeting of 27 March, 2013, between then prime minister Manmohan Singh and Xi, on the sidelines of the Durban BRICS summit, the latter had said that boundary issue needs to be resolved at the earliest possible opportunity.
This indicates, no longer are the Chinese toeing the Deng Xiaoping line that let the Sino-Indian relationship grow in other areas even as the border issue takes its own time. By all indications, Xi wants to take the boundary issue ‘bull by the horns’ and settle it during his decadal tenure.
Now that Narendra Modi is still untested in the international waters, he is being driven through a grinder to test his instincts. With a summit coming up in Washington, will he succumb to the American charm offensive as he seemingly did to the Japanese entreaties?
Sahgal’s point about the national security adviser — himself a gung-ho personality — coming into play, the solution to the immediate problem is being firmed up in a manner that does not give a bloody nose to any party.
Meanwhile, this mix of coercion with high diplomacy is now China’s way of settling long festering issues like in the South and East China Sea with Vietnam and ASEAN nations. Only in case of Japan,
the Chinese leave out the diplomacy part for their long memories of ‘humiliation.’
In case of India, China acknowledges the ‘strategic autonomy’ desire of the Indian policymaking elite and wishes to take advantage of that. So, it takes careful measures to no push it out of its orbit and into the hands of the Americans.
This angle adds an additional edge to the Indo-US summit at the end of this month.
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