Isolated Qatar: Middle-East split to affect flights, food and football

Four Arab nations severed diplomatic relations with Qatar on Monday, moving swiftly to isolate the small but influential country after accusing Qatar's rulers of supporting terrorist factions and stoking regional conflicts.

The four countries — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain — released separate and apparently coordinated statements saying they would cut air, sea and land links with Qatar, which hosts a forward base for the US military's Central Command and is home to the widely watched Al Jazeera network. The feud — the most serious in decades among some the region's most key Western allies — has been simmering for years as Qatar increasingly flexed its political muscle across the region, including backing for the Muslim Brotherhood.

The diplomatic break came just weeks after President Trump met with Arab and Muslim leaders in Saudi Arabia and called for a unified front against extremism and regional influence by rival Iran. The visit was hailed by the Trump administration as a success, but analysts in the region said at the time that it seemed likely to aggravate local disputes.

But what might this mean for Qatar's economy and people doing business there?

With a population of about 2.7 million people, this tiny nation on the north-east coast of the Arabian Peninsula is trying to punch above its weight.

People know about it thanks in part to its national airline (Qatar Airways), its international news station (Al Jazeera) and through sport (notably winning the right to host the 2022 football World Cup and being a former sponsor of perhaps the world's most famous club, Barcelona).

And with a distinctive skyline in the capital Doha, it has succeeded in attracting multinationals to open offices there.

Flights: Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways and Dubai's Emirates are suspending all flights to and from Doha, starting from Tuesday morning. Both carriers operate four daily return flights to Doha. Budget carriers FlyDubai and Air Arabia are also cancelling routes to Doha, with other airlines, including Bahrain's Gulf Air and Egyptair expected to follow suit.

It comes after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt all said they would stop flights in and out of Qatar, and close their airspace to the country's airline, Qatar Airways.

And it is Qatar's flag carrier that risks being the biggest loser. Its flights to places like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo will stop. That is dozens of flights a day.

Qatar Airways has already said it is cancelling its services to Saudi. It said: "All customers booked on affected flights to and from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be provided with alternative options, including the option of a full refund on any unused tickets and free rebooking to the nearest alternative Qatar Airways network destination." But being banned from large chunks of airspace in the region would also cause a major problem, forcing it to alter flight paths, inevitably adding time to some flights.

Qatar Airways' growth has come through positioning itself as a hub airline, connecting Asia and Europe via Doha. Egypt said it will suspend air links with Qatar from Tuesday, after it and other Arab states cut diplomatic ties with the Gulf emirate and accused it of supporting extremism.

The decision to "halt all flights between Egypt and Qatar" would take effect from 0400 GMT tomorrow and continue "until further notice", the aviation ministry said.

British Airways is one of a number of European airlines to fly to Doha. It said on Monday that it will "continue to offer a full schedule.

Food: Desert states, by their nature, struggle to grow food. And food security is a particular issue for Qatar given the only way in by land is a single border with Saudi Arabia.

Every day hundreds of lorries cross the border, and food is one of the main supplies. About 40% of Qatar's food is believed to come via this route.

Saudi Arabia has said it will close that border and when the lorries stop, Qatar will become reliant on air and sea freight. "It will immediately cause inflation and that will directly affect normal Qatari people," says Nuseibeh. "If things start costing significantly more, then you're going to see the Qatari people putting increasing political pressure on the ruling family for either a change of leadership or a change of direction." He also points out that many poorer Qataris make daily or weekly trips to Saudi to do their grocery shopping as it is cheaper. Clearly a closed border means this will no longer be possible.

Football: One of the areas that could feel the impact is Qatar's hosting of the World Cup, football's biggest tournament, in five years' time. "This is a massive escalation in pressure on Qatar," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a Gulf analyst with the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston. "I think it will really have an impact if it lasts any time."

Since being controversially chosen by FIFA in 2010 as the host, Qatar has maintained that it is a politically secure nation despite its location in a volatile region.

Doha has also emphasised that the tournament serves the entire Gulf, and not just the tiny gas-rich emirate. But current events may challenge those notions, Ulrichsen said.

"One of its pitches (to secure the World Cup) was that Qatar is one of the most stable countries in the Middle East," he told AFP.

With that potentially called into question — and the fact that there are other countries which could host the event at little notice — organisers may be getting anxious, Ulrichsen said. "Qatar will know that there are alternatives, so they will be looking over their shoulder," he said.

Suggestions have been made previously that the United States, one of the countries that lost the race for the 2022 competition to Qatar, could take over hosting duties if necessary.

People: The move to end ties bans citizens from Saudi, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Yemen from travelling to Qatar, living there or passing through it, according to the Saudi government. People affected have 14 days to leave. Meanwhile Qataris will have the same amount of time to get out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. More significant though would be if Egypt issued a similar ban. According to one recent report about 180,000 Egyptians live in Qatar - with many involved in engineering, medicine and law as well as construction.

A loss of that workforce would pose a problem for both local and international firms operating in the Gulf state.