Turkey local polls: Erdogan’s party eyes recapturing Istanbul

Istanbul:The nationwide municipal votes on March 31 could reinforce President Erdogan’s control after two decades running Turkey, or signal change in the NATO member’s deeply divided political landscape.

According to Reuters, the results are likely to be shaped in part by economic woes driven by rampant inflation, and by Kurdish and Islamist voters weighing up the government’s performance and their hopes for political change.

Opposition hopes of transformation were fuelled by local election results in 2019 when they defeated Erdogan’s AK Party in the main two cities, Istanbul and Ankara, which had been run by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors for 25 years.

But Erdogan bounced back last year, retaining the presidency and winning a parliamentary majority with nationalist allies despite voters’ concerns about a cost-of-living crisis. In response, a broad opposition alliance splintered.

Polls show Imamoglu and the AKP candidate, former minister Murat Kurum, in a close race in Istanbul, a city of 16 million, where Erdogan made his name as mayor in the 1990s. The incumbent opposition mayor leads in the capital Ankara.

Erdogan has been seeking a bigger role for Turkey on the world stage and sought to repair frayed ties with many nations in recent years, including in the Middle East. But during campaigning he said Turks should vote for the AKP to defend against unspecified enemies.

“Those who cannot stomach Turkey’s increasing power in the region and world, or its principled and fair stance, are currently waiting in ambush,” he said on Monday at a rally in the northern province of Tokat.

“In 2019 when Erdogan and AK Party lost Istanbul, it was a big blow and it was a scratch on Erdogan’s reputation. Up until then he was unbeatable, invincible,” said Yetkin Report analyst Murat Yetkin, describing a win in Istanbul as vital for Erdogan.

“If he does so, that means that he will be able to extend and endorse his power to local administrations,” he said, with analysts saying Erdogan may then bid to change the constitution to enable him to stand as president again in 2028.

An Imamoglu victory would however revitalise the opposition, said political analyst Berk Esen of Sabanci University. “If the opposition candidate can win in Istanbul then at least the main opposition party will be able to gain sufficient strength to challenge Erdogan in the coming years,” he said.