Israel, Iran in dangerous game of chicken
Geelong: Israel’s strike on military targets in Iran over the weekend is becoming a more routine occurrence in the decades-long rivalry between the two states.
Israel has conducted low-level or “unofficial” operations in Iran in the past, but since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on southern Israel and subsequent Israeli war in Gaza, tensions between Iran and Israel have spilled over into direct military confrontation for the first time.
While the consequences of this particular strike are not yet clear, it does show that the violence in the Middle East is not winding down any time soon. This is also a clear example of how easily one conflict – in this case, Gaza – can expand into new conflicts with unintended consequences.
But there are other dimensions at play beyond Gaza and the Palestinians. Relations between Israel and post-revolutionary Iran have never been good.
The Iranian government has called for the destruction of Israel, and Israel has used its foreign intelligence service, Mossad, to disrupt Iran’s nuclear programme with assassinations and cyber warfare.
In its most recent direct attack on Iran, Israel struck military targets from the air in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam, causing minor damage to military installations and killing four soldiers. Israel had consulted the US State Department about its plans, but the US was not directly involved in the strikes.
Though Tehran has played down the extent of the damage, the Iranian regime has not ruled out a response, which should keep the region on edge for weeks to come. In fact, some hardliners in the Iranian parliament say the strike crossed a red line and a response is necessary.
Who’s to blame here?
Answering the question of “who started it?” in this conflict is not that simple.
If you were to ask the Iranians, they would say the first escalation came in early April when
Israel struck an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing two senior Iranian generals, among others.
If you were to ask the Israelis, they would say that attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel over the past year are effectively Iran
throwing the first stone, as Hezbollah is a militant proxy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran has responded to Israeli strikes on its territory twice with barrages of rockets and explosive drones – once in retaliation for the consulate strike and again in early October after Ismail Haniyeh, one of the leaders of Hamas, was killed by a strike in Tehran. Israel’s latest airstrike was in direct response to Iran’s early October retaliation.
US President Joe Biden said after the latest Israeli attack, “I hope this is the end” – an effort to urge both parties to halt their escalations. But unfortunately it is not his call to make.
There is a reason why direct military strikes between nations are rare, even between sworn enemies.
When attacking another state, it is difficult to know exactly how they will respond, though a retaliatory strike is almost often expected.
This is because defence forces are not just used for fighting and winning wars – they are also vital to deterring them.
When a fighting force is attacked, it’s important for it to strike back to maintain the perception it can deter future attacks and make a display of its capabilities.
