For Putin, winning reelection could be easier than resolving many challenges facing Russia

Moscow: For President Vladimir Putin, winning reelection will probably be the easy part. His sweeping grip on Russia’s political scene has virtually assured him another six-year term that would extend his two dozen years in power.

More daunting will be the thorny challenges that lie ahead. The stalemated war in Ukraine, unyielding Western pressure that compounds Russia’s economic problems, and intensifying infighting among the ruling elite will loom over Putin’s next term and erode his pledges of stability.

What Putin expected to be a quick campaign in 2022 to establish Kremlin control over its neighbour has turned into a grinding war of attrition that has incurred massive personnel losses and drained Russia’s resources.

While Russia has prevented Ukraine’s army from making any significant gains during its summer counteroffensive, the Kremlin doesn’t have enough manpower and equipment to mount any major campaigns of its own.

The resulting stalemate sets the stage for months of positional fighting during the winter, when the weather hampers any large moves and likely will make both sides focus on protecting their gains.

Putin expects that continuing warfare will gradually exhaust Ukrainian resources and undermine

Western support for Kyiv, but a protracted conflict also exacerbates Russia’s economic woes, deepens social problems and fuels divisions within the ruling elite.

Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center pointed to a widening gap between technocrats holding top administrative

jobs and hard-liners who are eager to extend their sway and push an even more hawkish course.

“The longer uncertainty remains around the outcome of the war, the louder the voices of the revisionists will grow,” Stanovaya wrote in an analysis.

“Instability, military setbacks, escalation, and Russia’s deteriorating position in the war all serve to empower the

revisionists and undermine the administrators.”

Despite Moscow’s hopes that Western assistance for Ukraine will dwindle amid growing fatigue with the war and election campaigns in the U.S. and other Western countries, Washington and its allies have vowed to continue supporting Kyiv for as a long as necessary.

Both the US and the European Union also pledge that the Israel-Hamas war will not distract them from helping Ukraine. agencies