China’s demographic woes mount as population declines by 2.08 mn in 2023

China’s population dipped for the second straight year in 2023, marking a historic decline and handing the title of “most populous nation” to India. Official data released on Wednesday showed a decrease of 2.08 million people, bringing the total population to 1.4097 billion.

China’s population reported its first decline in six decades in 2022 after the birth rate hit a new low resulting in decades of the one-child policy pursued vigorously by the ruling Communist Party of China to control the population growth with experts predicting a steeper decline in the coming years in the world’s second-largest economy.

According to the United Nations Population Fund data, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous nation with 142.86 crore people last year.

Last year 9.02 million babies were born in China, down by 5.6 per cent from 9.56 million in 2022 amid the plummeting interest in couples having children, according to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The falling number of new babies resulted in the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people, compared with 6.77 in 2022.

China implemented a third-child policy in May of 2021 and rolled out a series of stimulus measures to boost population growth. Several cities, provinces and regions across the country have rolled out incentive policies such as issuing subsidies to families with a second or third child.

China’s population growth has been slowing since 2016 as the high cost of raising children, a greater pursuit of individualism and a diversified lifestyle dampen enthusiasm to start a family.

The country’s zero-Covid policies, implemented between 2020 and late 2022, are also perceived to have contributed to the slide.

Last year, 11.1 million people also died, pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people pushing the national death rate to 7.87 per 1,000 people, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported.

Researchers warned that the Chinese economy which in the past significantly benefited from a demographic dividend, will have to tackle challenges including fewer working-age people, weaker spending power and a strained social security system as its population ages further.

Professor Peng Xizhe from Fudan University’s Centre for Population and Development Policy Studies warns of a further decline in the coming years. “It’s almost certain the population will continue shrinking,” he told the South China Morning Post. While a slight rebound in births is possible as the pandemic subsides and pro-natalist policies take effect, he doesn’t expect annual births to surpass 10 million. Additionally, he anticipates rising deaths as the population ages, exceeding 10 million annually within the near future.

He Dan, director of China Population and Development Research Centre, believes supportive policies can reverse the downward trend in births and marriages. He suggests implementing a birth guarantee system with subsidies for newborn care, establishing an “entire lifecycle of family services support

system,” and providing comprehensive support for reproductive health, marriage, relationships, and childcare.