Brazil's Lula becomes double-edged sword for the left

Rio De Janeiro: The good news for Brazil's left ahead of October presidential elections is that its biggest candidate, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, easily leads the polls. The bad news? He's in prison.

This bizarre situation leaves the once mighty Workers' Party in a state of turmoil over how to approach the October 7 vote.

A Datafolha poll on Wednesday confirmed that Lula's popularity is in no danger of deflating as the election nears. In fact it has risen from 30 to 39 percent since June, 20 points clear of the nearest rival, right-winger Jair Bolsonaro.

"The people want Lula," the Workers' Party, which he founded and brought to power in his 2003-2010 presidencies, proclaimed.

Do they really, though? Polling numbers are not quite as clear on closer inspection.

Lula gets much of his backing from so-called spontaneous support, which reaches 20 percent of those polled by Datafolha. Bolsonaro got 15 percent spontaneous support, while none of the other candidates got more than 2 per cent.

Lula, who has been a major political figure in Brazil for decades, as well as the subject of a long running corruption saga, is already well known, while many of the others running have only just started their electoral campaigns.

Bolsonaro, notorious for his statements on women, gays and approval of Brazil's 1964-85 dictatorship, has milked the old showbiz maxim of there being no such thing as bad publicity.

Crucially, 41 percent told Datafolha they were undecided. "Lula is growing thanks to his brand... (and) because most of the other candidates are not known," said Jason Vieira, from Infinity Assets consultancy.