Absent Putin, Ukraine war cast long shadow over G20 Summit

Melbourne: The leaders of Russia and China are skipping the G20 summit, but their absence and rifts over the Ukraine war will have a big influence on the proceedings.

Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t be at the G20 Leaders’ Summit, but he and the Russia-Ukraine war are likely to have a bigger effect on outcomes than even the lack of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Days before world leaders prepared to gather in New Delhi for the summit September 9-10, news emerged that China’s leader had decided not to attend. Xi’s absence will undoubtedly stifle progress on the many issues plaguing the global economy.

However, it’s Putin and the war in Ukraine that is likely to dominate proceedings and hamper progress on urgent matters before the G20.

With Russia a member, this is not surprising.

But the G20’s make-up consisting of Western states and leading nations from the Global South has made it even more difficult for the organisation to function effectively. The G20 is much more than just an annual two-day Leaders’ Summit.

Most of its work happens in the background, through networks of technocrats and policymakers, who can find ways to resolve problems, even when relations between their leaders deteriorate.

Beside the issue of an ongoing conflict, the in’ tray is full this year.

Global inflation remains high, and growth is slowing and below historical trends. China is experiencing its own economic challenges of slowing growth, deflation and a housing market crisis, which could have significant knock-on effects for the rest of the world.

Many economies are struggling with debt. Nearly half of the world’s developing countries need urgent financial assistance as the financial consequences of the pandemic have finally caught up with them.

All this is before considering long-term issues like climate change or sustainable development. Progress on both fronts is falling further behind schedule.

But this is exactly why the G20 was created. It brings together the world’s 20 largest economies, which account for 85 per cent of global GDP, 75 per cent of global trade and two-thirds of the world’s population. To the extent that the world has a government, the G20 is it.

On the issue of Russia and Ukraine, there are three distinct factions within the G20.

There is Russia, which has rejected the validity of discussing the war at the G20, arguing that as an economic body it has no business considering security matters.

Increasingly, as the war has dragged on, this has been China’s position, too, as it draws closer to Russia.