What happens next with Brexit vote?

The results of the referendum, which were confirmed as 51.9 per cent in favour of Brexit and 48.1 per cent against on Friday, are not legally binding on the UK government. However, the ruling Conservative party had promised the referendum as part of its manifesto pledge in the 2015 General Election and British Prime Minister David Cameron had repeatedly confirmed that the will of the people will be respected.

He reiterated that view in his resignation speech outside Downing Street this morning: “The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected.” At a practical level, what this means is he has effectively kick-started a time-line for his own exit from Downing Street, expected by October, when a new Prime Minister will now have to take the Brexit mandate forward.

The most likely candidate is believed to be former London mayor Boris Johnson, who was the star campaigner for Vote Leave and often touted as Cameron’s successor. Cameron will chair a Cabinet meeting on Monday and soon after travel to Brussels to inform the European Council of Britain’s referendum next Tuesday and Wednesday.

However, the road ahead is anything but clear-cut, with a number of factors coming into play. The referendum has effectively triggered the process of a massive renegotiation process during which trade issues will be at the heart of talks to thrash out exactly how Britain’s relationship with the EU will work in future - negotiations that many expect will last for years. Quitting the EU could cost Britain access to the EU’s trade barrier-free single market and means it must seek new trade accords with countries around the world.

The EU, taken as a whole, is the UK’s major trading partner, accounting for 44 per cent of exports and 53 per cent of imports of goods and services in 2015. Brexit has often been referred to by the British media as a difficult divorce after the break-up of a marriage of convenience.

Officially, the process involves invoking Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty, which deals with the process of exit for any member country. 

This will be the first time this article will be used, and indeed, tested as the only other country to exit the EU was Greenland back in 1982, when the EU was known as the European Economic Community (EEC). Article 50 has provision for a two-year timeframe for negotiations, with scope to extend the negotiation period if all parties involved agree.

The year 2020 has been suggested by some experts as a potential timeline, when the next UK General Election is scheduled to take place.  As Cameron stressed, “there will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold”. 

However, his resignation and the need for a new Prime Minister to take charge of the negotiations has added a bigger question mark to the process ahead. The European Commission has already indicated that it is not willing to wait for Britain to settle its own internal party politics to start the negotiation process. In the interests of the EU’s own future, European leaders are keen to conclude Brexit proceedings as quickly as possible to avert any further divisive referendums among its 27 other member-countries.

France has already expressed some murmurings of its own referendum. “The UK should invoke Article 50 as soon as possible, however painful that process may be,” said Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, the executive branch of the EU.