Tryst with the Clock

For those who construe that the ongoing crisis in Israel, Iran and Lebanon is superficial and rooted in a lust for quick and immediate gains, think again. As is wont in that part of the Middle-East, it is a land of rich cultural and religious diversity, its history intertwined with religious sects, geography and political affiliations. Paradoxically, it is this fruitful and enviable upbringing of an impressionable region by less than ideal parents that has led to the birth of the ongoing crises. Leading the charge in this wrecking of a beautiful swathe is geography and strategic location; Lebanon, nestled between Israel, Syria, and the Mediterranean Sea, inadvertently finds itself a focal point for regional powers vying for influence.

Lebanon’s modern history is steeped in cycles of conflict, with the Civil War that raged for 15 years till 1990 being particularly devastating. This was when militias aligned along religious and ideological lines fighting for control, and foreign powers – including Israel, Syria and Iran – exposed their own ambitions for the first time by taking sides in the conflict. A significant offspring of this period was Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim militant organization backed by Iran. Hezbollah’s rise in Lebanon’s political and military spheres is today a contributing factor in its relationship with Israel.

The end of the Civil War brought fragile peace to Lebanon, but the country was riven on sectarian lines. The Taif Agreement of 1989 brought relief and peace, ending the war and rewriting the power-sharing chapter, but it failed to resolve deep-seated tensions. Lebanon’s political system, characterized by instability, corruption and the influence of external powers, notably Iran, continued to support Hezbollah militarily and financially. This is what has drawn Lebanon into the orbit of regional conflicts, especially the struggle between Israel and Iran.

Triggering the current crisis

The Israel-Iran-Lebanon triangle is a microcosm of geopolitical rivalries in the Middle-East, with Israel’s fundamental fear of Iranian influence encroaching on its northern border via Hezbollah being the nub of the conflict. Iran’s support for Hezbollah, including financial aid, weapons and training, is seen by Israel as a direct threat to its security. For Iran, Hezbollah is a means to project power across the region and challenge Israel, as well as swat US influence.

Recent times have seen tensions escalate, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and Syria, targeting arms depots, missile-production facilities and key Hezbollah figures. The strikes are part of Israel’s campaign to weaken Hezbollah and curb Iran’s military entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon. However, these have provoked retaliation from Hezbollah, leading to skirmishes along the Israel-Lebanon border. A particularly volatile moment occurred in end-2023, when Israeli forces struck a Hezbollah convoy in Syria, killing senior operatives. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel, killing civilians and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. Israel, no fledgling and led by a hawkish Prime Minister, responded with more airstrikes, all but catalysing a full-fledged war.

That sent Iran scurrying to shore up Hezbollah’s military repertory, supplying it with advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles that could hit targets deep inside Israel. This alarmed Israeli officials, who now view Hezbollah’s arsenal as a serious threat. Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defence system has been able to intercept many rockets, but there is concern that Hezbollah’s evolving capabilities could overwhelm Israeli defences in future standoffs.

Lebanon finds itself caught in the middle, with its fragile political system, weakened by economic collapse and widespread corruption, just not equipped to handle another war. It is still reeling from the explosion at Beirut Port in 2020, which all but pulverised the Capital and deepened the economic crisis. Many in Lebanon are frustrated with Hezbollah’s role in provoking Israel, but the group continues to be a force to reckon with in Lebanon’s politics, commanding significant support among the Shia population.

Joe & Jane bear the brunt

At the ground level, though, life is unpredictable and in a state of unease, especially in southern Lebanon and villages near the Israeli border. Sure, residents are living their daily lives, but there is always fear that their homes could at any time become a battlefield, even a death-bed. The sound of Israeli drones buzzing overhead is a familiar, unsettling reminder that peace is tenuous.

Fatima, a mother of three from a village in southern Lebanon, recalls a night in 2023 when Israeli jets bombed a Hezbollah outpost near her home. “The explosions were so close that we thought the house would collapse,” she recalls. “My children were terrified; we spent the entire night in the basement, praying for it to stop.”

Life is no different across the border, for Israelis living in the northern extremes. Schools have bomb shelters and families are accustomed to running for safety when Hezbollah launches rocket attacks. A father describes his helplessness when air-raid sirens go off: “We try to keep life normal for the kids, but it’s hard. We are always on edge, waiting for the next rocket.”

Both sides are paying a heavy price in a conflict that shows no signs of abating. In Lebanon, the economy has collapsed, with inflation skyrocketing and basic goods becoming scarce. Citizens blame politicians, including Hezbollah, for the dire situation. Yet, despite the overtly-visible suffering, there is no clear path to peace. The human toll is staggering too. Thousands of civilians have been killed or displaced in the flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah. The psychological impact of living in a warzone is immense, particularly for children who grow up with violence being a constant threat. The trauma of past conflicts, such as the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, lingers on in the memory of both Lebanese and Israelis, making a future free from fear hard to comprehend.

Israel could have done better

Despite its military might and advanced intelligence capabilities, Israel has made strategic and tactical mistakes in dealings with Hezbollah and Iran. A glaring error was Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, which, while intended to root out Palestinian militants, only led to the rise of Hezbollah. Israeli forces remained in Lebanon until 2000, and this occupation fuelled anti-Israeli sentiment among the Shias, who turned to Hezbollah for protection and leadership.

Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency and regarded as one of the most effective in the world, also slipped up, especially in its targeted killings of Iranian and Hezbollah figures. These assassinations, such as the killing of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, have been hailed as tactical victories, but they have had unintended consequences. The assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, for one, was a blow to Iran’s military operations, but also intensified its resolve to retaliate. Soleimani was a key architect of Iran’s proxy wars, including its support for Hezbollah, and his death led to a more aggressive Iranian stance. Mossad’s involvement in these killings has clearly backfired.

The recent killings of Hezbollah and Iranian leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah, his son-in-law and some others in Israeli airstrikes have also been criticized. While Israel may rightly claim to have succeeded in degrading Hezbollah’s infrastructure, the group is emerging from the conflict politically stronger, as it has done on previous occasions.

The targeted killing of key Iranian leaders has been widely condemned by international observers as “extrajudicial killings that violate international law”. These assassinations, while justified by Israel and the United States as necessary to prevent future attacks, have also been seen as acts of aggression that destabilize the region. The legality of targeted killings has been questioned by legal specialists and human rights organizations, many arguing that these violate international norms and exacerbate the cycle of violence in the region.

Can peace be in the offing?

Achieving regional concord will require more than precision military strikes and intelligence operations. It needs diplomacy, the building of trust and the willingness of all concerned parties to negotiate. For Lebanon, peace is crucial for the country’s survival, the economy already being in shambles and the people weary of conflict.

A lasting peace agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran must address the root causes of the conflict – territorial disputes, religious tensions and the influence of external powers. Iran must scale back its support for Hezbollah if meaningful negotiations with Israel are to occur. Likewise, Israel must commit to halting military operations in Lebanon and Syria. Efforts by the international community, including the United Nations and major world powers, must focus on bringing everyone to the negotiating table. The withdrawal of foreign powers, such as Iran and the United States, from the region’s internal conflicts would also be essential for reducing tensions.

Roadblocks & hurdles abound

Despite the efforts of those who hope for peace, roadblocks and impediments remain. Hezbollah, with its deep-rooted presence in Lebanon, is unlikely to disarm voluntarily. Its military capabilities are seen as a deterrent against Israeli aggression, and Iran views Hezbollah as an essential part of its strategy to maintain influence in the Middle East.

For Israel, the fear of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal means that military strikes will continue, perpetuating a cycle of violence. Additionally, internal political dynamics in both Israel and Lebanon complicate the peace process. Hard-line factions on both sides, including Israeli settler movements and Hezbollah militants, oppose concessions and negotiations. The US’ role in the region, given its alliance with Israel and adversarial stance towards Iran, also complicates things. As long as foreign powers use Lebanon as a battlefield for their proxy wars, the chances for peace are slim.

The ongoing conflict draws eerie parallels to past wars in the Middle-East, where foreign intervention and religious divisions often prolonged bloodshed. The Lebanese Civil War, for example, shows how religious and political factions can turn a country into a battleground for external powers. Proxy wars between Israel and Iran in Lebanon are reminiscent of the Cold War, where smaller nations were caught between larger, more powerful rivals.

A historical lesson that stands out is that military might alone cannot resolve well-entrenched ideological and religious conflicts. Just as the Cold War ended not with a decisive battle, but with diplomatic negotiations and economic pressure, so too must the Israel-Iran-Lebanon conflict, through diplomatic channels. Any hope for lasting peace lies not in further escalation, but in learning from history and recognizing the importance of dialogue and compromise.

As the people of Israel, Iran, and Lebanon continue to suffer under the weight of this long-standing conflict, it is clear that military solutions can only fan more violence. What is needed is a commitment to peace from all sides, backed by international support. Only then can the grim cycle of war be broken, and an era of peace begin taking root.