Signed and sealed

The phenomenal performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in assembly elections has proved all political pundits wrong. The message decoded from the poll verdict is loud and clear that "Modi magic" is going to stay for a long time to keep BJP's winning game on.

Besides "Modi Magic", Yogi Adityanath's "Bulldozer Baba" image also paid dividends for the party. Crackdown on mafia and extra-judicial killings worked in winning the hearts of women voters and "suppressed" electorates belonging to weaker sections of society.

No doubt, the BJP has won four of the five states due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policies and his party's "double engine" electoral plant, amid criticism of mishandling the pandemic and job losses, especially in the main battleground of Uttar Pradesh where Yogi Adityanath was seeking a second term. The Modi-Yogi duo has created a history by retaining UP for the second time in a row – a "mission impossible" that had earlier never been accomplished by any of the ruling parties.

Many may defer, but the reality behind BJP's stellar performance in assembly elections is the effect of the "Modi magic" that pulled the party from imminent defeat to the power seat in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa.

The victory of the BJP in four states has smoothened its journey for the Presidential elections, due in July this year, and the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections.

Similarly, the unprecedented victory of a relatively newer Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab has legitimised the 'Kejriwal Model' of development as another 'tested' alternative for the people. Being a regional party, APP has created a history of having a government in two states – Delhi and Punjab. Earlier, only AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) had the record of ruling two states while being a regional satrap. AAP has won 92 out of 117 seats in the Punjab assembly elections.

Despite having several limitations because of being a regional party, the victory of AAP in Punjab is very big. TMC is also making an effort to contest the elections in Tripura, which will go to the polls in a year or so. All regional parties make their efforts to expand their base beyond their own state, but most of the time they have failed.

The regional parties like the BSP, SP, Shiv Sena, RJD, JD(U), NCP, etc. have also contested elections in so many states, but they couldn't succeed. In 2022, the JDU won six seats in Manipur, which is seen as a big win for the party.

The interesting takeaway from the poll verdict is the rise of Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) 2.0. The SP, under the leadership of Akhilesh, managed to win 111 seats alone by securing 32 per cent vote share in his favour, which is just nine per cent less than the BJP's vote share of 41 per cent. It's a huge gain for the SP in comparison to the 2017 assembly elections when the party had won just 47 seats, fetching a vote share of a mere 22 per cent.

As AAP scripted a story of top gainer in the assembly elections, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) faced the biggest loss, as its vote share drastically fell to 12 per cent from 22 per cent in 2017. The party, which is led by Dalit leader Mayawati, faced the worst-ever performance in 2022 by winning just one seat. It's the same BSP that had won Uttar Pradesh assembly polls with a majority in 2007. This year's poll results show that the BSP might have lost its hold on its key vote-bank of Jatavs, who have gone to the BJP, like many other Dalit castes.

The 2022 assembly polls also proved a dead-end for all those who were predicting a brighter outcome for the Congress, as the country's oldest party faced the biggest jolt and failed to make a mark in any of the five states. The sad part of the story is that the party's 'trump card' Priyanka Gandhi Vadra failed in translating huge crowds into votes. The Grand Old Party has been reduced to just two seats, with merely 2.34 per cent vote share in UP. In 2017, the party had won seven seats with a 6.25 per cent vote share.

The mammoth victory of the BJP in UP has not only broken the illusion of caste-based politics but has also put aside the side-effects of anti-incumbency against a ruling party. The BJP has won 255 seats alone and its ally Apna Dal got 12 seats and Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) won six seats. Total seats won by the BJP-led alliance stood at 273. The BJP has lost 57 seats in comparison to 2017 assembly elections when it had won 312 seats alone. There are a total of 403 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has won 48 seats in comparison to 57 seats in 2017, while it won 32 seats in Manipur and 20 seats in Goa. The BJP has lost nine seats in the hilly state, while the party has gained 11 seats in Manipur and seven seats in Goa.

The winning stroke for the BJP in the assembly elections was its populist welfare schemes such as free gas connection, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna, Kisan Samman Nidhi, Rs 5-lakh insurance cover under Ayushman Bharat Scheme, distribution of free ration for the last two years etc. The "beneficiary" category of voters deflated the caste agenda of the Samajwadi Party, as 'beneficiaries' of every caste gained from the government schemes.

The BJP's focus on Mathura paid dividends as the party won all seats there. Mathura — the birthplace of Lord Krishna — once again reposed its trust in the BJP and the party performed even better than in the 2017 assembly elections. The BJP managed to win all the five assembly seats of Mathura, including Mathura, Chhata, Baldev, Mant, and Goverdhan.

Despite so many cases of rape, murder and police 'brutality', the BJP got the support of women voters – belonging to each section of society.

It was also visible during the political rallies that when PM Modi was spelling out his achievements by naming the benefits of his welfare scheme, the opposition party — mainly the Samajwadi Party — somehow failed to set a counter-narrative against the BJP. The SP's poll campaign was more or less focused on inflation, unemployment, plight of farmers, etc. which really failed in countering the BJP's poll planks and instilling confidence among voters that the SP would also maintain a very robust law and order in the state.

The poll results also invalidated the argument that farmers were against the BJP, as the saffron party has won 31 out of 55 seats in Western UP while registering a clean sweep in Aligarh-Agra by winning 45 out of 58 seats. The BJP trounced in Azamgarh and Ghazipur regions. The party failed to open its account in Ghazipur. The reason for BJP's poor performance in the region is the exit of OP Rajbhar from the NDA alliance.

Most of the exit polls had predicted a clear victory for the incumbent BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur, while the pollsters had predicted an edge in Uttarakhand and a close fight in Goa.

Going by the exit poll predictions, Congress was a little hopeful of getting back Punjab and having a neck-to-neck fight in Goa, apart from garnering support in Uttarakhand. But it didn't happen and BJP successfully kept Congress out of power in all the states.

NATIONAL STAGE FOR KEJRIWAL

The AAP's emergence in Punjab with a splendid performance is going to create ripples that could lead to realignments at the national level too. Political observers have opined that AAP Convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal would be a prospective national leader against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The AAP's mammoth victory in Punjab has created a significant space for Kejriwal at the national level.

The winning mantra of Kejriwal in the border state, despite all odds, is his nature of politics which mainly relies on providing "solutions" to the common man's day-to-day struggles of living — ranging from paying electricity bills to hospital and school expenses — apart from honest governance.

Kejriwal successfully placed his 'Delhi model' of development in Punjab to build trust and believability among the voters. The AAP showcased its development model of better health, robust education infrastructure, electricity, free bus rides among the voters of Punjab.

The spectacular win in Punjab could make Kejriwal move his focus to Gujarat and Himachal which are going for polls later this year. AAP had already made considerable gains in the civic elections in Gandhinagar and Surat last year.

RISE OF SAMAJWADI PARTY 2.0

The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections has not surprised many, but the rise of Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party (SP) 2.0 must have given jitters to many, including the BJP.

Despite several important issues such as rising inflation, unemployment, the plight of farmers, which were aggressively raised by Akhilesh Yadav in his political rallies, the defeat of SP tells the story of BJP's mastery in social engineering as SP's all efforts to push its vote share above 40 per cent have not worked well.

The performance of the SP in the 2022 assembly elections is much better than in 2017 when the SP had forged a pre-poll alliance with Congress and RLD. In the 2017 elections, the SP had got just 22 per cent votes, while its ally Congress managed to get 6.25 per cent votes. In total, the SP-Congress alliance got 28 per cent votes. The SP had won 47 seats and Congress could get just seven seats.

In contrast to 2017 assembly election results, SP has won 111 seats alone by securing 32 per cent vote share, while its ally RLD has won eight seats by fetching three per cent vote share and OP Rajbhar's party Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party won six seats by securing 1.36 per cent vote share. The SP-led alliance has got 36 per cent of the total vote share, which is around five per cent less than the total vote share of BJP's 41.4 per cent.

The next challenge for Akhilesh would be to keep his core voters – Yadav and Muslims — intact as the ruling party would now redouble its efforts to deliver benefits to non-Yadav OBCs to win them back.

Views expressed are personal