‘History is in your hands’

After three weeks of pained debates in the media and within the Biden administration itself, the 61 percent of Americans who wanted Joe Biden to step aside have had their wish granted.

Only a few minutes after announcing he would no longer be seeking re-election, Biden made clear he endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris to succeed him while major Democratic Party stalwarts — including the Congressional Black Caucus as well as Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama — followed suit. Harris has now secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become the party’s presidential nominee. It removes age as an issue for them and potentially refocuses the campaign, with Harris the standard bearer.

She is within striking distance of Trump in national polls and involves the least disruptive transition to the Democrat campaign. Trump may seek to ridicule ‘laughing’ Kamala but that could backfire with voters, particularly women. She will need a running mate who can appeal in the swing states and has a compelling personal story, injecting new energy into the campaign.

Undoubtedly, Trump has momentum. He has harnessed the anger of those Americans who feel like outsiders in their own country, threatened by rapid change, identity politics and left behind by the widening of income and wealth inequalities.

The Democrats’ best strategy now is to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s negatives, which they define as the chaos of his first term and threat to American institutions. The departure of President Biden provides that opportunity.

A spate of opinion polls carried out since Biden abandoned his presidential campaign last Sunday show Vice-President Harris closing the gap on Trump but still narrowly trailing in a tight race.

While still often narrowly behind, the ability of Harris to gain ground on her Republican opponent suggests her elevation to the top of the ticket has reset the presidential race, pollsters say, especially after weeks of plummeting Democratic poll numbers under Biden.

Fresh surveys carried out in battleground states show Trump ahead mostly within error margins in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, while one survey showed the two are tied in Wisconsin at 47 per cent apiece.

While still trailing, the trend represents momentum for Harris, who has started her campaign with a rush of enthusiasm this week after being endorsed by most leading Democratic figures.

Democrats have repeatedly told voters this year that democracy is on the ballot, citing Trump’s pledge to be a “dictator” on the first day of his term if elected, the threats to electoral norms posed by the conservative Project 2025 plan and a recent Supreme Court ruling largely immunising ex-Presidents from criminal accountability.

Delegates juxtapose those concerns against the small-D democratic matter of Harris’ accession to potential leadership without facing a competitive primary.

While addressing the nation for the first time after ending his re-election bid, Biden said “saving democracy is more important than any title”. In his 11-minute speech, the 81-year-old President insisted that it was time to “pass the torch” to a new generation of leaders.

The powerful speech is believed to have marked the beginning of the closing chapter of Biden’s presidency and half-century-long career in public service. In the address, Biden acknowledged that uniting the party required “sacrificing personal ambition”.

“I revere this office. But I love my country more,” the President said in his speech from the Oval Office earlier this week. “It’s been the honour of my life to serve as your president. But in the defence of democracy, which is at stake, I think it’s more important than any title. I draw strength and I find joy in working for the American people,” he added.

While Biden did not mention former US President Donald Trump’s name, he attempted to draw a clear contrast with the former President and alluded to the fact that the latter claimed victory in the election he didn’t win. “The great thing about America is, here, kings and dictators do not rule,” Biden said. “The people do. History is in your hands, the idea of America lies in your hands.”

The speech marked his first extensive remark on the matter ever since his announcement of not running for the second term. Throughout his presidency and during the re-election campaign, there have been growing concerns about Biden’s age and his mental acuity.

Several Democratic Party members suggested that Biden should not run for the presidency again after his deplorable performance against Trump in the first presidential debate of this year. Biden announced his decision to end the campaign just days after he was diagnosed with COVID-19.

From the future of reproductive rights to the chances of meaningful action on climate change, from the strength of US support for Ukraine in its war with Russia to the fate of democracy in America itself, existential issues are set to come to the fore.

More than 30 years later, under Biden, the post-Covid recovery seemed on track. Unemployment is low, and the Dow is at all-time highs. That should bode well but the key question is whether enough Americans think the economy is strong, or think it is working for them in particular. It seems many do not. Cost-of-living concerns dominate public polling, inflation remains high. Republican threats to social security and Medicare might offset such worries.

One of the Biden administration’s biggest priorities has been reining in sky-high prices in the aftermath of the pandemic. Harris has been a staunch supporter of the President’s efforts to reduce inflation and has said bringing down the price of petrol and other daily costs was a “top priority”.

Harris has also championed Biden’s landmark legislation to boost infrastructure investment and accelerate the pivot to clean energy.

As Vice-President, she has also focused her efforts on the so-called “care economy”, including expanding access to affordable childcare and aid to senior citizens.

Continuing struggles on Capitol Hill over immigration, and Republicans’ usual focus on crime in major cities, show traditional race-inflected battles will play their customary role on the campaign trail, particularly as Trump uses extremist “blood and soil” rhetoric in front of eager crowds. On the Democratic side, meanwhile, a distinctly worrying sign: Black and Hispanic support for Harris is no longer such a sure thing.

High-ranking Democrats are clear: the party will focus on Republican attacks on abortion rights, from the Dobbs v Jackson Supreme Court ruling that struck down Roe v Wade last year to the forthcoming mifepristone case, draconian bans in Republican states and candidates’ support for such bans.

For Democrats, it makes tactical sense: the threat to women’s reproductive rights is a rare issue on which the party polls very strongly and has clearly fuelled a series of electoral wins, even in conservative states, since Dobbs was handed down.

Trump, however, clearly also recognises the potency of the issue – while trying to dodge responsibility for appointing three justices who voted to strike down Roe. Haley and DeSantis have tried to duck questions about their records and plans on abortion.

The Israel-Gaza war presents a fiendish proposition for Harris: how to satisfy or merely mollify both the Israel lobby and large sections of his own party, particularly the left and the young more sympathetic to the Palestinians.

Proliferating protests against Israel’s pounding of Gaza and the West Bank show the danger of coming unglued from the base.

Harris continues to lead a global coalition in support of Ukraine in its fight against Russia but further US funding is held up by Republicans seeking draconian immigration reform, some keen to abandon Kyiv altogether.

Harris has supported Biden but occasionally sought to stake out her own positions. As Vice-President, she has increasingly represented the US and Biden at major meetings of world leaders, including the Munich Security Conference and, more recently, the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland.

“To everyone who has been calling for a ceasefire, and to everyone who yearns for peace, I see you and I hear you,” she had said. “Let’s get the deal done.”

Throw in the lasting effects of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan (teed up by Trump), questions about what the US should do should China attack Taiwan, and the threat Trump poses to US membership of NATO, and heavy fire on foreign policy is guaranteed throughout the election year.

If Trump threatens US democracy, the climate crisis threatens the US itself. From forest fires to hurricanes and catastrophic floods, it is clear climate change is real. Public polling reflects this: 70 per cent of Americans – strikingly, including 50 per cent of Republicans — want meaningful action. But that isn’t reflected in Republican campaigning. Trump says he doesn’t believe human activity contributes to climate change, nor that climate change is making extreme weather worse, and is opposed to efforts to boost clean energy. Haley does believe humans are causing climate change and making weather worse but worked for Trump as the UN ambassador when the US pulled out of the Paris climate deal and opposed clean energy incentives. DeSantis is closer to Trump — and wants to end regulation of emissions.

Harris had a long career as a prosecutor before she became a Senator. Her record as a “tough on crime” public attorney attracted the ire of some progressive activists when she first ran for President in 2020.

But her positions on law and order, policing and issues relating to racial justice appear to have shifted over time, and she has moved to the left, in line with many in the Democratic Party, in recent years.

There is an old saying in Washington that a presidential candidate will never have a better day than the one that follows their announcement. The maxim usually applies to the heady first hours of primary campaigns. But Harris, 59, is now playing in the big leagues.

Harris must sustain the sudden new momentum in a party that until Sunday believed it was heading to defeat as lawmaker after lawmaker deserted the President following his disastrous debate performance.

Even if she succeeds in her plan to “earn and win” the Democratic nomination, Harris will come up against the most feral campaign machine in years. Trump is known for misogynistic and racially charged rhetoric that could turn the next few months into the most searing general election in modern memory.

The pressure on Harris from Democrats is also immense. The Vice-President has shown signs of improving her political skills recently, but that’s never been her forte. This year, party leaders are not just investing in her as the last barrier to a new era of unrestrained conservative rule that could obliterate the achievements of the Biden and Barack Obama presidencies. After replacing Biden as the figurehead of the campaign, Harris is now leading an effort that has as its foundation an attempt to save democracy from Trump. She has just more than 100 days to pull this all off.

Views expressed are personal