Revised Met forecast sparks drought fears

While releasing the second stage long range forecast of monsoon, Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan said that the rain will be 88 per cent instead of 93 per cent of <g data-gr-id="55">earlier</g> forecast.

In its current update, IMD says there is about 90 <g data-gr-id="30">per cent</g> probability of El Niño conditions prevailing during the south-west monsoon season. El Niño conditions are likely to strengthen further and reach moderate strength during the monsoon season.

 “For 2015, the IMD’s prediction of an overall 93 per cent probability of a weak monsoon is a worrying cause for all of us. The onset has been delayed by a week already and there is no certainty on when the monsoon will arrive,” Vardhan <g data-gr-id="34">said,</g> while dedicating the country’s <g data-gr-id="33">high performance</g> computing (HPC) facility – Bhaskara.

However, talking to Millennium Post, Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said: “There is nothing to panic about it. The government is ready to tackle the drought-like situation if it happens due to deficient rain.”

“Given the fact that about 60 <g data-gr-id="36">per cent</g> of the country’s cultivable land is rain-fed and low rain will directly hit the farm sector. The monsoon is considered below normal when the rainfall range is 90-96 per cent of LPA and is considered deficient if it falls below 90,” an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said.

In its earlier forecast released in April, IMD had said that monsoon rain is likely to be 93 per cent of LPA. The main reason for the subdued forecast is fear of the onset of El Niño weather phenomenon – the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which triggers atmospheric changes that influence the progress of monsoon rains over India.