Refugee crisis could shake up German political landscape in 2016

For the past decade, German politics has been a relatively dull affair, with Angela Merkel dominating at the national level and the major parties in agreement on all the big issues, from euro zone bailouts and refugees to the phase-out of nuclear energy.

But that may change in 2016, when five of Germany’s 16 states hold elections in the build-up to the next federal vote a year later.

Not only is Chancellor Merkel looking more vulnerable than ever before because of her welcoming stance towards the hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing war in the Middle East, but the rise of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has injected a new element of surprise into the political landscape.

Add to that an unprecedented splintering of the electorate, which means that six parties have a legitimate shot of entering most state parliaments, and Germany’s normally cozy, consensual politics begins to look a bit less predictable, and potentially more divisive, than it has in a long time.

The wild card is the threat of an attack by Islamist extremists on German soil, a risk highlighted on New Year’s Eve when authorities received a tip that Iraqi and Syrian nationals were planning suicide bombings at train stations in Munich.

It could be fatal for Merkel, officials in Berlin acknowledge in private, if such an attack were carried out successfully by people who entered Europe with the flood of migrants, as was the case with two of the men involved in the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris.