Rajan’s 2-year score card: Tames retail inflation from rampaging 9.8% to 3.8%

Raghuram Govind Rajan took charge as the 23rd Governor of RBI on September 4, 2013 for a three-year term, amid a bleeding rupee threatening to plunge to 70 levels, very high current account deficit, growth screeching south and rating agencies threatening to junk the sovereign.

On his inauguration, the noted monetary economist made several big-bang announcements that promised to change the financial sector landscape radically and to his credit he has successfully implemented many of them in the past two years. The Governor successfully brought down retail inflation to 3.8 per cent in July from 9.8 per cent in September 2013.

Also, many analysts and marketmen described chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian’s Thursday’s statement that Rajan should start fearing deflation and not inflation, as a political statement to arm-twist the Governor and devoid of any merit. The only few big misses of Rajan are the sudden fall of the rupee following the China crisis, and the massive spike in bad loans that almost doubled. But his achievements, on every other <g data-gr-id="62">front</g> dwarf these shortcomings.

Also, probably the biggest criticism that he will face when he leaves the 19th floor corner room at Mint Road, will be that Rajan was a party to the Reserve Bank losing most of its powers and autonomy — as he has accepted the government formula of not having a veto power for the Governor in the proposed Monetary Policy Committee. Leading economist and industry veteran D K Pant, chief economist at India Ratings, has described Rajan as “a person with a vision”. “Rajan has brought in a new dimension to the monetary policy. When he initially took over, the rupee was in a tailspin but his reforms have restored investor confidence,” said Pant.

Meanwhile, amid concerns in India and other global markets about uncertainty over a rate hike in the US, Rajan on Friday sought to play down fears saying markets should not be scared of volatility as it would be transient in nature. He also said finance “is only a lubricant to growth” and it would be the overall economic policies of the countries that would determine their basic growth momentum.

Addressing the plenary session of the B20 meet, an informal grouping of business leaders from G20 countries, Rajan referred to issues facing the global economy and said the problems include people saving more and spending less, low productivity and low investments. But the solution is that “we should not be scared of volatility”, he said.

Referring to uncertainties about a rate hike in the USA, he said return to monetary policy normalcy would address the concerns over volatility in the future. Rajan also warned that the central banks globally might have engendered excessive fragility in the system.

The B20 grouping engages with the G20 governments on behalf of the international business community and it is organising its own meeting here on the sidelines of the G20 minister-level meetings.

Marketmen are enthused with Rajan, stating that he is the best that has happened to the country in the last two years.  “You could not have a better person during the last two crisis years. He has brought in structural changes which may not have immediately yielded results, but we may see it happening in future,” said a market dealer who wished not to be named. 

“Rajan is a man with a global view and he has brought in changes, which we may not agree now, but I am sure those will be positive for the economy in the long run,” is how another bond dealer described the Rajan years. Similarly, Dun & Bradstreet India senior economist Arun Singh said Rajan’s biggest achievements are “his success in containing CPI inflation and inflation expectations as well as regaining investor confidence in the economy.”

“The Governor has also brought about some important changes to the monetary policy framework. The measures he has taken to bring about resolution of a <g data-gr-id="60">rising pil</g>e of stressed assets will show results in the years to come,” Singh said. On the macro side, most of the credit for turning around the country from the “Fragile Five” in 2013 to the “only few bright spots” in 2015, Rajan has successfully brought back the economy from the brink- a situation the country had faced only in June 1991.

His most singular achievement is on the inflation front — getting it down from 9.8 per cent in September 2013, to a healthy 3.78 per cent in July 2015-the lowest since the 1990s, while WPI has been in the negative territory for the past nine consecutive months with July print coming in at -4.05 per cent, the lowest in the past three decades.

However, the Governor feels that there is more distance to be covered on the same and cited the elevated household expectations on price rise as a worry, which can potentially inhibit him from delivering on the Finance Ministry’s wish for a rate cut.