Pakistan’s tryst with democracy
2 April 2013 6:32 AM IST
As Pakistan inches closer to the historic 2013 general elections, there is more brewing than what meets the eye. While a military coup is being ruled out by most analysts, unpredictability has been the most predicted outcome. The polls are slated to be conducted on 11 May and the reconstructed election commission is trying hard to sail through.
It wouldn’t be an easy bet for any incumbent with challenges like ethnic and sectarian violence, economic downfall and rise of Islamist organisations hovering around, especially with deteriorating relations with their key ally United States of America.
Moeed Yusuf, South Asian advisor at the US Institute of Peace in the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, told Millennium Post over the phone: ‘I choose not to predict anything as Pakistan is headed for the most unpredictable election it has ever seen.’ The generals have not intervened ‘visibly’ in the past five years. However, military headquarters is pondering their future equation if a second democratically elected government comes in.
As the director of Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) D Suba Chandran puts it, ‘Military will play the wait-and-watch game. They will see how the events unfold and if there is indeed a hung parliament they will notice how the politicians react. As far as elections are concerned, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani will keep away from it.’
Law and order continues to deteriorate with Karachi witnessing immense violence with Hazara minority killings in Balochistan and Baloch ethnic population jostling with the centre with separatist sentiments. Sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni Muslims has seen an increase. All this makes a good old case for the military to step in.
Political parties in Pakistan are as vulnerable as before. Suba Chandran says, ‘Ruling Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz undoubtedly remain the two main parties. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehriq Insaf is coming up but people who are in love with Imran may not even have voting rights. It is a web-based party.’ Yusuf, however, believes that apart from PPP and PML-N, PTI is an important contender in this elections. None see any any significance in Musharraf contesting the polls.
Last but not the least, the role of civil society (media) and judiciary would be the crucial factor in upcoming elections. Judiciary had played a major role in ouster of General Musharaff in 2008 and two prime ministers since then.
It wouldn’t be an easy bet for any incumbent with challenges like ethnic and sectarian violence, economic downfall and rise of Islamist organisations hovering around, especially with deteriorating relations with their key ally United States of America.
Moeed Yusuf, South Asian advisor at the US Institute of Peace in the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, told Millennium Post over the phone: ‘I choose not to predict anything as Pakistan is headed for the most unpredictable election it has ever seen.’ The generals have not intervened ‘visibly’ in the past five years. However, military headquarters is pondering their future equation if a second democratically elected government comes in.
As the director of Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) D Suba Chandran puts it, ‘Military will play the wait-and-watch game. They will see how the events unfold and if there is indeed a hung parliament they will notice how the politicians react. As far as elections are concerned, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani will keep away from it.’
Law and order continues to deteriorate with Karachi witnessing immense violence with Hazara minority killings in Balochistan and Baloch ethnic population jostling with the centre with separatist sentiments. Sectarian violence between Shia and Sunni Muslims has seen an increase. All this makes a good old case for the military to step in.
Political parties in Pakistan are as vulnerable as before. Suba Chandran says, ‘Ruling Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz undoubtedly remain the two main parties. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehriq Insaf is coming up but people who are in love with Imran may not even have voting rights. It is a web-based party.’ Yusuf, however, believes that apart from PPP and PML-N, PTI is an important contender in this elections. None see any any significance in Musharraf contesting the polls.
Last but not the least, the role of civil society (media) and judiciary would be the crucial factor in upcoming elections. Judiciary had played a major role in ouster of General Musharaff in 2008 and two prime ministers since then.
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