Yet another milestone

The 25th meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State, held in Tianjin, provided a timely opportunity for India, in the midst of tariff tensions, to engage with the Eurasian nations and push its multi-alignment strategy. In the presence of dominant world powers, Russia and China, India emphasised sovereignty and non-coercive connectivity while equally welcoming opportunities in security and trade. Evidently, India’s performance in the Summit has restored its position as the voice of the global south, as reflected by the softened stance of the US towards India when President Trump recently praised the Prime Minister as a great leader and stressed the importance of Indo-US friendship.

India’s role in the Tianjin Summit, though it aroused mixed reactions, has definitely showcased India’s time-tested diplomatic maturity and strength in successfully wading through the chaotic trade relations with the US without rubbing anyone as the wrong side or hastening to take any side. Most significantly, the member nations have endorsed India’s bold stand against terrorism through the Tianjin Declaration, condemning terrorism, including the Pahalgam attack and rejecting double standards on terror. However, the resolutions of the Summit, on issues of regional security, economic cooperation, and counterterrorism, are not devoid of challenges to India because balancing the bilateral ties with Russia, China and the US in the face of today’s near ‘polarisation’ will be a delicate act.

Experts say that the summit has provided a thaw in Indo-China relations in the midst of mistrust due to ongoing border disputes. Both heads of State termed the new beginning of relations as “partners, not rivals,” agreeing on border stability, resuming direct flights, and the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. It is expected that tensions will soon reduce along the LAC through confidence-building measures like the withdrawal of troops. With regard to Indo-Russia relations, the “time-tested ties” of the 70s and 80s seem to be revived with new vigour. Let’s not forget that, after all, Russia - the then Soviet Union - was the original friend of India, that stood by India in the worst crises, such as the Bangladesh war, when American warships nearly entered Indian waters.

According to Reuters, the Summit has enhanced India’s influence in the “Global South,” positioning it as a bridge between Eurasian powers and the West. Al Jazeera observed that the Summit provided a forum to denounce protectionism and paved the way to markets in the member nations of the SCO for Indian goods. India’s energy security concerns are addressed by continued Russian oil imports, providing relative immunity from Western sanctions. The summit also helped strengthen regional security cooperation on Afghanistan, counter-narcotics, and transnational threats, in tandem with India’s interests in Central Asia. Opportunities for intelligence-sharing with Russia and Central Asian states, enhancing India’s anti-terror framework, cooperation in AI, and access to funds for India’s infrastructure projects through the SCO Development Bank are other material benefits for India.

To some, the cons in the deal equally deserve attention. Retaliatory tariff threats from the US and dependence on China-dominated projects are seen as potential issues for the future. According to Christopher Bodeen (AP News), loss of economic leverage with the Western Bloc might hit India’s IT, pharma, and textile sectors, while SCO’s focus on non-Western models offers limited immediate alternatives. Abhijit Benerjee, the Nobel Laureate, harbours similar fears when he says that the summit reinforced perceptions of India tilting toward a China-Russia axis, which may further complicate the US-India trade stalemate. The economist cautions against over-optimism. Assel Satubaldina, (Astana Times), sees limited tangible gains for India since the grants and loans pledged in the declaration, primarily benefit China-led initiatives, with India’s share unclear. CNN and AP News voiced a concern that alignment with Russia amid the Ukraine war may attract Western criticism, potentially isolating India in global forums like the UN.

However, the pros seem to outweigh the cons. The fears of either ‘overreliance’ of India on China, or the loss of markets in the West, or the negative consequences of a perceived tilt towards the China-Russia axis are more hypothetical than real. The reasons being: firstly, India is not an export-dependent economy, secondly, India’s defence preparedness is robust and far superior to what it was in 60s or 70s, and thirdly, India is a fast-growing economy with domestic peace and political stability. The worst-case scenario of isolating India - the largest democracy - in global forums due to perceived alignment with Russia is equally preposterous, when the forums like WTO, IPCC (under UNFCCC), UNRWA, UNICEF, WFP are themselves grappling with an existential crisis, with countries like the US and Israel openly defying UN conventions and protocols.

As the mother of the non-aligned movement, India always remained neutral, staying away from the crossfire during the Cold War between both the communist and the capitalist blocs. Sovereignty, mutual cooperation and non-interference have been the basic principles of Indian foreign policy. The Nehruvian legacy continues even today, albeit with a few modifications demanded by pragmatism. While the Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty (1971) entered into by Mrs. Gandhi was a counter to a threat perception from a warming US-China relationship, the full-scale diplomatic peace process with Pakistan, initiated by Mr. Vajpayee, highlighted by the inauguration of the Delhi-Lahore bus service in 1999, reflected India’s good faith in resolving disputes in an amicable atmosphere. However, Mr. Vajpayee’s commitment to India’s sovereignty resonated in his famous exhortation on Kashmir: ‘Insaniyat, Jamhuriyat and Kashmiriyat’.

Dr. Manmohan Singh made significant efforts in building strategic partnerships, particularly with Western countries, in order to carry forward his epic Economic Liberalisation agenda. He also continued and strengthened the “Act East Policy,” which focused on building ties with Southeast Asian nations. After 2014, Indian foreign policy has reached new heights as the focus shifted to increased self-reliance, active diplomacy, and to play the role as “Vishwa Bandhu” (Friend to All). The vision is to reduce reliance on foreign aid, enter into strategic partnerships and engage in multiple global forums like the G20, QUAD, and BRICS. It may sound like a departure from non-alignment, but it effectively is multi-alignment, preserving the basic spirit of non-alignment. The new approach has certainly paid off as India acquired the image of ‘Vishwa Guru’ and the leader of the Global South. The tariff war with the US and the consequent discomfitures unfolded are an aberration. But evidently, India wasted no time in seizing the opportunity in Tianjin to salvage the damage to its interests by engaging with Eurasian powers to promote cooperation as against the headwinds of Trade Wars from the West.

However, too much seems to be read into the Tianjin Summit vis-à-vis India. There is neither a paradigm shift in the policy forming an axis with Eurasian powers nor is there a tilt towards a particular bloc. On the contrary, it is only business as usual for India to explore opportunities to stay connected with the friendly countries to further trade and cooperation while equally safeguarding its sovereignty and security concerns. Politics is the art of the possible, they say, and there are no permanent friends or enemies. The Tianjin summit is another milestone in India’s foreign policy that showcases the wisdom and farsightedness of the Indian leadership in times of crises.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a former Additional Chief Secretary of Chhattisgarh