Vicious ramifications
Taliban’s takeover has serious security implications for India and its neighbours
Afghanistan has been witnessing multiple happenings that are unfolding at a speed that is difficult to keep pace with. By the time this piece goes to the press, many more interesting developments must have happened. In any case, preliminary analysis in the immediate aftermath of the Taliban occupation of Kabul seems imperative. First and foremost, the 'might' of the superpower, the US, is shockingly exposed. The way the US troops engaged on the Afghan soil for nearly two long decades, and have decided to leave the country at this point in time, has been most disappointing — belying trust of the allies the world over. The poorly equipped Afghan troops were left in a lurch to fend for themselves at a time when they needed the US and NATO support, both militarily and politically.
Such betrayal apart, the US intelligence machinery, particularly the CIA, stands exposed to nothing short of smithereens. Their capacity to draw up a proper contingency plan to make an honourable exit was never in place, although the US was crying hoarse that it would withdraw troops before August 31. To put things in historical perspective, it may be germane to mention Sir Alexander Burnes, the Scotsman who turned into a spy cum diplomat and operated as early as 1839 to raise native friends to espy and report to the British empire about the activities in Afghanistan. Sadly, he was assassinated in 1841; he was able to raise several sources from the traditional statecraft of human intelligence. If he could do it, then why couldn't a gigantic and affluent CIA with its technological and electronic intelligence do it almost two centuries later, when all the sophisticated means were available? The US administration may hold its intelligence arm to account for this lapse, or else, one wouldn't have seen the chaotic scene that the US left behind after the Taliban assumed power. The Biden administration, and more specifically, the Pentagon and the CIA have to answer that.
Talking about the security implications in the region, referring to the cakewalk by the Taliban in re-annexing Afghanistan, Pakistan is the first country that started distancing itself from the US, a trend it had already embarked upon, most likely due to Chinese pressure. It is more vocal in anti-US and brazenly pro-Taliban rhetoric. Other than its steadily decreasing proximity with China, Russia and Iran, the US has lost a longtime ally in Pakistan due to a trust deficit after the Taliban's ascendancy is now complete. With China's open support to the Taliban and 'recognition' of its existence, it is set to reinforce its ties with Iran and Russia vis a vis Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
Pakistan was all along wary about Ashraf Ghani's Presidentship due to his trust in India, now that he too exited from the scene and that too most cowardly, Pakistan has heaved a sigh of relief. It's also trying to reach out to Afghan friends of India to wean them away. This was evident in the recent meeting between erstwhile Northern Alliance leaders, brothers of Ahmad Shah Masood, who were sworn enemies of Pakistan in the earlier Taliban regime but have become turncoats now. This was visible when they were seen in Islamabad on August 16 in the company of Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. Perhaps India has to recalibrate its Afghan policy so as to remain significant in Afghanistan. Under no circumstances, Pakistan should gain any upper hand to woo India's proven Afghan friends. Any such move needs to be neutralized.
As things unfold, Pakistan has started moving several extra miles to warm up to the new Taliban regime. Prime Minister Imran Khan, at a very recent function, endorsed Taliban policies by saying it has unchained shackles from slavery of foreign rule. This statement was unbecoming of an Oxford-educated, cricketer-turned-politician. A calculated restraint is certainly called for as caving into the Taliban mindset means that Imran Khan is, by implication, supporting religious extremism and a regressive social and political rule.
There are apprehensions in certain quarters in India that the Taliban might now focus on Kashmir and other targets in India. This looks a little far-fetched assessment at least for now. No doubt, ISIS and Al Qaeda activists have been freed by the Taliban and the foreign elements must be pressurizing Taliban leadership to take on Indian targets but they are aware of the Indian alertness. This said, the real peril lies in the role of Pakistan who will now try its best to use the Taliban to wage a proxy war in India. That must be thwarted and preempted at any cost. Again, the intelligence agencies must be doubling up their efforts to foil such plans.
Among other countries in the region in South Asia, Bangladesh has noticed a large number of fundamentalist and extremist groups exhibiting extraordinary interest in the rise of the Taliban. Many are thought to be trying to go to Afghanistan to firm up ties in furtherance of their terror agenda. Here also, Indo-Bangladesh Joint Counter Terror measures could help burst the plans before it's too late. The situation, either way, is combustible because, in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Maldives, Malaysia etc. one may see a new wave of religious radicalization which will be a serious detriment to the region. As militant groups are emboldened by the capture of power by the Taliban, a statue of iconic Sikh ruler Maharaja Ranjit Singh was vandalized by the militant zealots in Lahore. This signals that in Pakistan, supporters of the Taliban have scant respect for an elected government and they may have a field day in running amok, putting tranquillity in jeopardy.
The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal