Veering towards ferment

Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister, AK Abdul Momen, while speaking at a seminar in Dhaka on May 20, urged leading countries with heavy investments in Myanmar to come forward for a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis. He emphasized that such a solution would be in their own interests and would protect their considerable investments, as, if the situation deteriorates, they could easily succumb to the perils of religious extremism. The seminar, titled "Rohingya Repatriation: A Pathway to Peace, Stability, and Harmony in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) Region," was organized under the aegis of Diplomats World, a publication that covers cultural, legal, regional, global security, politics, and other issues.

In his keynote address, Momen further stated that if the frustrated Rohingyas turned to terrorism, it would endanger the investments of large countries in the entire region. The Bangladesh Foreign Minister expressed hope and mentioned that both the USA and China have engaged in senior-level focal points to resolve the Rohingya issue, which is a major challenge for the country. He optimistically predicted that a resolution to the Rohingya problem would occur sooner rather than later. The seminar also featured speeches from Abul Hasan Chowdhury, former State Minister for Foreign Affairs and Executive Advisor of the publication, and Nazinur Rahim, Executive Editor, among others.

Meanwhile, credible reports on the security situation within the Cox's Bazar operational area indicated a complex, fluid, and unpredictable scenario. According to a fresh security assessment conducted by professionals, drug-related crimes, road accidents, and fires remained major threats in Cox's Bazar. However, the security situation on Bhasan Char Island remained calm. In response to the sharp spike in criminal activities across various refugee camps, where United Nations High Commissioner for Rohingyas (UNHCR) personnel are present for close supervision, a number of interim UN Security Risk Management Measures have been implemented. Despite these measures, the security reports mentioned at least three shooting incidents across refugee Camps numbers 9, 15, 17, 19, and Nayapara. These incidents resulted in three deaths, one injury, and the arrest of at least seven people by the authorities. During one shooting incident in Camp 17, four UNHCR personnel were in the vicinity and had to seek shelter in a nearby safer location until the area was cleared by the authorities for their safe return.

Significant drug seizures were also reported across Cox's Bazar, suggesting that the ongoing trafficking of illicit commodities, such as yaba, is still rampant in Teknaf and Ukhiya.

Earlier, on May 9, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested four militants belonging to Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) in the Barasala area of Sylhet Division. According to the RAB, one of the arrested members was identified as a key financier responsible for coordinating between the group and another terrorist organization, Ansar al-Islam. The RAB seized several electronic devices, 2,00,000 takas (USD 1,846), and key documents from the accused. This seems a dangerous trend, as if it has the propensity of assuming serious proportions.

Additionally, on May 15, members of the Bangladesh Armed Police Battalion (BAPBn) carried out security operations against suspected armed criminals at Camp 17, Block A of Ukhiya in Cox's Bazar. Initial reports indicate that a suspected member of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) was killed during the operation, and two other suspected ARSA members in possession of weapons were arrested. Furthermore, on May 12, a Rohingya individual was killed during a gunfight in Camp 15 in Ukhia Upazila, Cox's Bazar. Unverified reports suggest that the gunfight was between ARSA and Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) members vying for control over territory in the camps. These alarming developments indicate an uneasy calm, and peace and tranquillity remain doubtful with ARSA and RSO displaying belligerent postures.

Simultaneously, a number of anti-drug operations took place across Cox's Bazar. In one notable case, members of the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) seized a shipment of 170,000 yaba tablets in the Sabrang area of Teknaf Upazila, Cox's Bazar. In another incident, police arrested two drug dealers in possession of 3,000 yaba tablets in Bakkhali of Rajakhali Union, Pekua Upazila, Cox's Bazar. Additionally, RAB members apprehended two drug dealers in possession of 70,000 yaba tablets in the Maheshkhali Para area, Ward 5, Teknaf Upazila, Cox's Bazar. These incidents confirm suspicions of large-scale drug trafficking in the entire region, allegedly involving the Rohingyas.

As the election dates in Bangladesh are approaching and political canvassing is gaining momentum, the activities of Rohingyas in and outside the sheltered camps are showing an upward trend. It is crucial to contain these activities in a timely manner to prevent them from spiralling out of control or reaching a point of no return.

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal