Usurpation tactics?

Pakistan has been hit by a wave of terrorism in the recent months, with the spate of attacks and bombings taking place particularly in the western provinces bordering Afghanistan. The spike in these attacks comes within six months of the outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended its ceasefire with the government as their talks failed in November last year. The number of terror strikes in Pakistan posted a phenomenal increase of 73 per cent during 21 months since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, compared to the corresponding period of time before their takeover. Overall, the incidents of terrorist violence grew significantly inside Pakistan since August 15, 2021 when the Taliban took control of Kabul. The number of people killed in the attacks in Pakistan from August 2021 to April 2023 (21 months) has also risen by a whopping 138 per cent, a survey by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) said. Another report quoted by newspaper Dawn said, January 2023 was the deadliest month since 2018, in which 134 people lost their lives — a 139 per cent spike — and 254 received injuries in at least 44 militant attacks across Pakistan.

Experts and Pakistan watchers have opined that the banned TTP was trying to forge its links with Baloch separatists and local militant outfits based in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, a development which will likely exacerbate the already precarious security situation in Pakistan. Unlike in the past, it is for the first time that TTP has started carrying out terrorist attacks in the Pashtoon-dominated areas of Balochistan. They said the TTP and local militant groups were taking control of the space left by mainstream and nationalist political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and were now promoting political causes so that they are no longer dubbed as jihadi or religious extremist outfits.

Most of the recent attacks have been carried out by the TTP and have occurred in the provinces bordering Afghanistan, specially Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The last fortnight of May witnessed a spike in the terror strikes which also involved blasts targeting at least three girls’ schools. Three persons were killed in an explosion in Peshawar on May 19, in which 200 grams of explosives were used, police said. The bloodshed came days after the military declared a new offensive against militants amid a resurgence of attacks in recent months, including a Peshawar mosque bombing that killed over 100 people in February. On May 19 itself, the Emir of Jamaat-i-Islami Sirajul Haq narrowly escaped a “suicide attack” that targeted his convoy in Balochistan’s Zhob, while six others were injured. Police said Haq’s vehicle was partly damaged in the incident, though the Emir remained unhurt. The attack was condemned by all sections of Pakistani polity, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who also directed the Balochistan government to investigate the incident from all angles and bring the perpetrators to book. This attack was followed three days later by another strike in Mirali area of North Waziristan where two government schools for girls were blown up at night. Police said no loss of life was reported in these separate incidents. The next day saw another attack on a girls school in which the entire structure of the Government Girls Middle School Hafizabad in the area of Hassu Khel in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was destroyed. These educational institutions together enrolled about 900 girl students. However, the intent of the terrorists was clear as the attacks affecting the education of the girl child totally matched with the aims and objectives of the TTP. Earlier in May, six schoolteachers were killed in a shooting at a school in the Kurram district of Kh¬¬yber Pakhtunkhwa, shor¬t¬¬ly after another tea¬cher was gunned down in a drive-by shooting in the upper Kurram area.

A large number of police and security forces personnel have also been killed trying to engage the terrorists, mostly from the TTP. On May 23, four personnel of the Frontier Constabulary and two private security guards were killed in a rocket-propelled grenade attack on a private exploration company’s gas factory in Hangu district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A senior police officer said before escaping to nearby North Waziristan, where they had originated, the terrorists also destroyed a solar power plant at the gas well. He said that a combined search operation is underway in the region. Numerous terrorist groups, particularly the outlawed TTP, have been operating out of isolated mountains in the northwest for years, attacking security personnel and infrastructure as part of their war against the state.

A report titled ‘Pakistan’s Afghan Perspective and Policy Options’, brought out by Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), says that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces had witnessed a marked impact of the Afghan situation in terms of terrorist violence, where the number of attacks during the 21 months since Taliban takeover surged by 92 and 81 per cent respectively. However, the number of terrorist attacks in Punjab, Sindh and Islamabad Capital Territory has seen a relative decline since the Taliban takeover as compared to corresponding 21 months pre-August 2021. It warned that these emerging trends of terrorism would only add to Pakistan’s persistent security challenge in terms of Taliban militancy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the erstwhile tribal areas, Baloch nationalist insurgency in Balochistan, ethnic violence in Sindh, as well as growing religious extremism and radicalism. “Protracted over a longer period of time, such an environment of insecurity, militancy and violence can pose serious threat to political and economic stability as well,” the report said.

Pakistani newspapers also reported on a recent brainstorming session in Islamabad the developments in Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistani society and polity, which was attended by experts on security and Afghan affairs, academics, diplomats, lawmakers and journalists among others. Two major points which emerged from the seminar were (a) that Pakistan should revisit its policy towards Afghanistan and (b) talks with the banned TTP, which failed last year, should continue. Islamabad should also continue to engage with he ruling Taliban in Afghanistan.

Addressing the event, former Senator Afrasiab Khattak said the presence of militant organizations like TTP and Daesh or Islamic State in Afghanistan could provoke a new conflict and a second war against terror, which would have serious consequences for the region. He called for a change in Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan, dubbing the earlier one as flawed. Defence analyst Maj Gen (Retd) Inam Ul Haque said the banned TTP had the potential to spoil Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan. Observing that the TTP and border management were two irritants in Pak-Afghan relations, he was quoted as saying: “If Pakistan deals with both correctly, then it can improve its relationship with Afghanistan.” Former Deputy Speaker of the Lower House of the Afghan Parliament Mirwais Yasini pointed out that the core issue was to build trust between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the same vein, Deputy Head of Mission of Norway in Islamabad Maha Noor Khan said her country was among a few nations that always supported the continuance of the “dialogue with the (Afghan) Taliban.” She said that promoting conflict resolution and reconciliation was the central aspect of Norwegian foreign policy. She also expressed concern over the situation faced by the Afghan women and said “We underline the need for a more representative and inclusive government (in Afghanistan),” the media reports said. Adnan Amir, a Quetta-based journalist was quoted as saying that the TTP and separatists have increased their attacks in the Pashtoon areas of the province of Balochistan since Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021. “TTP has increased its footprints in the province as at least three local Baloch militant groups have recently joined it,” he said. The TTP, he said, was also promoting its political agenda in the province by openly sympathising with the cause of the Baloch people. Amir said there was also no clarity about Pakistan’s policy for Afghanistan and the Islamabad was also unclear about how to deal with the TTP since talks with the proscribed group broke down last year.

The growing attacks in the volatile border region only shows that the TTP was getting ready to follow the footsteps of their ally, the Afghan Taliban. The TTP has been increasing its numerical strength through mergers and joint operations with local militant groups and filling up its weapons cache, courtesy the US-NATO arms left behind in Afghanistan. Now, with a solid organisational foundation and its eyes set on the Pakistani state, the TTP appears ready to follow the Afghan Taliban and take control of territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has emboldened and strengthened the TTP. With the Taliban controlling Afghanistan and being sympathetic to it, the TTP now enjoys a level of strategic depth which it did not have before. Hence, it is not just for Pakistan, but the entire global community, to take note of these developments and strategise and act. (EOM)

Views expressed are personal