Transient terrain

Within days of returning as 47th President of the US, Donald Trump spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on phone and discussed India-US ties. President Trump later announced that PM Modi would most likely visit the White House in February.

In India’s neighbourhood, Trump decided to stop the aid to Bangladesh, giving indications about his tough stance on Bangladesh in near future. Given that India and the US share close ties at several levels, including trade, defence, strategic and diplomatic, it might be argued that Bangladesh would find it impossible to exist as an ally of India.

As recent developments in Bangladesh post the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August last year indicate, it is clear that it is being used as a buffer state by Pakistan against India. Given Pakistan’s precarious and fragile situation, and India’s stand that Pakistan must stop supporting terrorism to engage in any kind of dialogue, it is evident that Pakistan has taken a pro-active stance on terrorism by utilising Bangladesh against India.

The US National Security Advisor and the Trump Administration's State Department were briefed on the Pakistani conspiracy by India's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, and External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar. PM Modi and the US ambassador recently met in Delhi and at the same time, the US warned Bangladesh about the designs of Pakistan to aid terrorism.

Bangladesh and Pakistan have developed warmth towards each other over the past few weeks. A high-level delegation of six Bangladesh Army officials returned to Dhaka on Saturday after a week-long visit to Pakistan that ended without a formal statement. Nevertheless, a high-level Pakistani military group consisting of four members landed in Dhaka on Tuesday night for a three-day visit. Surprisingly, neither country has issued any official statement regarding this visit. However, the secrecy surrounding the visit has raised concerns among Indian security experts for two reasons: the effort to maintain absolute confidentiality about the visit, and the second is the identity of the leader of the Pakistani delegation, Lieutenant General Asim Malik, who also heads Pakistan's spy agency, ISI.

According to sources, a representative of Pakistan's military delegation, who was visiting as part of ISI, spoke with several Paresh Barua's Ulfa (Independent) group leaders in Chittagong on Thursday. It is reported that the delegation includes another top ISI official. According to Indian intelligence, the ISI has a well-defined plan to rekindle terrorism in Assam and other northeastern states.

In the past, militants in the northeastern states have received training and weapons from the Paresh-led (Ulfa-I) group. The majority of this training took place in isolated regions of Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts. However, military actions destroyed these training facilities after Sheikh Hasina took power.

A source claims that Paresh, now living in the Yunnan province of China, participated directly in this conversation in Bangladesh. Ulfa leader Nayan Medhi is in Chittagong and is believed to have discussions with the ISI chief.

The Pakistani military team arrived at Dhaka airport on an Emirates Airline flight (flight number EK586) from Dubai on Tuesday. The team, headed by the Director General of ISI, was welcomed at the airport by Brigadier Mehdi, a top officer of Bangladesh's military intelligence organisation, DGFI. Major General Shahid Amir Afsar, ISI's Director General of Analysis (DG A), is also travelling with Malik, according to sources. SSG Chief Muhammad Usman Latif and Major General Alam Amir Awan are also important members. The Pakistani military delegation also visited Chittagong and Cox's Bazar.

Security experts have voiced concern over possible ties to ARSA, a militant Rohingya group that is known for holding training sessions. The intelligence-sharing agreements between the Pakistani and Bangladeshi militaries also worry India's security services. A delegation from the Bangladeshi Army visited Pakistan to begin discussions on the subject, and the Pakistani Army's reciprocal visit served to conclude the discussions.

Intelligence officials are concerned that Pakistan may obtain vital information about Bangladesh's border with West Bengal and the northeastern provinces. Intelligence officials are concerned that eventually China may get this information through Pakistan. Notably, neither this visit nor the recent visit of Bangladeshi army chiefs to Pakistan was publicly announced by the Bangladesh Army's Public Relations Department (ISPR).

The ISPR confirmed, in a statement, two days after the team from Bangladesh returned, that six army officers, under the command of Lieutenant General Kamrul Hasan, travelled to Pakistan from January 13 to 17. Others think that the Bangladesh ISPR was forced to make this announcement after pictures of the visiting Bangladeshi officers were released by Pakistan's DGPR (Public Relations Office of the Pakistani Army). Despite this, neither ISPR nor DGPR has commented on the ISI officials' visit to Bangladesh.

Security experts in India are intrigued by the reason for this visit. According to security experts from Bangladesh and Dhaka University's Department of International Relations, Pakistan might be trying to place missiles in Bangladesh in retaliation against India. A former Indian diplomat claims that Muhammad Yunus' effective interim administration in Bangladesh, which is backed by Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamic groups, has "opened a new chapter of anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh." The visit of the ISI chief emphasises how urgent it is for Pakistan to take advantage of this chance.

According to reports, hundreds of Islamist militants have been freed from prisons close to the border by the Yunus government of Bangladesh.

Ansarullah Bangla Team leader Maulana Jasimuddin Rahmani, who was recently released, is heading the reorganisation plan of militants. Sources claim that the ISI has set up a new "hub" in Bangladesh where jihadists and militants are being trained, organised, and armed with explosives and weapons. According to reports, "sleeper cells" and their networks are being activated throughout India.

Several Bangladeshi terrorists have already been captured after entering India through West Bengal and Assam. In response, the Indian government has increased border patrols.

Indian border guarding forces have increased surveillance and measures are being implemented to prevent unlawful crossings in areas where barbed wire fencing cannot be installed for a variety of reasons. The crucial 'Chicken's Neck' region close to Siliguri, which connects Northeast India to the rest of the nation, has come under scrutiny.

For the first time, Pakistani Navy-organised biennial naval exercise in Karachi 'AMAN,' is set to see participation from the Bangladesh Navy in March. A final decision on this was made during the Pakistani military delegation’s visit to Dhaka.

Views expressed are personal